๐งพ The Outrage Trade
You pay extra here, then cash out elsewhere.
Good morning!
From $2.78 a gallon in January to $4.52 in May, with diesel up half on the year. The Strait of Hormuz did its predictable work, and the political reflexes followed without delay. In Washington, senators dust off their grievance scripts; in Westminster, the Energy Profits Levy is wheeled out for another tour. Darren Woods at ExxonMobil announced the lowest quarterly profit in five years, a charming piece of accounting choreography involving $3.9B of derivative timing effects that will, conveniently, unwind in subsequent periods. The underlying number was $8.8B. Total shareholder return that quarter: 42%. The losses are reported, the gains are realised, and the press releases manage both with admirable composure.
The moral chorus is reliable. A senator from a coastal state demands a windfall tax. An editorial in the Guardian denounces the obscenity of Big Oil. A junior minister explains, with measured solemnity, that the public deserves better. The script proceeds untouched by a small inconvenience: roughly half the voters in the room own the offending companies already, through pension funds, 401(k) plans, index trackers, and the silent autopilot of dollar-cost averaging. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index holds ExxonMobil. The Norwegian sovereign fund holds Shell. The profiteer being denounced is, statistically, the speaker's own constituent, just badly informed about his own portfolio.
$2.4K in 2024 at the pump for the average American household. North of $3.2K this year, an involuntary tribute of $800 to $1.2K to the very operators being scolded from podiums. ExxonMobil pays $1.03 a share each quarter and has raised its dividend for forty-three consecutive years, a record longer than the careers of most of its critics. Around 250 shares cover the bill. The required capital, near $38K, is not modest, but it is roughly the price of the pickup truck quietly consuming the family budget at the pump. The hedge exists. It trades on a screen. It is legal in every jurisdiction that allows the complaint about it.
The trick collapses where the speeches never go. The lowest income quintile of American households spends 3.4% of its budget on fuel; the top quintile spends a far smaller share, and can hedge what little remains without breaking sweat. So the outraged interventions land in the right register and on the wrong subject. ExxonMobil's $8.8B quarter is the surface offence. The deeper one is that the households squeezed hardest by the bill are precisely those locked out of the dividend cheque on the other side. That arithmetic, even with all the sarcasm in the world, is hard to find amusing.
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๐๏ธ Top Story
- ๐ฌ๐ง Red Alert. Facing unrest after Labour's defeat, Keir Starmer vows to "prove them wrong" in a speech aimed at halting a growing internal revolt. (Libรฉ)
- ๐ฌ๐ท Drone Alone. Greek authorities are investigating a Ukrainian-made sea drone packed with 100 kg of explosives that washed up on Lefkada's coast after its operator lost control. (El Pais)
- ๐ช๐บ Mute Points. The public broadcasters of Spain, Ireland, and Slovenia are boycotting the Eurovision broadcast this year because Israel remains in the lineup. (Le Monde)
- ๐ท๐บ Old Boys' Club. Vladimir Putin floats ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schrรถder as a potential peace broker for Ukraine, hinting Zelensky must come to Moscow if he wants talks. (Die Zeit)
- ๐ท๐บ Truce Clues. The Kremlin explores possible ways out of the Ukraine war after Trump helps broker a temporary calm, giving Putin space to claim relief. (Le Temps)
- ๐บ๐ธ Critical Condition. Donald Trump says the Iran ceasefire is โon life supportโ and threatens new strikes, while Tehran shrugs off the pressure and demands concessions. (Spiegel)
- ๐บ๐ธ Ballroom Blitz. Democrats slam a Republican plan to spend $1B in public funds on Trump's dream White House ballroom, calling it a tone-deaf luxury as families face rising living costs. (Le Parisien)
