๐ท๏ธ Price Tag Still On
Shelf life: seven years and counting, no buyers in sight.
Also available:๐ซ๐ท รdition franรงaise
Good morning!
There are now more private equity funds in the United States than McDonald’s branches. It is the statistic doing the rounds at every conference, delivered with the weary air of someone who has just discovered that water is wet. The difference being that McDonald’s still sells its burgers. The PE crowd cannot offload a thing. Some 32,000 portfolio companies, worth roughly $3.8tn, have been sitting on the shelf for an average of seven years, waiting for a buyer who shows no sign of turning up. Seven years. A leveraged buyout that takes longer to ripen than a child takes to reach school age.
The model had a tidy accounting elegance to it. Borrowing at 3%, buying a company on debt that did the heavy lifting, waiting for valuation multiples to swell on a tide of global liquidity, then flipping it five years later at twice the multiple, duly flagged in the roadshow deck. The ยซย operational value creationย ยป managers waxed lyrical about in their slides was, 80% of the time, a polite euphemism for financial engineering in a McKinsey suit. With debt now costing 8 to 9%, multiples flat and buyers thin on the ground, matching the old returns means growing EBITDA 10 to 12% a year. Bain calls this ยซย 12 is the new 5.ย ยป Mid-market managers have another name for it, muttered privately, and unfit for a family newsletter.
Consolidation is the obvious escape hatch. BlackRock hoovers up the stragglers, Apollo does likewise, and the underperformers vanish into the belly of a mega-platform. Except mega-platforms are not running a charity. They buy fee streams, not portfolios stuffed with assets they would struggle to price themselves. Plenty of funds have already raised their final vintage without knowing it. They will keep sending quarterly newsletters with cheerful charts, keep scheduling LP meetings where the word ยซย resilienceย ยป appears 40 times, and then, quietly, raise nothing further. No spectacular collapse, no lawsuit, no Financial Times splash. Just an email address that eventually stops replying.
Mediocre funds dying off is healthy. The damage was done earlier, when these funds spent a decade steering hundreds of billions in pension money and retirement savings into assets whose valuations rested on macro conditions that have since evaporated. Better still, an August 2025 executive order now nudges ordinary Americans’ 401(k) savings toward the same asset class, just as the people who understood the risks queue up to leave. The genuine losers will not be the managers, who pocketed their fees come what may. They will be the savers left holding the bag, while their former managers reinvent themselves in consulting, the TED circuit, or a vineyard in Provence.
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๐๏ธ Top Story
- ๐ฌ๐ง Manchester United. Andy Burnham, frontrunner for UK prime minister, promises a โradical changeโ with power shifted from Westminster to the regions and a โNumber 10 of the North.โ (El Pais)
- ๐ฉ๐ช Safe Haven. A shooting near a youth center for young mothers in Stade leaves five dead and multiple injured, with authorities insisting the public is no longer at risk. (Le Figaro)
- ๐ท๐บ Dock and Cover. Nearly $5.6M earmarked for Russia’s Caspian fleet base vanished into shell companies, with three executives now facing trial for creative construction accounting. (Le Parisien)
- ๐ฒ๐จ Safe Bet. A package bomb exploded in a Monaco apartment building, injuring three people and shaking the microstateโs reputation for absolute security overnight. (France Info)
- ๐บ๐ธ Ceasefire Chat. President Trump announced that the and Iran will hold new talks in Qatar on Tuesday after a weekend of military strikes left negotiations hanging by a thread. (Cnbc)
