🪙 Pass the Bill
Someone always picks up the tab in the end.
Good morning!
The average effective tariff rate on American imports has gone from 2.3% to roughly 13% in under 12 months, a fivefold leap unseen since Harry Truman was still in the habit of firing generals. The Treasury collected $287B in customs duties, taxes and fees in 2025, up 192% on the year. Impressive, if the objective had been to build a domestic tax agency disguised as foreign policy. It was not. The objective was that other countries would pay. China, Vietnam, the EU, Mexico, Canada, all queuing up cheque in hand, desperate to keep their goods flowing into the great American consumer maw.
Economists at the New York Fed and Columbia ran the numbers through November and found 90% of the burden landed on American firms and consumers. The Kiel Institute, working from Germany and under no obligation to flatter the Oval Office, put it at 96%. A Harvard study cited in a recent presidential op-ed to prove the opposite turned out, on inspection, to find that American consumers absorbed 43% of the cost directly and American firms most of the rest. Its author clarified by email that it did not say what it had been claimed to say. A familiar Washington genre: economic research as Rorschach test, where a president sees vindication and everyone else sees the ink.
Large retailers softened the blow. They stockpiled ahead of deadlines, leaned on suppliers, and shifted sourcing to Vietnam and Mexico as China's share shrank. Walmart's CFO called the speed and scale of incoming price rises "somewhat unprecedented in history," the phrase finance executives reach for when they mean catastrophic but would rather the share price stayed put. Smaller firms had no such luxury. Thin margins, no leverage abroad, no diversified sourcing: for them the tariff schedule was a choice between raising prices and locking the door for good. The Tax Foundation puts the hit at roughly $1K per household in 2025, climbing to $1.5K in 2026, and it falls hardest on the bottom 20% of earners, who shoulder about three times the rate borne by the top quintile. A regressive tax dressed up in a flag.
Consumer confidence has sunk to its lowest in over 11 years. In February the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that the emergency powers invoked to impose the tariffs never reached trade policy at all, and struck them down as illegal. The administration reimposed a 10% version within hours under a different statute. The op-ed, naturally, called the whole thing "an American economic miracle." GDP did grow 4.4% in Q3 2025, genuinely strong, though it followed a contraction driven by the very import surge the tariffs were meant to prevent. Inflation held at 3%, helped by quiet exemptions for coffee, beef and kitchen cabinets once affordability turned into an electoral problem. The miracle, such as it is, has needed a remarkable amount of quiet concession to stay miraculous.
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🗞️ Top Story
- 🇬🇧 Mine the Gap. Britain is sending an advanced destroyer and a drone-equipped landing ship to clear Iran’s mines from the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to reopen oil shipping lanes and quiet US criticism. (New York Times)
- 🇫🇷 Access Denied. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot announced that Itamar Ben Gvir is now officially banned from France after publicizing footage of French Gaza flotilla activists detained with hands tied. (Ouest-France)
- 🇪🇸 Crowd Control. Tens of thousands marched in Madrid demanding Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez resign after fresh corruption scandals rocked Spain's Socialist government, with opposition leaders joining the protest. (Spiegel)
- 🇩🇰 Round Two. Mette Frederiksen is once again tasked with forming Denmark's next government after coalition talks collapsed for her rival Troels Lund Poulsen, making this a political déjà vu. (Spiegel)
- 🇪🇺 Current Affairs. Russia's shadow fleet is turning the Oresund Strait into a stage for hybrid warfare, leaving Sweden and Denmark to play catch-up with new surveillance powers. (El Pais)
- 🇪🇺 Union Jacked. Zelensky tells leaders that Germany’s associate membership idea would sideline Ukraine and embolden Russia, not integrate Kyiv. (El Pais)
- 🇺🇸 Strait Talk. Trump signals negotiators to slow down discussions with Iran, casting doubt on a near-term deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire. (BBC)
- 🇺🇸 Line of Fire. A man was killed by Secret Service after shooting at officers near the White House, with a bystander caught in the crossfire. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Évacuation de Strawberry Fields. En raison de la surchauffe de 7 000 gallons de produits chimiques toxiques chez GKN Aerospace 🇬🇧, Garden Grove annule son défilé et des dizaines de milliers de personnes fuient. Festival ou pas. (LA Times)
- 🇺🇸 Target Daughter. An alleged Iraqi operative linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guards plotted to kill Ivanka Trump to avenge Qasem Soleimani, say officials. He was arrested in Turkey with detailed plans and brought to the. (Le Figaro)
- 🇺🇸 Channel Surfers. The Trump administration says it is close to a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, promising sanctions relief and new nuclear negotiations if all goes to plan. (Financial Times)
- 🇻🇪 Ballot Pending. Maria Corina Machado announces she is ready to run for president, but Venezuela still waits for Trump’s promised elections to materialize. (Le Monde)
- 🇨🇳 Fleet Street. China has deployed over 100 warships and coast guard vessels near Taiwan, raising the regional stakes and making peace look distinctly crowded. (Le Monde)
- 🇵🇰 Off the Rails. A train carrying military personnel and relatives was hit by a car bomb in Quetta, leaving at least 24 dead and the Baluchistan Liberation Army boasting of its deadly reach.