- ๐ณ๐ฌ Lawless North. Armed gangs killed over 40 people in Zamfara and Katsina states, underlining Nigeriaโs persistent struggle to restore order in its northern regions. (Le Monde)
- ๐ Mission: Invisible. Paris and London announce a defensive maritime mission for Hormuz, but with Iran and America at odds, the actual launch date is anyoneโs guess. (France Info)
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Speechless. Keir Starmer's attempted reset fails to halt the Labour resignation drumbeat as even more MPs publicly urge him to step down. (The Guardian)
- ๐ฌ๐ง Quarantina Turner. Twenty-two MV Hondius cruise ship passengers exposed to hantavirus are now isolating in Merseyside flats after their evacuation from Tenerife. (The Guardian)
- ๐ฌ๐ง Second Opinion. UK regulator Ofcom reverses course and now probes GB News for broadcasting the Trump interview twice without challenging controversial statements. (The Guardian)
- ๐ฌ๐ง Cold Comfort. The UK is bracing for a midweek Arctic blast, with temperatures set to plunge below the May average and spring warmth on pause. (BBC)
๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐บ๐ธ Habeas Corpus Interruptus. The first capital trial at Guantรกnamo is delayed once more, with the Cole bombing case now on its eleventh start date and counting. (New York Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Checkmate, Inc. Representative Mike Lawler faces accusations of steering $720K in political funds to his own former consulting firm, fueling Democratic attacks as watchdogs demand a federal investigation. (New York Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Tank You, Next. Alabama's plan to install septic tanks for Black Belt residents is halted as Trump officials call the Biden-backed funding โillegal DEI,โ blocking relief for thousands. (New York Times)
๐๏ธ Economy
- ๐ฌ๐ง Red Lines, Blue Mood. Keir Starmer reaffirms Labourโs Brexit red lines despite pressure to rejoin the EU single market, offering friendship but not full return. (El Pais)
- ๐ฌ๐ง Exit Regret. Sadiq Khan urges Labour to pledge a return to the EU, arguing that Brexit was a costly mistake the party should be bold enough to reverse. (Cnbc)
- ๐ฌ๐ง Steel Yourself. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announces plans to nationalize British Steel, ending Chinese group Jingyeโs ownership after failed negotiations and mounting political pressure. (Le Figaro)
- ๐ช๐บ Animal Crossing. Brussels is set to let the UK keep its ban on live animal exports as part of a new agricultural deal, handing Keir Starmer a rare negotiating win. (The Guardian)
- ๐ช๐บ Block No More. With Hungaryโs new government stepping aside, the finally sanctions Israeli settlers over attacks on Palestinians, ending months of political gridlock in Brussels. (New York Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Power Trip. Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and 15 other CEOs will join Trump in Beijing, where trade tensions and tech rivalry are very much on the agenda. (BBC)
- ๐บ๐ธ Bar Watch. Trump says he wants to check Fort Knoxโs $700B gold stash with his own eyes, just to make sure the vault is not running on empty. (Le Figaro)
- ๐บ๐ธ Fill-Up Promise. Trump proposes suspending the gas tax to ease pain at the pump, but talks with Iran stall over irreconcilable demands on both sides. (Bloomberg)
- ๐บ๐ธ Gag Reflex. The SEC plans to scrap its long-standing "gag rule" after years of complaints from Elon Musk and Mark Cuban about muzzling criticism of settlements. (Bloomberg)
- ๐ฎ๐ณ Rupee Rescue. Indian officials are debating urgent measures to shield the country's foreign exchange reserves, signaling growing concern over currency stability. (Bloomberg)
- ๐ต๐ฐ Gas Crossing. For the first time since the US and Israel-Iran conflict began, a Qatari LNG tanker has made it through the Strait of Hormuz to Pakistan, offering brief relief to a power-starved country. (Le Monde)
