🥇 Everyone's a Winner

Can't lose when you’re selling lottery tickets to yourself.

A Free Lunch newsletter archive of 2 November 2026

Good morning!

Every bubble reaches the stage at which the most serious people alive start writing very serious memos explaining why this one isn't. AI got there a while ago. Fund managers who crawled out of the dot-com wreck now argue, with the authority of men who would recognise a bubble on sight, that this time the revenue is real. In October the people who lend to the industry gave their own answer. CoreWeave, listed in 2025, rents out Nvidia chips by the hour and carries about $50B of debt. Over the month its shares lost nearly 30% and its bonds traded at yields close to 15%, the territory where the bond market files companies it doubts will repay in full.

The bulls have a point. This year, for the first time, companies are on course to spend more renting cloud chips to run models ($23.3B) than to train them ($19B): somebody is using the stuff. Whether anybody pays enough for it is another matter. OpenAI booked $13.1B of revenue last year and plans to spend about $600B on computing power by 2030. Until customers cover that bill, investors and lenders pay it, and some of the investors are the sellers.

Nvidia supplied $30B of the $122B OpenAI raised this spring, and OpenAI spends its billions on computing power that runs largely on Nvidia chips. Amazon pledged up to $50B in the same round and, on the day it was announced, extended its $38B cloud contract with OpenAI by $100B over eight years. Nvidia also sells CoreWeave its chips, owns a stake in it and has agreed to buy whatever capacity CoreWeave cannot rent out until 2032, an order initially valued at $6.3B. Part of the money goes out as investment and comes back as sales. The more autarkic the loop, the more spectacular the growth looks, right up to the day a customer outside it decides the output isn't worth the invoice.

The telecom boom ran the same experiment. Lucent and Nortel, the equipment giants of the 1990s, lent billions to new carriers so they could buy Lucent and Nortel switches. The sales were booked, the carriers went bust, and Lucent shareholders lost more than 90% of their money. The internet turned out to be every bit as real as promised. That was no comfort to anyone who had paid the 1999 price for it. The memos are right that AI works. CoreWeave's bondholders have read them too, and still price its debt at around 15%.

🥇 Everyone's a Winner

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🗞️ Top Story

  • 🇫🇷 Viral Uprising. French officials warn that social media is fueling unrest by spreading calls for masked protests and violence, prompting talk of possible site blocks and new content crackdowns. (New York Times)
  • 🇩🇪 Youth Quake. Around 10,000 protesters, mostly from Gen Z, marched in Saxony demanding better education, social justice, and climate action, far exceeding expectations and forcing police to reroute crowds. (Die Zeit)
  • 🇪🇸 Poll Position. Far-right party Vox ramps up its attacks on Spain's government as new polls show it surging to nearly 18% ahead of snap elections. (Le Monde)
  • 🇧🇬 Majority Report. Neither Iliana Iotova nor Andrey Gyurov secured over 50% in Bulgaria’s first presidential round, forcing a runoff that highlights just how ceremonial the job is. (Boursier)
  • 🇺🇦 Appocalypse Now. Hackers compromised emergency alert apps in both Ukraine and Russia, sending out false warnings about radiation and chemical attacks to already anxious populations. (Die Zeit)
  • 🇺🇸 Visa Versa. Marco Rubio claims Flavio Bolsonaro's arrival in the was a matter of paperwork, not politics, denying any direct American involvement in the ex-senator's post-election exit. (Ouest-France)
  • 🇺🇸 Ground Control. A business jet plummeted into a Florida neighborhood, leaving 9 dead and hundreds of residents displaced as authorities secure the crash site. (New York Times)
  • 🇺🇸 Name Game. With two Dan Sullivans on Alaska's Senate ballot, a federal judge dismissed the Justice Department's attempt to halt certification over potential mix-ups, calling the request unworkable. (Die Zeit)
  • 🇺🇸 Money Talks. Elon Musk has poured at least $407M into backing Republicans for the midterms, making him the largest individual donor in American history. (Le Temps)
  • 🇮🇳 Poll Position. India’s opposition parties stage a massive rally Delhi demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar after 130M voters vanish from the rolls, accusing the government of rigging the game before it even starts. (BBC)
  • 🇳🇿 Beehive Mind. Qiulae Wong, who joined politics just last year after spotting a vacancy online, could become the kingmaker in New Zealand’s tight election race. (Financial Times)
  • 🇮🇷 Current Affairs. The International Maritime Organization warns that the Strait of Hormuz is still unsafe for shipping, with attacks and mines slashing vessel traffic and raising global fuel costs. (Bloomberg)
  • 🇾🇪 Hostage Crisis. A United Nations employee died after two years in Houthi detention in Yemen, with officials accusing the rebels of torture and holding over 70 more UN staff. (Spiegel)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
  • 🇬🇧 Vacancy at the Top. With Tommy Robinson found guilty and his heir apparent Danny Tommo also detained, the anti-migrant right finds itself suddenly leaderless. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇺🇸 Return to Sender. Donald Trump's lawsuit against Rupert Murdoch and The Wall Street Journal 🇺🇸 over an Epstein-linked letter story has been dismissed with prejudice, leaving Trump planning yet another appeal. (CNBC)
  • 🇺🇸 PAC to the Future. So-called "pop-up" super PACs have poured $637M into the 2026 midterms, with donor details often revealed only after voters have cast their ballots. (CNBC)