- 🇱🇧 Collateral Figures. At least 45% of towns and cities in southern Lebanon have been damaged or destroyed by Israeli attacks, turning statistics into shattered neighborhoods. (Le Monde)
- 🇸🇳 Prime Cut. Senegal’s President Bassirou Diomaye Faye has fired Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and dissolved the government, ending their brief political alliance in dramatic fashion. (Boursier)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Royal Flush. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor finds himself under police scrutiny for alleged misconduct with a woman at Royal Ascot, two decades after the event. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Phishing for Doubt. Nigel Farage faces calls to prove his claim that Russian hackers exposed his secret £5M gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne, with critics demanding actual evidence. (The Guardian)
- 🇷🇺 Lost in Transmission. Russia is suspected of jamming the GPS on a British military jet as Defence Secretary John Healey returned from Estonia, making navigation a trust exercise. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Access Granted. Not content with network goodbyes, Stephen Colbert made his comeback on a Michigan public access channel, trading millions of viewers for dozens. (Cnbc)
- 🇺🇸 Deal or No Deal. Republican hardliners accuse Trump of conceding too much to Iran as he nears a deal offering sanctions relief for nuclear cooperation. (Financial Times)
- 🇺🇸 Lawful Awful. Trump pivots from chasing undocumented migrants to making life harder for those here legally, proving the rules can always be rewritten. (New York Times)
🏛️ Economy
- 🇬🇧 Goods Will Hunting. The UK quietly pitched a single market for goods with the EU, hoping for deeper trade ties, but Brussels was not impressed. (The Guardian)
- 🇫🇷 Quantum Leap. Emmanuel Macron pledges an extra €1B to boost France’s quantum sector, aiming to catch up with US tech dominance before his term ends. (Maddyness)
- 🇪🇺 Mergers in the Mist. Hopes for clear rules on corporate mergers fade as Commission infighting leaves companies and advisors lost in contradictory guidance. (Financial Times)
- 🇪🇺 Cheese the Moment. The and Mexico are set to sign a revamped trade deal that will scrap tariffs on goods like European cheese, sending a message to the US that Brussels can find new friends. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇪🇺 Rate Expectations. The ECB faces mounting pressure to raise interest rates as tensions with Iran push prices higher, according to Kocher’s comments. Inflation gets another excuse. (Bloomberg)
- 🇺🇸 Chair Force One. Kevin Warsh takes over as Fed chair while Trump pushes loudly for rate cuts, but markets expect the central bank to stand firm. (Cnbc)
- 🇨🇳 Snack Attack. Hao Xiang Lai, China’s budget snack chain, is expanding at breakneck speed with 2,000 cut-price treats, raising questions about how much snacking is too much. (Le Monde)
- 🌍 Shipped Intelligence. The artificial intelligence boom gave world trade a major lift at the start of the year, with global flows posting robust gains. (Wall Street Journal)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Not War Ready. UK ministers are told the country’s supply chains can’t handle a major conflict, with Trump’s “America First” stance worsening the risk. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Charge and Resist. UK Treasury officials dismissed a proposed VAT reduction on public EV charging, keeping the rate at 20% and sparking renewed debate on fair pricing. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Merge and Purge. The Financial Services and Markets bill lands in Parliament with plans to cut agency overlap and promise faster growth for firms. (FinExtra)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Fare Enough. With jet fuel spiking and Spirit Airlines out of the picture, travelers face record airfare and pricier road trips for summer vacation. (Cnbc)