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Gilt Trip. UK 10-year bond yields hit 5% as Keir Starmerโs big speech does nothing to calm investor nerves about politics or inflation. (The Guardian)
๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐บ๐ธ Care Bears. Healthcare and social-assistance jobs now drive Californiaโs job growth, outpacing tech and Hollywood, even if most pay less than youโd hope. (Wall Street Journal)
- ๐บ๐ธ Index Card. The Conference Board's labor gauge inched higher in April, giving the U.S. job market another reason to claim it's still open for business. (Wall Street Journal)
- ๐บ๐ธ Pump Fiction. California drivers already face $6 gas, but with the last Middle Eastern oil shipment docked, prices are set to climb even higher. (Wall Street Journal)
- ๐บ๐ธ Return to Sender. A federal court says the IRS may owe millions of Americans refunds for pandemic-era tax penalties, but filers must actively claim their cash by July 2026. (Cnbc)
๐ข Real Estate
- ๐ฆ๐ช Estate of Mind. Brookfield signals bullishness on Dubai real estate, insisting its insight into the region makes the market a smart play. (Bloomberg)
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Floating the Rules. Zack Polanski, Green Party leader, admits living on a houseboat without paying council tax and now promises to settle up. (BBC)
๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐บ๐ธ Spring Missed. existing-home sales in April barely rose 0.2%, missing forecasts yet again and confirming the housing marketโs persistent slump is not over. (Wall Street Journal)
- ๐บ๐ธ House Arrest. First-time home buyers like Lillian Rouse and Mark Debney are putting purchases on hold as rising costs and high mortgage rates make ownership feel out of reach. (New York Times)
๐ On-chain
- ๐บ๐ธ Arcade Funding. Circle pulled in $222M from heavyweights like BlackRock and a16z for its Arc blockchain token presale, valuing the project at $3B and putting institutional finance in play. (Cnbc)
๐ฑ Listed Markets
- ๐ช๐บ Crude Awakening. Shell ๐ฌ๐ง, BP, and TotalEnergies ๐ซ๐ท made up to $4.75B from oil market chaos sparked by the Iran war, thanks to their trading desks' appetite for volatility. (Financial Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Power Couple. The new alliance between Ford and CATL ๐จ๐ณ in battery development is presented as a potential template for thawing US-China relations, even as leaders keep their distance. (Bloomberg)
- ๐บ๐ธ Kitty Litter. GameStop shares soared and crashed within hours after Roaring Kitty posted online, proving meme magic still has a short half-life. (Bloomberg)
- ๐บ๐ธ Witness Protection. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella testified in the Musk v. Altman trial that Elon Musk never raised concerns about Microsoftโs $13B investment in OpenAI violating any agreements. The court drama now shifts to Sam Altmanโs turn on the stand.
- ๐ธ๐ฆ Barrel Roll. Saudi Aramco warns that a closed Strait of Hormuz could drain 100M barrels of oil from the global market every week, pipeline detours or not. (Wall Street Journal)
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Data Risky. MPs warn that NHS England has given Palantir ๐บ๐ธ โunlimited accessโ to identifiable patient data, calling the decision dangerous and fueling privacy fears. (The Guardian)
๐๏ธ Big Deals (M&A)
- Intertek ๐ฌ๐ง rejects a $12.1B takeover offer from EQT ๐ธ๐ช and plans to pursue a spinoff of its unit Intertek Energy & Infrastructure.
- Eon ๐ฉ๐ช acquires Ovo ๐ฌ๐ง, a UK household gas and electricity supplier, for approximately ยฃ550M to ยฃ600M.
- Armani ๐ฎ๐น plans to split a 15% stake among preferred buyers L'Oreal ๐ซ๐ท, EssilorLuxottica ๐ฎ๐น, and LVMH ๐ซ๐ท.
- Prosus ๐ณ๐ฑ sells part of its stake in Delivery Hero ๐ฉ๐ช for $395M.
- Architect Capital ๐บ๐ธ acquires a 16% stake in OnlyFans ๐ฌ๐ง at a $3.15B valuation.
- Apollo ๐บ๐ธ is in talks to sell its MidCap private credit BDC for $3B.