🏛️ Economy

  • 🇬🇧 Mind the Gap. The UK government hesitates on deepening EU ties, with Jonathan Reynolds insisting London needs to see the EU’s next moves before signing up for anything closer. (The Guardian)
  • 🇫🇷 Shell Game. The trial of Hélin International and Prince Henri de Croÿ opens in Paris, with prosecutors alleging a €200M tax fraud operation run for French clients. (Le Monde)
  • 🇷🇴 Traffic Jammed. Ukrainian grain floods Romania's roads and ports after Russian strikes on Black Sea routes, leaving trucks and trains stranded in growing bottlenecks. (Les Echos)
  • 🇨🇭 Friend$ With Benefits. FIFA boss Gianni Infantino’s cozy ties with Donald Trump include a $3.7M Trump Tower lease and a failed secret deal with Trump-linked investors, raising fresh questions about neutrality and self-dealing at the top of world football. (France Info)
  • 🇺🇸 Deficit of Attention. America’s federal debt reached the size of the entire economy, yet Washington’s response was a collective shrug and business as usual. (Wall Street Journal)
  • 🌍 Freeze Frame. OPEC+ nations opt to maintain current oil production quotas in December, choosing predictability over drama as regional conflicts persist. (Bloomberg)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
  • 🇬🇧 Fee Trade. The UK government offers to spend £450M a year so EU students can pay domestic tuition rates, but only if Brussels lets Britain into the Made in Europe scheme. (The Guardian)
  • 🇬🇧 Blowback. UK Chancellor John Healey threatens to veto new offshore wind projects unless they guarantee lower energy bills, raising doubts about the government's green ambitions. (The Guardian)
  • 🇬🇧 Benefit of the Doubt. The UK government refuses to commit to cutting its soaring welfare bill before the next election, leaving the ratchet firmly in place for now. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇺🇸 Sticker Shock. Health insurance premiums on the Obamacare exchanges will jump by double digits next year, leaving millions to reconsider coverage as costs outpace paychecks. (New York Times)

🏢 Real Estate

  • 🇵🇹 Flower Power. Housing protests in Portugal revive the spirit of the Carnation Revolution as thousands demand affordable homes and decry police crackdowns in Lisbon and Porto. (El Pais)
  • 🇦🇺 Home Alone. As the RBA prepares another rate hike, Australia’s housing market sinks further, leaving homeowners to weather the storm solo. (Wall Street Journal)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
  • 🇬🇧 Loan Rangers. The Bank of England is considering letting lenders issue more mortgages at up to five times a borrower's income, responding to pressure to boost home ownership and revive the market. (Financial Times)