- 🇺🇸 Do As I Say. Trump swore in Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, demanding independence while outlining his own preferred economic agenda for the new chief. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Spy Hard. The White House is giving intelligence agencies $9B to upgrade their AI capabilities, but chip shortages keep the tech on ice. (New York Times)
🏢 Real Estate
- 🇬🇧 Station to Station. Soaring rents push Londoners to inhabit empty police stations and offices as property guardians, turning urban leftovers into makeshift homes. (New York Times)
- 🇩🇪 Pump and Circumstance. In Germany, one in seven homebuyers now borrows at least the entire purchase price, pushing 100% financing back into fashion despite rising risks. (Die Zeit)
- 🇮🇹 Room With a Queue. As Venice votes for a new mayor, the real contest is between locals leaving and tourists arriving, with a €10 entry fee waiting at the door. (Le Temps)
- 🇸🇳 Bubble Trouble. The “green city” project at Lac Rose promises 10,000 modern homes, but locals fear the $1.3B plan will price them out of their own coastline. (Le Monde)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Capital Shrinkage. The premium for a London home over other UK cities has dropped to its lowest since the financial crisis, with Manchester and Liverpool closing in. (Financial Times)
- 🏴 Green Screen. Scotland's official "green datacentres" policy, set before the AI boom, risks overlooking the huge emissions tied to artificial intelligence, warns a local charity. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Mega Lease. AvalonBay and Equity Residential are merging in a $69B all-stock deal, creating a giant with over 180,000 apartments and an industry bracing for aftershocks. (Cnbc)
- 🇺🇸 Home Stretch. Denver and Honolulu are finally seeing homes become more affordable for average buyers, offering rare relief in a still punishing market. (Wall Street Journal)
🔗 On-chain
- 🇺🇸 Future Shock. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission scaled back enforcement and helped crypto and prediction markets thrive, conveniently aiding sectors linked to Trump’s family investments. (New York Times)
💱 Listed Markets
- 🇪🇺 Future Tense. Stellantis launches its "FaSTLAne 2030" strategy promising €60B in investments and 60 new models, but the market seems unconvinced so far. (Boursier)
- 🇺🇸 Appy Together. Google rolls out disco-ball icons for Pixel, asking users if they really want this much sparkle on their home screens, but not waiting for an answer. (TechCrunch)
- 🇺🇸 Group Therapy. Reddit shares fell almost 6% after Meta launched Forum, a new app for online discussion groups that directly targets Reddit's casual user base. (Cnbc)
- 🇮🇷 Crude Awakening. Oil prices dropped as talks of a possible Iran nuclear deal surfaced, leaving investors and analysts in a holding pattern for confirmation. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Mood Swing. stocks are hitting record highs, but consumer sentiment just hit a 70-year low, making Wall Street and Main Street total strangers. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Exit Strategy. Walmart's new CEO starts his tenure with a bang as Tom Ward and Cedric Clark, both top execs, announce their departures. (Wall Street Journal)
🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)
- CVC Capital Partners 🇬🇧 and Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 🇧🇪 team up for a $12.5B bid to take Recordati 🇮🇹 private.
- Groupe Atlantic 🇫🇷 finalizes a majority entry by Paloma Rheem Holdings 🇯🇵, creating a global HVAC leader.
- Equans 🇫🇷 sells its electric vehicle charging concession activities in the Netherlands to Infra & Mobility 🇧🇪.
- Centerbridge Partners 🇺🇸 is in talks to acquire a minority stake in Merritt Properties 🇺🇸, valuing the firm at $3B.
- AvalonBay Communities 🇺🇸 merges with Equity Residential 🇺🇸 in a $69B all-stock deal, including debt.
- Parker-Hannifin 🇺🇸 acquires Circor Aerospace 🇺🇸 from KKR 🇺🇸 for $2.55B.