- Fortress Investment Group ๐บ๐ธ acquires a $125M stake in Rafi Law Services ๐บ๐ธ, a personal injury law firm in Arizona.
- Dream Finders Homes ๐บ๐ธ bids to acquire Beazer Homes ๐บ๐ธ for $704M.
- Byron Allen ๐บ๐ธ to acquire a majority stake in BuzzFeed ๐บ๐ธ for $120M.
- Bruin Capital ๐บ๐ธ acquires a 15% stake in Matchroom Holdings ๐ฌ๐ง, valuing the sports empire at over ยฃ1B.
- Trian Fund Management ๐บ๐ธ seeks investor backing for a bid to take Wendy's ๐บ๐ธ private, amid a significant decline in its share price.
- BMO Financial Group ๐จ๐ฆ to sell its transportation and vendor-finance businesses to Stonepeak ๐บ๐ธ for $10.6B.
- Hillhouse Investment ๐จ๐ณ acquires Mercer ๐บ๐ธ's Private Client Services.
- Sony Music Group ๐ฏ๐ต acquires Recognition Music Group ๐บ๐ธ's catalogue from Blackstone ๐บ๐ธ in an almost $4B deal for over 45,000 songs.
- Jardine Cycle & Carriage ๐ธ๐ฌ is considering selling its car dealership unit in Malaysia and Singapore for $250M-$350M.
- Dubai Ruler ๐ฆ๐ช acquires additional stakes in Emaar ๐ฆ๐ช for $6.5B.
๐งณ Private Markets & VC
- ๐ฌ๐ง Ad Libitum. TikTok ๐จ๐ณ is launching an ad-free subscription in the UK for ยฃ3.99 per month, letting users pay for the privilege of scrolling in peace. (TechCrunch)
- ๐ช๐บ Walter Watch. Walter Goodwin, a former VC and PhD, has Europeโs attention as rumors swirl about an Anthropic partnership and his next AI move. (Sifted)
- ๐ช๐บ SPAC to the Future. Investors are pouring billions into European quantum firms through SPACs and giant funding rounds, betting big on a breakthrough that is still theoretical. (Sifted)
- ๐บ๐ธ OpenSecrets. House Republicans launch an inquiry into Sam Altmanโs business ties as OpenAI moves toward its IPO, adding fresh drama to the AI gold rush. (Wall Street Journal)
- ๐บ๐ธ Board of Confusion. Satya Nadella testified that OpenAIโs board never gave him a clear reason for ousting Sam Altman, calling the entire episode โamateur city.โ (Financial Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Proud Cloud. Satya Nadella told a California court he is "very proud" Microsoft took the OpenAI bet when "no one else was ready" to invest. (Le Monde)
- ๐บ๐ธ Carry On Regardless. Private equity firms are attacking new research suggesting carried interest tax breaks cost billions in lost revenue, defending their favorite loophole with familiar arguments. (New York Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Suit Up. Hedge funds are snapping up stakes in litigation finance as asset values drop, turning distressed lawsuits into the latest alternative bet. (Bloomberg)
- ๐บ๐ธ Short Circuit. Andrew Left, famed short seller, will face a jury over accusations of market manipulation, proving even bears can be cornered in court. (Bloomberg)
๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐บ๐ธ Loan Wolf. JPMorgan and its partners tightened the leash on FS KKR Capital, cutting credit by 14% while KKR scrambled to throw in $300M to steady the sinking ship. (Cnbc)
Fundraising
