⏳ Two More Years
Winners get a head start, losers a bigger stopwatch.
Madrid has become the closing argument of every wage debate in the rich world. Eight increases since 2018 have taken Spain’s minimum wage from €735.90 a month to €17,094 a year, up 66% and covering 2.5M workers. Pedro Sánchez presents each one as a refutation of everybody who forecast catastrophe. He has a case. Growth hit 3.2% in 2024, temporary contracts fell from 25% of the workforce to 16%, unemployment touched 10.5% and its lowest level since 2008, and the sky declined to fall. That disposes of the claim that raising the floor destroys the jobs standing on it. It does not establish that the floor did the lifting.
Spain’s foreign-born population rose by about 2M between 2022 and 2025, to 9.5M, and the country hired waiters, bricklayers and hotel staff by the hundred thousand. GDP per head sits 5.6 points above its 2019 level while output per person employed is slightly below it, and productivity per hour fell in the final quarter of 2025. More was produced by doing more rather than by doing it better. Madrid was also allotted €163B of NextGenerationEU money. And the cheap power under the Iberian miracle runs partly on Russian gas: Spain remains one of the EU’s biggest buyers of Russian LNG, taking 9,807 GWh in March 2026 alone, more than at the worst of the 2023 crisis. Wage-led growth, part-financed by a tanker from the Arctic.
The exhibit travels well. New York is weighing $30 an hour by 2030, up from $17, and the drafting gives the game away: employers above 500 staff must be there by 2030, everybody smaller gets two more years. Britain has lifted its statutory floor by over 75% in real terms since 2009, to £12.71 in April, and has yet to notice any Spanish miracle. In Paris, several hundred small employers laughed out loud at Jean-Luc Mélenchon, veteran of the French hard left, when he promised the laughter would curdle if the sharing did not start. The median net wage in a French firm under 10 employees is €1,865 a month against €2,689 above 5,000. The multinational ogre pays the same worker €824 a month more than the family business does.
Small employers are the constituency every version of this policy quietly exempts and loudly resents. Spain’s own coalition lost its 37.5-hour week 178 to 170 to allies protecting them. In the model country, the average advertised rent has reached €1,176 a month against an average young worker’s wage of €1,190, and three in four Spaniards aged 16 to 34 still live with their parents. Eight raises to the minimum wage, and the generation they were written for cannot afford the door key. The room in Paris laughed at the wrong sentence. So did the man delivering it.

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🗞️ Top Story
- 🇩🇪 Strictly Legal. Germany defends its arms shipments to Israel before the UN court, calling Nicaragua’s accusations of genocide complicity unfounded and its own export controls more rigorous than required. (Die Zeit)
- 🇩🇪 Majority Report. AfD’s landslide in Saxony-Anhalt leaves them just three seats shy of an outright majority, triggering panic and infighting within Germany’s ruling coalition. (El Pais)
- 🇪🇺 Minor Block. Emmanuel Macron urges the to adopt a law banning under-15s from social media, hoping European rules will succeed where France’s failed. (Le Figaro)
- 🇺🇦 Freeze Frame. Zelensky claims Moscow told Trump’s team it might negotiate on Ukraine, yet Russian missiles hit Kyiv again as soon as the Americans left. (France Info)
- 🇷🇸 Poll Position. Under intense street pressure, Serbia’s government proposes dissolving the National Assembly and holding early legislative elections this October instead of 2027. (Libé)
- 🇷🇺 Visa Vengeance. Moscow shuts Germany’s Saint Petersburg consulate, matching Berlin’s closure of the Russian consulate in Bonn as diplomatic tensions escalate. (Ouest-France)
- 🇺🇸 Name Drop. Donald Trump proposes renaming New Mexico as « New America » in a social media post, prompting swift rejection from Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham, who calls the idea a distraction from real issues. (Spiegel)
- 🇺🇸 Friendly Fire. Lawsuit evidence shows Omar al-Bayoumi, who always denied extremist ties, enjoying outings with al-Qaeda operatives, while the FBI and Saudi Arabia remain silent on the connection. (BBC)
- 🇧🇷 Family Business. Flavio Bolsonaro rallies thousands of supporters in Brazil, attacking the judiciary that jailed his father and vowing to challenge Lula in October’s presidential race. (Le Monde)
- 🇰🇵 Fleet Street. Kim Jong-un launches a new destroyer and declares North Korea’s navy will go nuclear, just as US, South Korea, and Japan hold joint drills nearby. (Die Zeit)
- 🇮🇷 Strait Talk. Iran announces it is close to finalizing a security deal with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices higher as markets brace for new risks. (Bloomberg)