- ๐ต๐ฐ Strike Back. Pakistan claimed responsibility for deadly airstrikes in Afghanistan that killed over 30 civilians, escalating a border conflict fueled by mutual accusations of militant support. (New York Times)
- ๐ฒ๐ฑ Blame Game. Human Rights Watch accuses Malian forces, Russian Africa Corps, and jihadists of grave abuses against civilians since April’s intensified fighting, with all sides denying responsibility. (Le Monde)
- ๐ Last Bus Out. With a June 30 ultimatum looming, foreign workers scramble to exit South Africa, as xenophobic threats turn departure into a survival plan. (Le Monde)
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Betting Man. Former Tory MP Craig Williams, once Rishi Sunakโs parliamentary aide, has pleaded guilty to using insider knowledge to gamble on the 2024 election date. (The Guardian)
๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐บ๐ธ Drone Alone. A JetBlue flight from Las Vegas struck a drone while landing at JFK, prompting an FAA investigation and raising fresh questions about airport safety. (New York Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Family Values. Senator Ruben Gallego faces a Justice Department probe after billing campaign donors for luxury travel, Super Bowl tickets, and family getaways, all justified as fundraising essentials. (New York Times)
- ๐บ๐ธ Watchdogs to Lapdogs. The Supreme Court ruled presidents can now fire FTC commissioners at will, prompting Rebecca Slaughter to warn of unchecked executive power and rising corruption risk. (New York Times)
๐๏ธ Economy
- ๐ฎ๐น Exit Strategy. An heir to Leonardo Del Vecchio wants holding company Delfin to sell its stakes in major Italian banks, threatening to pull billions from Generali, Monte dei Paschi, and UniCredit. (Agefi)
- ๐ช๐ธ Bull Market. Spain lifts its economic outlook, projecting 2.6% GDP growth this year while much of Europe struggles to keep pace. (Boursier)
- ๐ช๐บ Fee the World. The will slap a โฌ3 customs charge on parcels under โฌ150, targeting cheap Chinese imports from platforms like Temu and Shein in the name of saving local shops. (The Guardian)
- ๐ช๐บ Loan Ranger. The European Central Bank reports that business lending in the eurozone jumped 4% year-on-year in May, outpacing Aprilโs 3.4% growth and signaling a credit-fueled recovery narrative. (Boursier)
- ๐บ๐ธ Gilt Trip. Gold slipped under $4,000 while US-Iran friction sent inflation jitters through markets: so much for precious metal peace of mind. (Bloomberg)
- ๐จ๐ณ Factory Setting. Chinaโs manufacturing PMI hit 50.3 in June, outpacing forecasts as surging tech exports powered growth while domestic demand stayed sluggish. (Cnbc)
- ๐ฏ๐ต Yen and Gone. The Japanese yen dropped to 162.27 per dollar, its weakest since 1986, putting Tokyo on high alert for possible currency intervention. (Cnbc)
- ๐ฐ๐ท Wonka Factory. South Korea unveils a $1T plan to build advanced chip plants and AI data centers, aiming to turn the Honam region into a tech wonderland. (Le Temps)
๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐บ๐ธ Youโre Hired. The Supreme Court ruled that President Trump can now dismiss most independent regulators at will, but the Federal Reserve remains off-limits for sudden firings. (New York Times)
๐ข Real Estate
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Rate Expectations. High mortgage rates have left 60% of UK homes listed since January unsold, as buyers balk and sellers cling to old price dreams. (Bbc)
๐บ๐ธ United States
- ๐บ๐ธ Old Money. Shankh Mitraโs Welltower ๐บ๐ธ snapped up senior housing during the pandemic slump, turning a $40B gamble into a $160B real estate empire. (Wall Street Journal)
๐ On-chain
- ๐ฌ๐ง Risky Business. The UKโs Financial Conduct Authority will force crypto firms to prove they can survive market shocks and hold real capital from October 2025, ending the industryโs free pass. (The Guardian)
- ๐บ๐ธ Hodl the Phone. MicroStrategy ๐บ๐ธ drops its ยซย never sell Bitcoinย ยป mantra and prepares to offload some crypto to survive the ongoing market freeze. (Wall Street Journal)