- DeepSeek ๐บ๐ธ (AI): $7B (Hillhouse, Tencent)
- Isomorphic Labs ๐บ๐ธ (Biotech): $2B
- Helsing ๐ฉ๐ช (Defense Tech): $1.2B
- Nscale ๐ณ๐ด (AI Infrastructure): $790M (ABN AMRO, DNB, Eksfin, Nordea, SEB)
- Astranis ๐บ๐ธ (Telecommunications): $300M
- Digital Asset Holdings ๐บ๐ธ (Blockchain): $300M (a16z crypto)
- Cowboy Space Corporation ๐บ๐ธ (Aerospace): $275M
- Anagram Therapeutics ๐บ๐ธ (Biotech): $250M
- Blitzy ๐บ๐ธ (Fintech): $200M
- OpenText ๐จ๐ฆ (Data Management): $150M
- Reserv ๐บ๐ธ (Fintech): $125M
- Bovicash ๐ซ๐ท (Agritech): โฌ100M
- Tessera Labs ๐บ๐ธ (AI): $60M (a16z)
- Heaviside Industries ๐บ๐ธ (Defense): $28M (Interlagos, Menlo Ventures, Flume Ventures, Cantos, Anorak Ventures)
- Basata ๐บ๐ธ (Healthcare): $21M (Basis Set Ventures, Cowboy Ventures, PHX Ventures, Zenda Capital, Victoria Treyger)
- Ciridae ๐บ๐ธ (AI): $20M (Accel, Andreessen Horowitz, General Catalyst, Sunflower Capital, Backcountry Ventures)
- ReFiBuy ๐บ๐ธ (E-commerce): $13.6M
- Auguste & Ferdinand ๐ซ๐ท (Food & Beverage): โฌ1.6M
- TwoWay ๐ซ๐ท (Fintech): โฌ1.5M (welovefounders, Tenity, Plug and Play, SuperCapital, Unorthodox Partners)
Fund Watch
- University of Michigan ๐บ๐ธ: $2B
- S3 Capital ๐บ๐ธ: $1.3B (3rd fund, construction lending)
- Enhanced Games ๐บ๐ธ: $1.2B (merged with A Paradise Acquisition Corp., alternative to Olympics)
- Eric Trump ๐บ๐ธ: $1B (Dominari Holdings unit, investment vehicle targeting Trump-favored sectors)
- Corbin Capital ๐บ๐ธ: $342M
- Greenland Energy Company ๐จ๐ฆ: $215M (merger with Pelican Acquisition, oil driller)
- Global Millennial Capital ๐บ๐ธ: $100M
- Kalos Ventures ๐บ๐ธ: $78.8M (inaugural fund, early-stage tech companies in workforce, care, education)
- TriSpan ๐บ๐ธ: Not disclosed (single-asset continuation vehicle for Maman, cafรฉ-bakery brand)
๐IPO
- TCI ๐ฌ๐ง (Finance): has sold its entire $8B stake in Microsoft.
- Airtel Africa ๐ฌ๐ง (Telecom): delayed a London IPO for its mobile money business Airtel Money, aiming to raise $1.5B-$2B, now set for H2 due to the Iran war.
- Capita ๐ฌ๐ง (Outsourcing): Oasis Management acquires a 15% stake in the ยฃ500M company.
- KNDS ๐ซ๐ท๐ฉ๐ช (Defense): revised its IPO valuation downwards to ~$23B while targeting $5.8B in Europe.
- Pluxee ๐ซ๐ท (Finance): has completed a โฌ100M share buyback program, repurchasing 8.3M shares at an average price of โฌ11.98 each.
- Innio ๐ฆ๐น (Power Equipment): backed by Advent and ADIA, has filed for an IPO.
- Sunshine Silver ๐บ๐ธ (Mining): filed for an IPO to raise funds for reopening its Idaho mine.
- Cerebras Systems ๐บ๐ธ (AI): increasing IPO price to raise $5B amid over 20x demand, targeting a valuation above $30B.
- Lime ๐บ๐ธ (Transportation): filed for an IPO targeting a $2B valuation.
- Inspire Brands ๐บ๐ธ (Restaurants): filed confidentially for a $2B IPO.
- Odyssey Therapeutics ๐บ๐ธ (Biotech): raised $280M in an upsized IPO focused on the immune system.
- Applied Aerospace & Defense ๐บ๐ธ (Aerospace): filed for an IPO but no amount has been disclosed yet.