- 🇬🇧 Party Line. Nigel Farage uses the Reform UK conference to reject comparisons to the AfD, promising a 100-day transformation plan for the UK instead. (Spiegel)
- 🇬🇧 Leaflet Encounter. As the Greens select their candidate for Keir Starmer’s old seat, Hamza Chowdhury publicly challenges Zack Polanski, warning voters against “parachuted politicians.” (The Guardian)
🏛️ Economy
- 🇬🇧 Sunny Side Up. The UK’s new finance chief John Healey paints a rosier picture of the economy in his debut speech, just weeks before a budget that could test that optimism. (Boursier)
- 🇺🇸 Yield Sign. SocGen strategist Alain Bokobza warns that if Treasury yields hit 5.5 percent, equities could break under the pressure, not just bend. (Bloomberg)
- 🇺🇸 Jet Set Go. Lockheed Martin 🇺🇸 confirms the F-35A’s unit price will rise to $92M in upcoming deliveries, keeping military budgets flying high. (Le Parisien)
- 🇺🇸 Future Shocked. OpenAI’s top scientist Jakub Pachocki posts a stark warning about runaway AI, asking for international coordination before the next leap leaves behind. (Le Parisien)
- 🇨🇦 North by Northwest. Canada imposes tariffs as high as 50% on US goods, with Mark Carney wagering that tough talk will strengthen Ottawa’s hand with Trump. (Bloomberg)
- 🇨🇳 Stimulus Shrug. Beijing unveiled a $54B recapitalization for major banks and insurers, yet the market barely blinked, sending their stocks lower anyway. (CNBC)
- 🇨🇳 Ship Happens. China’s exports surged 25% year-on-year in August, expanding its trade surplus and raising fresh eyebrows among its trading partners. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇯🇵 Yen and Now. The yen surged to a six-month high against the dollar as traders braced for possible intervention by Japanese authorities during thin US holiday trading. (Financial Times)
- 🇬🇧 Settling Up. The UK government plans to restrict trade with Israeli settlements in the West Bank, signaling a sharp policy reset and risking Israeli retaliation. (BBC)
- 🇬🇧 Spin and Spend. John Healey promises growth and jobs in his first speech as chancellor, but the real question is whether positivity can pay the tax bill. (BBC)
- 🇬🇧 Gilt Trip. The UK Debt Management Office may soon help the Bank of England swap its long-dated gilts for shorter ones, potentially easing market pressure and trimming the national debt by £35B. (Financial Times)
- 🇬🇧 Gridlocked In. Britain’s National Energy System Operator handed Palantir 🇺🇸 a £21M contract without competitive bidding, citing total dependence on its technology for critical grid functions. (Financial Times)
🏢 Real Estate
- 🇬🇧 Home Alone. Lloyds reports UK house prices fell for the first time since 2023, as higher mortgage rates and affordability issues keep buyers away. (The Guardian)
- 🇷🇺 Bridge Over Troubled Borders. Russia and North Korea have opened their first road bridge, a 1 km link over the Tumen River, cementing their growing strategic partnership with a literal crossing. (Boursier)
- 🇦🇺 Home and Loan. Bathla Group, an insolvent Australian property developer, scrapes together emergency funding to last a few weeks while $2.5B in creditor claims and halted construction leave thousands of homebuyers stranded. (Bloomberg)
💱 Listed Markets
- 🇫🇷 Birkin Blockers. Hermès 🇫🇷 wants to be known for luxury watches, but the Birkin bag’s cult status keeps overshadowing its horological ambitions. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇫🇷 Iron Lady. The Eiffel Tower will reopen after a staff walkout protesting orders that excluded female employees during a Hindu religious delegation’s visit. (France Info)
- 🇫🇷 Trial by Fumes. Stellantis 🇫🇷, the parent of Fiat Chrysler, will face a Paris court for aggravated deception in the ongoing Dieselgate saga. Apparently, clean air is still optional. (Ouest-France)
- 🇩🇪 Guilt Trip. Deutsche Bank 🇩🇪 resolves a high-stakes damages dispute with an ex-manager out of court, dodging a €152M claim linked to the Monte dei Paschi affair, while more lawsuits loom. (Die Zeit)
- 🇪🇺 Hybrid Theory. Audi CEO Gernot Döllner urges the to toughen tariffs on Chinese hybrid cars, warning current rules let subsidized rivals flood the market. (Le Monde)
- 🇺🇸 Made in USA or Bust. Trump tells Bombardier 🇨🇦 to build planes on American soil or lose access to the market, as $20B in Canadian tariffs loom. (CNBC)
- 🇨🇳 Mi Way or the Autobahn. Xiaomi 🇨🇳 announces plans to launch its high-tech electric cars in Germany by 2027, targeting the home turf of BMW 🇩🇪, Mercedes 🇩🇪, and Audi 🇩🇪 with a ready-made dealer network. (Les Echos)
🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)
- Shell 🇬🇧 acquires BP’s Conifer exploration 🇬🇧, taking a 30% stake in the Gulf of America project, and acquires BP’s Tupinamba exploration 🇬🇧, taking a 50% stake in the Brazil project.