🔗 On-chain

  • 🇪🇺 Eurovision. The ECB has chosen two tech consortia, led by Deutsche Telekom and Telefónica, to connect banks and payment providers to its digital euro platform, with contracts running up to 2029. (FinExtra)
  • 🇺🇸 Trading Places. After record-breaking hacks, Binance and Polymarket froze activity to investigate, leaving users with little more than a lesson in digital risk. (Wall Street Journal)
  • 🇺🇸 Super PAC-Man. crypto groups are pouring over $200M into the 2026 midterms, hoping to gobble up enough influence for friendlier digital asset rules in Congress. (CNBC)

💱 Listed Markets

  • 🇬🇧 Crude Awakening. BP 🇬🇧 posts an 18-year high profit of $8.46B as Middle East conflict sends oil refining margins soaring, prompting outrage from climate campaigners and consumers bracing for winter bills. (The Guardian)
  • 🇬🇧 Grand Opening. The original Grand Theft Auto launched 30 years ago from a small Scottish studio, spawning a global franchise built on irreverence, glitches, and carjacking mayhem. (Le Monde)
  • 🇺🇸 Profit and Losses. ExxonMobil 🇺🇸 posts a $15.4B quarterly net profit, beating forecasts and handing $9.4B to shareholders while energy prices keep wallets open. (Boursier)
  • 🇺🇸 Case Closed. Bayer 🇩🇪 notched a win in its first Roundup trial post-Supreme Court, sending its shares higher on the hope of fewer legal headaches. (Wall Street Journal)
  • 🇺🇸 Prime Suspect. Meta's Muse bot attracts millions of shoppers in record time, putting Amazon's status as the default online mall under new pressure. (Wall Street Journal)
  • 🇨🇳 Driven Abroad. BYD 🇨🇳 keeps its sales streak alive for a sixth month, thanks to exports doubling while Chinese buyers hit the brakes at home. (Bloomberg)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
  • 🇬🇧 Feed the Machine. The UK antitrust regulator is investigating Meta 🇺🇸 for pausing new terms that let it harvest publisher content for AI, raising fairness questions for media and advertisers. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇺🇸 Collateral Damage. Nvidia may backstop Nscale’s massive AI campus debt, stepping in as cosigner to keep the $44.6B Anthropic project from stalling out. (TechCrunch)

🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)