- US 🇺🇸 takes $2B worth of equity stakes in various quantum computing firms including IBM 🇺🇸, GlobalFoundries 🇺🇸, D-Wave 🇨🇦, Atom Computing 🇺🇸, Infleqtion 🇺🇸, Rigetti 🇺🇸, Diraq 🇩🇪, PsiQuantum 🇺🇸, and Quantinuum 🇺🇸.
- Brunt Workwear 🇺🇸 is exploring a sale or strategic investment at a valuation exceeding $1B.
- Authentic Brands Group 🇺🇸 acquires Lee 🇺🇸 from Kontoor Brands 🇺🇸 for $1B.
- H.B. Fuller 🇺🇸 offers to acquire Advanced Medical Solutions Group 🇬🇧 for $805M cash at a 30% premium.
- Lone Star Funds 🇺🇸 explores a sale of IKB 🇩🇪 nearly two decades after acquiring the bank.
- Apollo Global Management 🇺🇸 proposes to acquire Bodycote 🇬🇧 for $2.04B, leading to a significant increase in share value.
- Nvidia 🇺🇸 invests in Alice & Bob 🇫🇷 through its venture capital arm, NVentures.
- SoFi 🇺🇸 acquires Peach 🇺🇸, a lending technology platform.
- US Group 🇺🇸 offering about €2B to acquire Napoli 🇮🇹.
- Uber Technologies 🇺🇸 weighs a higher bid for Delivery Hero 🇩🇪 after an €11.5B offer was rebuffed.
- Founders of Manus 🇨🇳 explore raising $1B to re-acquire the company from Meta 🇺🇸 after China blocked the $2B acquisition.
- Jardine 🇸🇬 acquires I-MED 🇦🇺 for $2.4B in the imaging sector.
🧳 Private Markets & VC
- 🇺🇸 Wave Ahead. John Doerr, the venture capitalist who backed Google, calls AI the biggest tech tsunami ever and claims its impact is still underhyped. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Fast Track. Everlane joins Shein 🇨🇳, trading its slow-fashion ideals for the express lane to massive scale. Conscious consumers are not amused. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Ground Control. Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket is cleared for liftoff after an April engine failure forced the FAA to ground flights for a month. The next twelve launches are back on the schedule, at least on paper. (TechCrunch)
- 🇺🇸 IPOcalypse Now. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing blockbuster IPOs that could set trillion-dollar valuations and test just how much AI hype Wall Street can actually absorb. (Financial Times)
Fundraising
- Hark 🇺🇸 (AI): $700M
- Modal 🇺🇸 (AI infrastructure): $355M (Redpoint Ventures, General Catalyst)
- Octane 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $350M
- Farther 🇺🇸 (Wealth Management): $150M
- MidOcean Energy 🇺🇸 (Energy): $120M
- Fresha 🇬🇧 (Marketplace): $80M
- Unframe 🇺🇸 (AI): $50M (Highland Europe, Bessemer Venture Partners, Craft Ventures, TLV Partners, Third Point Ventures, Cerca Partners, Vintage Investment Partners)
- Blink 🇺🇸 (Employee Experience): $17M
- The Path 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $14.3M
- Aboard 🇺🇸 (Travel): $13M
- Kin Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $9M (Maveron, Town Hall Ventures, Flex Capital, Eniac Ventures, The Family Fund, Pear VC, Watershed Ventures, Foundry Square Capital)
- Sparq 🇺🇸 (Gaming): $8.5M (a16z)
- Clouted 🇺🇸 (Marketing): $7M (Slow Ventures, Gold House Ventures, Weekend Fund, LINE-Yahoo's Z VC, Gondor Capital, Iterative, AppWorks, Peak XV's Surge, a16z Speedrun)
- Foundation 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $6.4M (Fulgur Ventures, Arche Capital)
- Benji 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $6.25M (Preface Ventures, Atinc, Great North Ventures, M25, Hyde Park Venture Partners)
- Vêtir 🇺🇸 (Fashion): $5.5M (Laidlaw & Company, strategic partners, luxury-adjacent family offices)
- K-Ren 🇫🇷 (Nautisme): €1.2M (Sud Mer Invest, business angels)
Fund Watch
- EQT 🇸🇪: €5B (Scaleup Europe Fund, Europe's largest tech fund)
- Bpifrance 🇫🇷: €2B
- Securitize 🇺🇸: $1.25B (merging with Cantor Equity Partners II, asset tokenization platform)
- Allianz Global Investors 🇩🇪: €1B (AGDIEF III, diversified infrastructure equity fund)
- Varde Partners 🇺🇸: $1B (Asia private credit fund, currently raising)
- Kuark Capital 🇺🇸: $400M (new equity L/S hedge fund, Asian tech stocks)
- Bridgewest Ventures 🇳🇿: NZ$60.2M (Venture Fund I, deep-tech investment)
🔔IPO
- KNDS 🇩🇪 (Defense): planning an IPO expected to raise between €1.5B and €2B for the French state.