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Gift Wrapped. Christopher Harborne, the Thailand-based crypto investor who gave ยฃ5M to Nigel Farage and Reform UK, is unlikely to sidestep the new cap on overseas donations despite registering to vote in Hampshire. (The Guardian)
๐ฑ Listed Markets
- ๐ช๐บ Loan Star. Airbus ๐ช๐บ will receive a $3.42B loan from the European Investment Bank to boost tech sovereignty and compete with the US and China. (Wall Street Journal)
- ๐บ๐ธ Drone Alone. AeroVironment stock shot up 19% after crushing earnings estimates and reporting a $1.2B backlog, as global drone demand takes flight. (Cnbc)
- ๐บ๐ธ Blue Screen. Microsoft ๐บ๐ธ just wiped out $570B in value, setting up its worst month in over two decades and leaving investors rebooting their expectations. (Bloomberg)
- ๐บ๐ธ Shock Market. Donald Trump bought up to $5M in Axon stock just two weeks before ICE sought a $220M Taser deal that fits Axon’s specs, raising conflict-of-interest alarms even as the White House insists everything is above board. (Cnbc)
- ๐บ๐ธ AI of the Storm. Despite a $3.6B deal for Fin and a flurry of smaller buys, Salesforce ๐บ๐ธ cannot shake investor doubts about its AI future. (Cnbc)
- ๐จ๐ณ Stack to the Future. Baidu ๐จ๐ณ claims it has evolved into a full-stack AI powerhouse, with its CFO touting end-to-end control as the new industry standard. (Bloomberg)
- ๐ฎ๐ณ Jupiter Ascending. Mukesh Ambani unveils Project Jupiter, the secretive operation behind Reliance’s record-breaking IPO, aiming to launch Indiaโs biggest public offering yet. (Bloomberg)
๐ฌ๐ง United Kingdom
- ๐ฌ๐ง Listing in Action. The London Stock Exchange warns that up to 200 UK-listed companies could jump to the US, risking a ยฃ2B Treasury shortfall if the exodus accelerates. (FinExtra)
๐๏ธ Big Deals (M&A)
- BT ๐ฌ๐ง and Verizon ๐บ๐ธ form a 50/50 joint global business after Verizon pays BT a $625M equalisation fee. JV ~3,000 customers across ~180 countries and ~$4B combined annual revenue.
- Bridgepoint ๐ฌ๐ง acquires Kayne Anderson Real Estate ๐บ๐ธ for $1.393B, adding a real estate platform managing ~$22B of assets, with flagship fund KAREP VII at $5.12B and creating a merged platform managing about $117B. Al Rabil to continue leading the business under the Kayne Bridgepoint brand.
- Haleon ๐ฌ๐ง bids for L Catterton-backed supplements firm Thorne ๐บ๐ธ, which could fetch a $4B valuation.
- Trafalgar Entertainment ๐ฌ๐ง acquires London Theatre Company (Bridge Theatre and Lightroom) ๐ฌ๐ง, the 2017-founded company behind the Bridge theatre (900-seat flexible auditorium) and the Lightroom immersive-arts venue, adding to Trafalgarโs 20+ venue portfolio.
- Ipsen ๐ซ๐ท acquires Kartos Therapeutics ๐บ๐ธ for an initial $450M, plus up to $1.3B in milestone payments. Includes navtemadlin, a phase 3 hematology-oncology candidate.
- Airbus ๐ซ๐ท is in talks to acquire Grupo Masa ๐ช๐ธ for โฌ300M+, confirmed discussions with Airbus Atlantic. Transaction includes Himec Aero, NMT Aerospace Machining, Gepro Systems and Orisol Montajes Avanzados.
- La Doria ๐ฎ๐น acquires Solana Societร Agricola S.p.A. ๐ฎ๐น (indirectly including Suncan S.p.A. ๐ฎ๐น and Desco S.p.A. ๐ฎ๐น). Solana reported โฌ90M revenue in 2025, La Doria โฌ1.375B in 2025, deal subject to conditions including antitrust clearance, expected to close by Sept 2026.
- Coricelli ๐ฎ๐น acquires Deoleo ๐ช๐ธ (nonโbinding offer for specific Deoleo assets from the Italian group).
- CVC Capital Partners ๐ณ๐ฑ acquires Irca ๐ฎ๐น from Advent ๐บ๐ธ. Ingredients business whose revenue rose to โฌ1.5B ($1.71B) from โฌ370M in 2021.
- OV Grupa ๐ต๐ฑ przejmuje Studi ๐ต๐ฑ (zakup wiฤkszoลciowego pakietu akcji, wลaลciciel m.in. Kukbuk i ลadne Bebe).
- Flat Capital ๐ธ๐ช sells Harvey ๐บ๐ธ as part of a two-stake disposal totaling SEK180M; Harvey was valued at $11B in a March fundraise.
- EMMA Capital ๐จ๐ฟ acquires a 20% stake in Entain’s CEE business ๐ฌ๐ง for $485M, gambling sector.