- Lottomatica 🇮🇹 acquires Cirsa Enterprises 🇪🇸 for $3.2B in the gaming and sports betting sector.
- Lexroom 🇮🇹 completes its first two acquisitions four months after raising a $50M Series B.
- ExxonMobil 🇺🇸 takes over the operator role from TotalEnergies 🇫🇷, with TotalEnergies selling a 9.1% interest and retaining 20% post-transaction. ExxonMobil holds 34.1%, Santos 21.0% 🇦🇺, ENEOS Xplora 2.4% 🇯🇵, and Kumul Petroleum & MRDC 22.5% 🇵🇬.
- Proofpoint 🇺🇸, backed by Thoma Bravo, is in talks to acquire Varonis Systems 🇺🇸 for $4.7B.
- Carlyle 🇺🇸, Bain Capital 🇺🇸, Oaktree 🇺🇸 and Nextalia 🇮🇹 bid for a 10%-20% stake in Serie A 🇮🇹’s international media rights, implying a $4.6B valuation
- Bain Capital 🇺🇸 and Lone Star Funds 🇺🇸 consider second-round bids for NIKKON 🇯🇵, a $4.5B-listed logistics group.
- Vertiv Holdings 🇺🇸 acquires Utility Innovation Group 🇺🇸 in an up to $2.6B deal, targeting microgrid and advanced power controls.
- KKR 🇺🇸 acquires A1 Garage Door Service 🇺🇸 for $2B.
- Thoma Bravo 🇺🇸 explores a $2B sale of Foundation Software 🇺🇸, a construction software company.
- Oak Hill Capital 🇺🇸 acquires Guild Garage Group 🇬🇧 for over $800M earlier this year.
- Advent 🇺🇸 acquires a controlling stake in New Zealand Clinical Research 🇳🇿 from Waterman Capital 🇳🇿 for $715M valuation, clinical research sector.
- Curaleaf 🇺🇸 launches an unsolicited $272M hostile takeover bid for Aurora Cannabis 🇨🇦. Aurora urges shareholders to reject.
- Carlyle 🇺🇸 and Dynasty Equity 🇺🇸 invest minority stakes in Seattle Seahawks 🇺🇸, finalized with NFL approval to support the Khosla family’s acquisition.
- EverBank Financial 🇺🇸 to combine with WaFd 🇺🇸 in a reverse merger creating a $75B regional bank.
- La Caisse 🇨🇦 acquires a 24% stake in Altius Telecom Infrastructure Trust 🇮🇳 for $1.3B, Brookfield-backed Indian telecom tower operator.
- Korea National Oil Corp. 🇰🇷 merges with Korea Gas Corp. 🇰🇷, five units of Korea Electric Power Corp. 🇰🇷, and four regional port authorities 🇰🇷.
- PayTabs 🇸🇦 to acquire Amazon Payments MENA 🇺🇸 for $100M.
- Wren House 🇰🇼 is nearing a deal to buy 80% of GIC 🇸🇬’s stake in a European data center JV for $810M.
- Toscafund Asset Management 🇬🇧 acquires Spire Healthcare 🇬🇧 for £1.03B (250p a share), deal led by the hedge fund manager nicknamed « the Rottweiler ».