- Oura 🇫🇮 (Wearables): has confidentially filed for an IPO in New York, previously valued at around $11B.
- SB Energy 🇺🇸 (Energy): planning to confidentially file for a IPO.
- Deep Fission 🇺🇸 (Nuclear): seeking $157M in a Nasdaq IPO at $24 to $26 per share, despite previous public listing challenges.
- Blockchain.com 🇺🇸 (Cryptomonnaies): a déposé en toute confidentialité une demande d'introduction en bourse aux États-Unis, alors que le marché des actifs numériques montre des signes de rebond.
- Aragen Life Sciences 🇮🇳 (Manufacturing): considering raising $300M an India IPO backed by Goldman Sachs and Quadria Capital.
- Mecom Gas 🇵🇰 (LPG): considering raising $20M in a Pakistan IPO.
- Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals 🇳🇬 (Refinery): attracted $2B of investor demand for a pre-IPO private share placement.
🧳 Debt
- Groupe Casino 🇫🇷: repaid €12.4M of secured debt from its subsidiary Quatrim.
- Russia 🇷🇺: announced its second yuan bond sale following Putin's meeting with Xi.
- SpaceX 🇺🇸: secured a $20B bridge loan to refinance $17.5B of high-interest junk debt.
- JPMorgan 🇺🇸: boosted its leveraged loan sale from $6B to $10.2B to refinance part of Warner Bros. Discovery's $15B bridge facility.
- Aquarian Holdings 🇺🇸: seeking additional backers for a $3B debt package to support its acquisition of Brighthouse Financial.
- Bird Construction 🇨🇦: looking to raise $180M in its first bond sale.
- Renault 🇯🇵: raised ¥159B (approximately €860.77M) through a dual-tranche samurai bond issuance.
- Bank SMBC Indonesia 🇮🇩: sold $1.1B in pension loans to BTN.
❌ Failures
- Finance Tower 🇧🇪: the Brussels skyscraper, owned by bankrupt JR Global, is valued at $950M amid legal disputes with PIMCO and Legal & General.
- Swiss Federal Railway 🇨🇭: the reorientation of its freight business affects nearly 200 employees, with changes in workplace or retraining offered.
- Geneva School of Manhattan 🇺🇸: the school will acquire the bankrupt Manhattan Country School's campus in a $20M stalking horse bid.
- Based Apparel 🇺🇸: the clothing brand's website was taken offline after reports of a malware infection, compromising visitor security.
- Raizen 🇧🇷: the sugar and ethanol joint venture is contemplating a debt restructuring plan amid objections from offshore bondholders.
🎯 For a Few More Minutes…
- 🇫🇷 Catnip Slip. A Japanese study finds that cats are less enthusiastic about catnip than the internet claims, preferring the local silver vine instead. (France Info)
- 🇸🇪 Artificial Unintelligence. Mona, the AI “manager” at a Stockholm café, blows the budget on useless supplies and sends late-night texts, making human management look wise. (Le Figaro)
- 🇺🇸 Meat the Makers. Leading AI executives now refer to humans as "meat computers," reducing everyone to biological hardware in their worldview. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Space Invader. During a Capitol Hill visit, NASA's Artemis II crew were heckled by a conspiracy theorist who insisted their Moon mission never happened while cameras rolled. (Le Parisien)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Wood You Believe. Helix Arts and George King Architects win the public vote to turn Sycamore Gap’s fallen tree into a “living archive” sculpture using its salvaged wood. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Booked Solid. South Carolina court clerk Becky Hill’s memoir on the Murdaugh murders brought her fame and, ironically, a wave of controversy questioning the trial’s outcome. (Wall Street Journal)