- CVC ๐ฑ๐บ to buy Clevertech ๐ฎ๐น for โฌ800M, Italian manufacturer.
- Blue Owl ๐บ๐ธ is in advanced talks to buy a 5%โ10% stake in Cleveland Cavaliers ๐บ๐ธ via its Dyal HomeCourt Partners fund at a potential $5B valuation.
- Bumble ๐บ๐ธ explores a sale; $440Mโlisted dating app.
- Rocket Lab ๐บ๐ธ acquires Iridium Communications ๐บ๐ธ for about $8B. Shareholders to receive $27 cash plus Rocket Lab shares totaling $54 per Iridium share, space sector.
- Martin Marietta ๐บ๐ธ acquires Lhoist North America ๐บ๐ธ for $13.5B, financed with $7B cash and $6.5B stock. Expects $85M annual synergies and closing in H2 2026.
- Comcast ๐บ๐ธ spins off NBCUniversal ๐บ๐ธ and Sky ๐ฌ๐ง in a tax-free spinoff, creating a pure-play media company led by Mike Cavanagh. Michael Angelakis to run Comcast.
- Williams Cos. ๐บ๐ธ acquires Momentum Midstream ๐บ๐ธ from PE firm EnCap Flatrock Midstream ๐บ๐ธ for $5.5B.
- Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp. ๐บ๐ธ emerged as front-runner to acquire WildFire Energy ๐บ๐ธ for $4B+.
- Bain Capital ๐บ๐ธ and LY Corp. ๐ฏ๐ต poised to make a binding bid for Kakaku ๐ฏ๐ต, challenging EQT ๐ธ๐ช’s $3.7B tender offer.
- Stonepeak Partners ๐บ๐ธ acquires a group led by Morgan Stanley ๐บ๐ธ’s remainder of a lease of Chicago’s parking meters for $2.5B.
- QuidelOrtho ๐บ๐ธ sells point-of-care testing unit ๐บ๐ธ for $1.5B, with Advent, SK Capital Partners, and Archimed expressing interest.
- Repligen ๐บ๐ธ eyes takeover of Biolife Solutions ๐บ๐ธ, $1.5B-listed diagnostics suitor.
- TPG ๐บ๐ธ and Leonard Green ๐บ๐ธ explore a sale of Troon Golf ๐บ๐ธ, a Rory McIlroy-backed golf course operator.
- KKR ๐บ๐ธ acquires EDF Renewables North America ๐ซ๐ท, buying the North America renewables unit of state-owned EDF.
- Zymeworks ๐จ๐ฆ nears a $929M deal to acquire Theravance ๐บ๐ธ, a biopharma company.
- CSA Group ๐จ๐ฆ explores a $1.4B sale.
- China Three Gorges ๐จ๐ณ in talks to buy NEAG Norddeutsche Energie ๐ฉ๐ช’s wind portfolio for over $345M, including debt.
- JD.com ๐จ๐ณ acquires MediaMarktSaturn ๐ฉ๐ช after securing a majority of Ceconomy shares. German economics ministry approved the takeover under conditions and the European Commission is probing potential foreign subsidies and competition effects.
- DBS Group ๐ธ๐ฌ completes debut $1B SRT transaction.
- Navis Capital Partners ๐ฒ๐พ sells Dan-D Foods ๐ฒ๐พ in a planned $600M deal involving nuts and snacks.