🧳 Private Markets & VC
- 🇬🇧 Policy Double Booking. Matt Clifford steps down from the UK’s science agency after MPs object to his simultaneous leadership role at Anthropic 🇺🇸, citing a clear conflict. (The Guardian)
- 🇫🇷 Swipe Right. Revolut 🇬🇧 and Visa 🇺🇸 test France’s first AI-driven payment, letting a bot complete a real purchase under human supervision and plenty of PR. (Maddyness)
- 🇩🇪 Rocket Science Fair. Isar Aerospace 🇩🇪 became the first German startup to reach orbit on its second test flight, claiming Europe’s launch sector is desperate for more capacity. (CNBC)
- 🇩🇪 Iron Dome, German Home. Volkswagen’s Osnabrück plant is set to become a security and defense center with Aurelius Capital and Rafael, trading convertibles for air defense systems and saving most jobs in the process. (Die Zeit)
- 🇪🇺 Posting Out Loud. OpenAI 🇺🇸-linked AI agents coordinated to spam 18,000 messages on DseWiki without permission, leaving the and UN to wonder who is really in control. (Libé)
- 🇺🇸 Bond Voyage. Bankers for Anthropic 🇺🇸 and OpenAI 🇺🇸 are pushing rating agencies to grant top-tier credit status right after their IPOs, aiming for a smoother entry into the $11.7T bond market. (Financial Times)
- 🇺🇸 Loss Leaders. Private equity firm BC Partners eyes LIV Golf not for the trophies but for its $5B in tax losses, which could offset future profits far beyond the fairway. (Financial Times)
- 🇨🇳 Rise of the Machines. China’s Shengying Technology 🇨🇳 rolls out the H-07, an AI-driven interceptor drone, hoping to catch up with Ukraine’s lead in drone warfare. (Le Parisien)
Fundraising
- Mistral 🇫🇷 (AI): €3B (Samsung Electronics, Scaleup Europe Fund, PSG Equity, Advent, BlackRock, Luxembourg, ASML, Nvidia, Andreessen Horowitz, Index Ventures)
- Medici Brands 🇺🇸 (Food): $250M (Greenoaks, Valor Equity Partners)
- Positive 🇫🇷 (Marketing software): €106M (CIC, Arkéa, Crédit Agricole, Caisse d’Épargne Hauts de France, Banque Populaire du Nord)
- Capacity 🇺🇸 (AI): $54M (Kathy Ireland)
- Aitan 🇮🇱 (Defense): $41M (Deep33, Dell Technologies Capital)
- Lasso Security (AI security): $30M (ClearSky)
- Aslan 🇺🇸 (Defense, Cybersecurity): $20.8M (Khosla Ventures, XYZ Venture Capital)
- Pearler 🇦🇺 (Fintech): $16M (Charlie Gearside, Partners Horizon Fund)
- Aranya 🇺🇸 (AI): $11M (First Round Capital, Asylum Ventures)
- Outline 🇫🇷 (AI): $3M (Founders Future, 100in, Newschool, Bruno Vaffier, Antoine Lizée, Raphaël Nahum)
Fund Watch
- British Business Bank 🇬🇧: £150M (northern England scaleup fund, investing £5M-15M in spinouts and startups)
🔔IPO
- Deutsche Telekom 🇩🇪 (Telecom): opposing a $200B merger with T-Mobile US after Elliott built a stake.
- Anthropic 🇺🇸 (AI): delaying its IPO by weeks and could be valued at about $2 trillion while lining up a $15B revolving credit.
- Barrick Mining 🇨🇦 (Gold): considering delaying an IPO for its North American gold business until next year.
- Azzas 2154 🇧🇷 (Apparel): will split into Arezzo&Co and a separate unit for Soma’s fashion brands. No raise disclosed.
- Wistron 🇹🇼 (Electronics): raising $1.47B through a global depositary receipt offering to fund raw material purchases.
- Asia OneHealthcare 🇲🇾 (Healthcare): TPG-backed firm confidentially filed for a $2.5B Malaysia IPO.
- Merdeka Battery Materials 🇮🇩 (Batteries): considering a Hong Kong share sale.
- Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE 🇳🇬 (Oil & Gas): seeks to raise $1.6B via 4.1B shares at 525 naira, valuing the company at $49B.
- Opay Digital Services 🇳🇬 (Fintech): SoftBank-backed firm is weighing a secondary listing in Nigeria after pursuing a US IPO.
- Continental Reinsurance 🇧🇼 (Reinsurance): plans to raise $155M in Botswana’s first IPO since 2017.
🧳 Debt
- Apax Partners 🇬🇧: lined up $1.2B in debt to back a $1.7B purchase.
- Waymo 🇺🇸: in advanced talks for a debut $3B debt raise with PIMCO, Blackstone, and Sixth Street Partners.
- Vingroup 🇻🇳: is in talks to raise $300M via a debut Korean-won bond sale.
❌ Failures
- Jaguar Land Rover 🇬🇧: to cut about 4,000 jobs over two years to save £1.7bn.
- Korea Coal Corp. 🇰🇷: the state-owned coal miner, having closed all its mines, will be liquidated.
🎯 For a Few More Minutes…
- 🇬🇧 Wonderwall of Sound. An archive of over 100 hours of Oasis recordings, including private Gallagher conversations, will be auctioned for up to £1.6M despite the band’s protests. (The Guardian)
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