  • Digital Science 🇬🇧 acquires Jenni AI 🇺🇸, an AI-powered academic writing platform used by more than 8 million students and researchers.
  • Tesco 🇬🇧 has agreed to sell its Czech and Slovak businesses to Ahold Delhaize 🇳🇱 for £1.5B, with completion expected in H2 2027.
  • Veolia Environnement 🇫🇷 plans to sell its 50.1% stake in BS Energy 🇩🇪 to Braunschweig 🇩🇪 and Thüga 🇩🇪 for €300-400M, and proposes opening talks.
  • Evonik 🇩🇪 refuses to enter talks over BASF 🇩🇪's $12.5B takeover bid, offering only confidential discussions to explain its standalone strategy.
  • Christian Lindner Beteiligungsgesellschaft 🇩🇪 invests in cybersecurity startup QuoIntelligence 🇩🇪 following its €7.3M Series A round.
  • Beyond Frames 🇸🇪 has agreed to acquire AI platform Corvenia 🇸🇪 in a reverse takeover valued at nearly SEK 240M, subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.
  • Teqnion 🇸🇪 acquires British gravestone and memorial products company Odlings Group 🇬🇧, with £10M in average annual revenue over the past three years.
  • Michal Strnad 🇨🇿 proposes to acquire Delfin 🇱🇺, the family holding company controlling EssilorLuxottica 🇫🇷, for about €30B and a 62.5% controlling stake.
  • Visma 🇳🇴 increases its stake in pathway solutions 🇩🇪 from 33% to 78%, with a full acquisition planned for 2027.
  • Clayton, Dubilier & Rice 🇺🇸 is in talks with GTCR 🇺🇸 to acquire Global Payments 🇺🇸 in a potential $40B take-private deal.
  • Hologic 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire Reveal Genomics 🇪🇸, a precision oncology company developing genomic tests for breast cancer treatment.
  • The U.S. Federal Communications Commission 🇺🇸 approves Amazon 🇺🇸’s $11.5B acquisition of satellite telecommunications provider Globalstar 🇺🇸.
  • Thrive Holdings 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire U.S. security and smart-home solutions provider ADT 🇺🇸 for $7.6B in an all-cash deal.
  • Guidewire 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire AI insurance technology startup Hyperexponential 🇬🇧 for $1.7B, plus up to $400M in additional payments tied to revenue targets.
  • Intel 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire quantum computing software company Classiq 🇮🇱 for $2.2B, subject to regulatory approval, with completion expected in the first half of 2027.
  • DoorDash 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire Maplebear (Instacart) 🇺🇸 for approximately $17B, with 75% payable in cash and 25% in DoorDash shares.
  • The Lifetime Value Company 🇺🇸-led investor group has acquired Kipp 🇮🇱, a fintech platform connecting card issuers and merchants.
  • Greentech Alliance 🇨🇦🇩🇪 has agreed to acquire Intermobility 🇪🇺, a European transport and mobility network, creating a combined network of more than 5,000 members and partners.
🇺🇸 United States
  • Crosby 🇺🇸 has bid to acquire some assets of Weil, Gotshal & Manges 🇺🇸, including its trademark, brand and unspecified internal data, while seeking to hire some of its 1,200 lawyers.
  • Rainier Partners 🇺🇸 invests in Apex Insurance Services 🇺🇸, a Texas non-standard auto insurance MGA platform.
  • RedBird Capital Partners 🇺🇸 and Sound Ventures 🇺🇸 announce a $1B strategic partnership to invest in technology, media and culture companies.
  • Hongli Group 🇨🇳 is in talks to acquire a 20% stake in Xell Energy 🇺🇸.

🧳 Private Markets & VC

  • 🇨🇭 Net Profits. FIFA paid millions to cover President Infantino’s American taxes, quietly sidestepping its own transparency rules in the process. (New York Times)
  • 🇺🇸 Rate Expectations. Anthropic’s IPO dreams hit a snag as Wall Street frets over rising interest rates and hyperscalers’ AI splurges draining cash. (CNBC)
  • 🇺🇸 Barbarians with Bots. Thrive Holdings is snapping up ADT for $15B, betting AI can deliver what Apollo’s old-school playbook could not: actual outperformance. (Financial Times)
  • 🇰🇷 Chip Happens. Sam Altman made an unannounced trip to South Korea, meeting Samsung and SK Group leaders as OpenAI deepens its advanced chip alliances. (CNBC)
  • 🇰🇷 Strait Shooter. Sinokor has quietly become the dominant force in Persian Gulf oil shipping, handling nearly half of tanker transits as rivals steer clear of Iranian threats. (New York Times)