๐งณ Private Markets & VC
- ๐ฎ๐น Merge and Surge. Milanโs P101 acquires PranaVentures, with founder Andrea Di Camillo predicting more VC-on-VC deals as consolidation fever hits the Italian venture scene. (Sifted)
- ๐ช๐บ Night Visionaries. Greek defense giant Theon is set to acquire French firm HGH, aiming to create a European leader in optronic technology with Paris’s blessing pending. (Les Echos)
- ๐ช๐บ Brexit Dividend. France moves to block the UK from joining the EUโs โฌ5B Scaleup fund, leaving British startups out of the late-stage investment party. (Sifted)
- ๐บ๐ธ Model Citizen. Base44, the ยซย vibe codingย ยป startup acquired by Wix ๐ฎ๐ฑ, has launched its own AI model to boost defensibility and cut costs as rivals rely on external tech. (TechCrunch)
- ๐บ๐ธ Liquid Asset. Omen AI just raised $31M to sell real-time fluid sensors for data centers, promising to catch bacterial outbreaks before they turn into million-dollar shutdowns. (TechCrunch)
- ๐จ๐ณ Unicorn Factory. China has produced two new robotics startups valued at over $1B each, showing investor appetite for automation is still running hot. (Bloomberg)
Fundraising
- Anyverse Dynamics ๐จ๐ณ (Robotics): $200M (fund affiliated with JD.com, C Capital, Hony Capital)
- Quantifind ๐บ๐ธ (Risk intelligence): $200M
- 8090 Labs ๐บ๐ธ (AI): $135M (Salesforce Ventures, WndrCo, Craft Ventures, The Production Board, Launch, Nikesh Arora, Adam D’Angelo)
- PollyGraph AI ๐บ๐ธ (AI): $100M
- Reed Semiconductor (Hardware): $100M
- Straiker ๐บ๐ธ (Cybersecurity): $64M (Marathon Management Partners, Citi Ventures, Illuminate Financial, Workday Ventures, Bain Capital Ventures, Lightspeed)
- Warp ๐บ๐ธ (HR): $60M
- Xellar Biosystems ๐บ๐ธ (Biotech): $50M
- Arca Wealth ๐บ๐ธ (Wealth management): $48.5M
- Runlayer ๐บ๐ธ (AI): $30M (Felicis, Khosla Ventures)
- Gaussion ๐ฌ๐ง (Energy): $28M (ยฃ21.2M)
- Attypics Photonics ๐ช๐ธ (Photonics): โฌ24.5M (SETT, Baladre Capital)
- OnyxOZ (Prediction market): $20M
- Z Squared Inc. ๐บ๐ธ (AI infrastructure): $15.3M
- Proception ๐บ๐ธ (Robotics): $11M (First Round Capital, Y Combinator, BoxGroup)
- Pocket ๐บ๐ธ (AI): $11M (Accel, Y Combinator, Mati Staniszewski)
- Aseon Labs ๐บ๐ธ (Mobility): $10M (Crane Venture Partners, Y Combinator, Expa, Robin Hood Ventures, Founders Capital, Adrian Aoun, Immad Akhund, Rajat Suri, operators and founding team members from Anthropic, Nuro, Turo, Revolut)
- FOSSA ๐ช๐ธ (Space): โฌ9.25M (Kibo Ventures, SETT, Space Frontiers Fund)
- Askari Defense ๐บ๐ธ (Defense): $9M
- Ladder Health (Pediatrics): $7M
- Wultra ๐จ๐ฟ (Digital identity): โฌ6.8M (Seventure Partners, Marc Norlain, Guillaume Despagne, J&T Ventures, Elevator Ventures)
- H2SITE ๐ช๐ธ (Hydrogen): โฌ6M (EIC Fund, private investor)
- NeuroBell ๐ฎ๐ช (Medtech): $5.5M (Elkstone, Parkview Health, Furthr, Atlantic Bridge, Medtech Syndicate, Enterprise Ireland)
- Kalipso ๐ช๐ธ (Regtech): โฌ2.82M
- Acodyne (Aerospace): โฌ2.5M
- Franklin ๐ฉ๐ฐ (Fintech): โฌ1.6M
- Serpier ๐ฉ๐ฐ (Martech): โฌ1.4M
- WAIIS ๐ช๐ธ (Mobility): โฌ1M
Fund Watch
- Columbus Circle Capital Corp. II ๐บ๐ธ: $1B
- BNP Paribas Asset Management Alts ๐ซ๐ท: โฌ960M (Agility 2, coโinvestment private equity fund) + โฌ300M (anchor subscription to Agility 2)
- VC Daybreak ๐บ๐ธ: $100M (2nd flagship pre-seed & seed fund plus follow-on/opportunistic fund)
- Osney Capital ๐ฌ๐ง: ยฃ60M (debut cybersecurity fund, seed/pre-seed UK)
๐IPO
- OHB ๐ฉ๐ช (Aerospace): backed by KKR, raised $900M in a share sale.
