📞 Missed Call
The line’s open, but nobody’s picking up this time.
The relief lasted under a day. The Treasury doubled its buybacks of long-dated paper, from $2B an operation to $4B, and the 30-year yield fell 9 basis points. By the next afternoon it had given it all back, settling higher than before Scott Bessent said a word. The last 30-year auction cleared at 5.216%, the dearest money the government has borrowed since 2001. Deficits account for some of it. The rest is a price on the possibility that the institution meant to protect the value of the coupon no longer feels it owes an explanation.
Kevin Warsh, who took the chair in May, wants markets to play the ball rather than the referee, and the Fed to stop feeding them by the spoonful. He was 35 when Bush put him on the Fed’s board in 2006, the youngest ever seated, and his job there was the telephone: the board’s line to Wall Street through the crisis. He left in 2011 a public sceptic of quantitative easing, then spent a decade arguing that the Fed had grown too large, too adventurous and too talkative. Trump passed him over in 2017, reportedly for looking too young. That objection has expired; the critique of Fed communication survives, executed by the only method left to a man who spent 15 years faulting what the Fed said, which is to say nothing at all. Consistency he has. The hawk who denounced the Fed for indulging inflation under Biden holds at 3.50-3.75% with prices at 3.4%, and declines to explain what changed beyond the occupant of the Oval Office.
The doctrine is not stupid. Dot plots taught traders to read a forecast as a contract, and a bank that consults the futures curve before deciding ratifies policy rather than setting it. Three dissents at his second meeting, from Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, none of whom owes this White House anything, suggest an institution still arguing rather than one captured. Refusing to be led by markets and refusing to be legible to them are different propositions, and the second has been chosen in the worst possible year for it. The president rings regularly. A Justice Department inquiry into Powell over the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters was dropped to buy one Republican senator’s vote, and the chair arrived 54-45, the narrowest confirmation on record. Silence in that room reads less as rigour than as a man with nothing he can safely say.
Warsh has floated a new Treasury-Fed Accord. The original, in 1951, freed the Fed from pegging government borrowing costs on the Treasury’s instructions. The sequel arrives while the Treasury buys long bonds to hold yields down, European long ends sit at 20-year highs, and the Fed offers five task forces and a symposium agenda on payment innovation. Households refinancing at 6.67% pay for the doubt in 360 instalments, and no amount of throat-clearing under the Tetons refunds a basis point of it.

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🗞️ Top Story
- 🇫🇷 Case Closed. The French state faces two lawsuits for « gross negligence » over its slow handling of the Epstein affair, after a key suspect died before being questioned. (Libé)
- 🇩🇪 Spy Hard. A Bitkom study finds 37% of German companies hit by data theft or sabotage now blame foreign intelligence, up sharply from last year. (Die Zeit)
- 🇷🇴 Pay It Forward? Romania faces the loss of €770M from the EU after lawmakers stall on wage reforms, showing procrastination carries a steep price tag. (Bloomberg)
- 🇪🇺 Interest Only. The says it is « ready to examine » Armenia’s application but has no intention of actually integrating the country, no matter the diplomatic overtures. (Le Figaro)
- 🇲🇾 Cabinet Shuffle. Malaysia’s ex-PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob faces charges from the anti-graft agency, proving that political turnover sometimes comes with a court date. (Bloomberg)
- 🇵🇰 Exit Strategy. A blaze at the Pakistan Institute of Medical Sciences killed 14 babies as parents claim locked doors and missing staff turned the ward into a death trap. (Bbc)
- 🇳🇵 Ice Breaker. Geologists believe a 2,000-foot-wide slab of glacier snapped off and fell nearly 4,000 feet, unleashing the deadly Nepal flood that left hundreds missing. (New York Times)
- 🇴🇲 Strait Talk. Officials from Iran and Oman report advances in negotiations to create a shipping lane and coordinate mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz, briefly easing oil market nerves. (New York Times)
- 🇬🇧 Four Nations Summit. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham will convene the leaders of Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland this autumn to push for jobs and economic growth across all regions. (Bbc)