- Safepoint Holdings ๐บ๐ธ (Insurance): filed for an IPO as a Florida insurance specialist.
- Redwood Materials ๐บ๐ธ (Energy): raised $425M in a Series E funding round, pushing its valuation to over $6B.
- Cerebras ๐บ๐ธ (Semiconductors): seeking $4.8B in an upsized IPO.
- Lincoln International ๐บ๐ธ (Finance): seeking to raise $421M in a IPO.
- Barrick Gold ๐จ๐ฆ (Mining): pledging up to $3B in buybacks ahead of its IPO.
- Kunlunxin ๐จ๐ณ (Chips): planning a dual IPO in China and Hong Kong aiming for a $15B valuation.
- Go Inc. ๐ฏ๐ต (Ride-hailing): seeking to raise $575M at a $1.3B valuation in its Japan IPO.
- KK Mart ๐ฒ๐พ (Retail): planning an IPO that could value the company at approximately $750M.
- Vodafone ๐ฎ๐ณ (Telecoms): working on a proposal to bolster capital for its India-listed unit Vodafone Idea.
- Ninja ๐ธ๐ฆ (Delivery): selected banks for a $1B IPO in Saudi Arabia.
๐งณ Debt
- LACROIX ๐ซ๐ท: secured a โฌ77.6M syndicated loan to refinance existing debt and finance investments.
- Grรจce ๐ฌ๐ท: remboursera 6,9Bโฌ de sa dette europรฉenne le mois prochain.
- Broadcom ๐บ๐ธ: negotiating a $35B financing package with Apollo and Blackstone for AI chip development.
- Yahoo ๐บ๐ธ: raised $1.6B in a loan and bond sale to refinance debt from its $5B acquisition.
- Petroperu ๐ต๐ช: authorized a $2B new emergency loan.
- SoftBank ๐ฏ๐ต: downsized margin loan plans from $10B to $6B backed by its OpenAI stake.
- Goswami Infratech ๐ฎ๐ณ: seeking to raise $3B, including ~$1B dollar bonds.
- Piramal Finance ๐ฎ๐ณ: seeking to raise $1B FX loans.
- Pakistan ๐ต๐ฐ: looking to raise $260M in a debut panda bond sale.
โ Failures
- Deutsche Pfandbriefbank ๐ฉ๐ช: the lender is seeking to sell a non-performing loan on The CalEdison building in Los Angeles.
- General Motors ๐บ๐ธ: the company laid off hundreds of IT workers to hire new employees with stronger AI skills.
- General Motors ๐บ๐ธ: the automaker is laying off 500 to 600 IT workers as part of cost-cutting measures.
๐ฏ For a Few More Minutesโฆ
- ๐ซ๐ท Stable Genius. The French horse racing lab marks 50 years and $10.7M in annual funding, boasting 30,000 anti-doping tests and AI on the horizon to keep the odds honest. (Ouest-France)
- ๐ณ๐ฑ Family Portrait. A Nazi-looted painting from the Goudstikker collection has been found on the wall of SS general Hendrik Seyffardtโs descendants, after one ashamed heir hired a detective to reveal the truth. The family now faces public shame and demands for restitution. (Libรฉ)
- ๐ญ๐บ Dancing Minister. Zsolt Hegedลฑs, Hungary's incoming health minister, celebrated Pรฉter Magyar's swearing-in by dancing outside Parliament, stealing the spotlight yet again. (Spiegel)
- ๐บ๐ธ Cureiosity. A new study shows that a single infusion of engineered immune cells kept HIV undetectable in two patients for up to two years, hinting at a future where lifelong virus control might not require daily medication. (New York Times)
- ๐ญ๐ฐ Club Siu Mai. Lin Heung Lau, a legendary Hong Kong tea house, now hosts "dim sum raves" with DJs and cocktails to lure Gen Z partygoers back to the cityโs night life. (Boursier)