- Digi Spain ๐ช๐ธ (Telecommunications): launching an IPO with newly issued shares worth โฌ150M and a valuation pledge up to โฌ1.7B.
- Prosus ๐ณ๐ฑ (Investor): plans a $5B buyback and spent $8B on acquisitions last fiscal year.
- Hub International ๐จ๐ฆ (Insurance): confidentially filed for an IPO after a $29B valuation last year.
- Luxshare ๐จ๐ณ (Electronics): seeks up to $3.1B from a Hong Kong listing.
- Wanda ๐จ๐ณ (Conglomerate): ordered to pay $258M to Suning over a failed IPO.
- AirTrunk ๐ธ๐ฌ (Data centers): said to be near a confidential filing for what would be the biggest Singapore IPO in years.
- Mynt ๐ต๐ญ (Fintech): seeking to raise $1.5B in the Philippines’ biggest IPO ever.
๐งณ Debt
- Schneider Electric ๐ซ๐ท: issued โฌ1.5B of EMTN bonds in two tranches (Dec 2028 (Euribor+0.30%) and 7.4-year at 3.375%).
- SBM Offshore ๐ณ๐ฑ: signed $465M project financing for the FSO Chalchi.
- European Investment Bank ๐ช๐บ: issued the first DLT-native commercial paper on Clearstreamโs D7 platform.
- Shoulder Innovations ๐บ๐ธ: closed up to $50M credit facility ($15M term loan, $30M line, $ $5M accordion).
- Banorte ๐ฒ๐ฝ: raised $1.35B in an international hybrid debt sale.
- China ๐จ๐ณ: raised $5.7B in its biggest-ever euro-denominated bond sale.
- Japan ๐ฏ๐ต: sold two-year government bonds to strong demand amid BOJ caution. Amount undisclosed.
- BTC Digital Ltd. ๐ธ๐ฌ: raised ~$7M upfront in a private placement, with potential proceeds up to ~$28M including warrants.
- Indonesia ๐ฎ๐ฉ: drew $1.2B from bond sales.
- Ethiopia ๐ช๐น: agreed to restructure its defaulted $1bn international bond, cutting the face value to $880M.
โ Failures
- British American Tobacco ๐ฌ๐ง: plans to cut or outsource nearly a fifth of its 47,000-strong workforce, reducing about 5,500 jobs by year-end (plus ~3,500 already outsourced).
- Nationwide ๐ฌ๐ง: to cut 600 jobs in first redundancies after takeover of Virgin Money.
- Depot ๐ฉ๐ช: schlieรt 66 Filialen nach zweiter Insolvenz. Noch etwa 1.500 Beschรคftigte betroffen.
- Himolla ๐ฉ๐ช: filed for protective insolvency, putting about 850 German jobs at risk despite roughly โฌ190M in annual revenue.
- Giochi Preziosi ๐ฎ๐น: after updating a plan to close about 30 retail stores, 320 employees are in a state of agitation as many shops are already closed or closing.
- Hertz Global ๐บ๐ธ: announced a concurrent $100M stock issuance and $300M convertible PIK issuance.
- Fun Spot America (Atlanta) ๐บ๐ธ: the 36-year-old theme park will permanently close on Aug 2. Owners disclosed no financial details.
- Simad Holdings ๐บ๐ธ: won court approval to sell its camps and tap $60M in DIP financing to keep operating this summer.
- Dish DBS ๐บ๐ธ: preparing to file for Chapter 11 as EchoStar struggles with about $25B in debt.
- Quebecor ๐จ๐ฆ: urged regulators to hold a public hearing on lenders’ proposed takeover of Corus as it seeks to acquire the media company itself.
- BYJU’S ๐ฎ๐ณ: lenders to the bankrupt edtech are seeking a 30% stake as part of a settlement.
๐ฏ For a Few More Minutesโฆ
- ๐ซ๐ท Cuckoo Coup. French researchers are fascinated by the cuckoo’s genius for laying its eggs in other birds’ nests, making it nature’s ultimate impostor. (Le Monde)
- ๐ช๐บ League of Notions. In 1936, Ethiopiaโs Emperor Haile Selassie appealed to the League of Nations for help against Italyโs invasion, only to be met with silence from Europeโs so-called civilized powers. (Le Temps)