Fundraising

  • Hypersonica 🇩🇪 (Aerospace): €100M
  • Setara Biosciences 🇺🇸 (Biotech): $90M (Deerfield Management, Canaan, Droia Ventures, EcoR1, Euclidean Capital, Regeneron Ventures, Jazz Pharmaceuticals)
  • Finbee Verslui 🇱🇹 (Fintech): €55M (Pollen Street Capital)
  • Phase 🌐 (Blockchain): $45M (Kirill Eves)
  • Bites 🇮🇱 (AI): $40M (PeakSpan Capital, Vertex Ventures, Horizon Capital, Rittenhouse Ventures, Lyra Ventures)
  • BioBTX 🇳🇱 (Chemicals): €20.8M (European Union Innovation Fund)
  • Dream 🇺🇸 (Proptech): $17M (Andreessen Horowitz, SV Angel, XYZ, Zigg Capital)
  • hansetherm 🇩🇪 (Energy): €10M (G-FUND, Optima Aegidius Group, Leon Thomsen, Konstantin Lennertz)
  • Neuron Industries 🇺🇸 (Industrial automation): $10M (FCVC, Obvious Ventures, Y Combinator, Thin Line Capital, Zee Prime Capital, Founder Factor)
  • AvalonX 🇺🇸 (Cybersecurity): $10M (Ridown Capital)
  • i23 🇬🇧 (Insurtech): £4.9M (Four Cities Capital, Outward VC, Seedcamp, Insiders Ventures)
  • Crescenta 🇪🇸 (Fintech): €4M (BlackRock)
  • Ares Intelligence 🇬🇧 (AI): €2.6M (Creandum, Lakestar, angels connected to Google DeepMind)
  • Gamindo 🇮🇹 (Edtech): €1.4M (Club degli Investitori, Vento, Doorway, Zanichelli Venture, Luca Ferrari, Matteo Danieli, Francesco Patarnello, Luca Querella, Luca Maestri, Riccardo Zacconi, Claudio Erba, Alessio Artuffo, Duccio Vitali)
  • FitnessKPI 🇪🇸 (Fitness): €1.3M (Encomenda Capital, Angels Capital)
  • YK-Robotics 🇪🇸 (Robotics): €1M (Draper B1, First Drop, BStartup, Coben Ventures, Elephant Capital, PnP USA)
  • Sortrace 🇸🇪 (Waste management): SEK 8M (Almi, Antler)
  • Hausum 🇪🇸 (Proptech): More than €500,000 (DIROCA)
  • Noewe Accounting 🇱🇹 (Fintech): €500,000 (Philip Van Goethem)
  • OmniWallet 🇪🇸 (Marketing): €220,000
  • Prismus 🇨🇭 (Deeptech): €163K (Venture Kick)

Fund Watch

  • AP Ventures 🇬🇧: $300M (3rd industrial technology fund, closed)
  • Entourage 🇧🇪: €100M (2nd early-stage venture capital fund for AI, robotics and deeptech)
  • Aquiti 🇫🇷: €60M (AVA1 venture capital fund, closed)
  • BY Venture Partners 🇦🇪: $60M (Fund III, AI-focused venture capital fund, closed)
  • Eureka! Venture 🇮🇹: €35M (Z_One Fund, first close for AI and UrbanTech startups; €60M target)
  • Fidelity International 🇬🇧: (Global Innovators Fund, new global equities fund focused on innovation)

🧳 Debt

🇺🇸 United States
  • Settle 🇺🇸: secured up to $100M in forward-flow financing from 3Jane.
  • Mammoth Energy Services 🇺🇸: announced a $58M aviation term loan facility from Bank7.

❌ Failures

  • Pickit 🇸🇪: the digital asset management company filed for bankruptcy after raising SEK 187M and posting combined losses of over SEK 14M in 2024-2025.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
  • Virgin Media O2 🇬🇧: the telecoms firm is considering thousands of redundancies amid £27.2B in debt and intensifying competition.

🎯 For a Few More Minutes…

  • 🇬🇧 Portrait of a Lady. Pindy Kaur, beloved Barnsley chippy owner, joins royal company as Nicky Philipps paints her for a Coca-Cola community tribute. (BBC)
  • 🇮🇹 Pole Position. Kimi Antonelli becomes the youngest Formula 1 world champion ever, stunning the grid and earning praise from Hamilton and Verstappen in Mexico City. (BBC)
  • 🇳🇱 Ink Masters. Legendary tattooist Henk Schiffmacher brings Rembrandt’s drawings to life on museum-goers’ bodies, turning the Rembrandt House into the world’s most cultured tattoo studio. (New York Times)
  • 🇮🇸 Cold Storage. Amgen 🇺🇸 betting on an obesity drug that began life in a Reykjavík basement freezer, hoping Icelandic genetics can deliver the next Ozempic. (Bloomberg)
  • 🇲🇽 Dead Set. Mexico City's Día de los Muertos parade attracted 1.6M spectators, proving that when it comes to honoring the departed, nobody does it quite so vibrantly. (Spiegel)

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