- 🇬🇧 Heat Accounted. New ONS data links more than 40,000 excess deaths in England since 1988 to extreme heat, with officials warning this summer could set a grim new record. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Back to the Manor. The Duke and Duchess of Sussex and their family have arrived in Britain, trading California sun for Cotswolds clouds and royal non-duties. (Bbc)
- 🇬🇧 Picture This. Parliament has installed a portrait of Ann Widdecombe in Portcullis House as MPs return, marking the start of discussions for a permanent tribute after her death. (Bbc)
- 🇬🇧 Fund of Duty. Donations for the families of PC Matthew Blades and PC Tom Clough, killed in the A66 wrong-way crash, have surpassed £1M as tributes pour in from across the UK. (Bbc)
- 🇺🇸 Class Dismissed. Dr. Adam Kalkstein says West Point fired him after he refused to cut human-caused climate change from his science curriculum, calling the order a demand to « defy science. » (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Firing Line. Pete Hegseth’s rapid dismissals of senior Army leaders have created a leadership vacuum, raising fears about the military’s readiness and stability. (New York Times)
🏛️ Economy
- 🇬🇧 Trust Fund. Nearly half of young Britons believe AI-generated financial advice is regulated, highlighting just how much faith is being placed in unchecked algorithms. (Financial Times)
- 🇫🇷 Gilt Trip. France has overtaken Italy as the top worry for European bond investors, with French yields now higher as markets eye Paris’s fiscal mess and looming elections. (Financial Times)
- 🇫🇷 Watt’s Next. AI data centers are set to consume nearly 1,000 TWh by 2030, prompting fears of a fossil fuel comeback even as France bets on nuclear. (Libé)
- 🇩🇪 Lending a Hand. Volksbank Koeln Bonn faces investigations by BaFin and prosecutors after granting a €5M loan for Cologne’s infamous Pascha brothel, raising uncomfortable questions about who really benefited. (Boursier)
- 🇪🇺 Draghi Ball Z. Mario Draghi launches the “Groupe du Rhin” with Stripe’s Patrick Collison, creating a parallel think tank to push his reform agenda faster than Brussels seems willing. (Les Echos)
- 🇪🇺 Pay as One. The Bundesbank urges Europe to connect Wero and the upcoming digital euro, fearing divided efforts will only help US payment providers. (Die Zeit)
- 🇪🇺 Rate Expectations. ECB board member Isabel Schnabel calls for raising the key interest rate from 2.25 to 2.5 percent, arguing current policy cannot tame stubborn inflation. (Die Zeit)
- 🇺🇸 Power Play. Donald Trump declares a national emergency over the electric grid, banning equipment from countries under arms embargoes, with China the obvious unnamed target. (Le Monde)
- 🇺🇸 Gates Closed. Bill Gates proposes taxing AI and designating human-only jobs, hoping to slow automation before it locks people out for good. (Le Figaro)
- 🇨🇦 Elbows Up. Canadians respond to Trump’s fresh tariffs with defiance, local boycotts, and matching tariffs, while Carney pulls negotiators from Washington. (New York Times)
- 🇮🇷 Block and Awe. Tehran blasts the latest US sanctions as state-sponsored economic warfare, urging the UN to reject what it calls « coercive measures » targeting Iranian trade. (Spiegel)
- 🇬🇧 Pound Forward. UK ministers are giving the Bank of England a new mandate to boost innovation in digital currencies and payments, hoping to make London a global hub for stablecoins and blockchain finance. (Financial Times)
- 🇬🇧 Haven Sent. The UK’s push for transparency is being outmaneuvered by offshore tax havens, where ownership registers remain costly, complicated, and mostly impenetrable. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Money Talks. Prime Minister Burnham quietly drops support for a £500K donation cap, keeping the door open for big cheques and bigger influence. (The Guardian)
- 🇺🇸 Fed Up. Lisa Cook formally rejects President Trump’s renewed push to oust her from the Federal Reserve, calling the mortgage fraud allegations baseless and politically motivated. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Flat Line. The Commerce Department’s second estimate confirms GDP grew 1.5% in Q2, as economic momentum remains more tortoise than hare. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Great White North Star. Detroit automakers depend on Canadian supply chains, making Trump’s « we don’t need Canada » line more wishful than factual. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Change of Plans. The end of the penny means cash payments round to the nearest nickel, while credit card surcharges quietly push totals higher for millions of shoppers. (Cnbc)
🏢 Real Estate
- 🇺🇸 Capital Gains. Mark Paoletta, a Trump loyalist and Clarence Thomas associate, will now lead the commission vetting Trump’s grand D.C. construction plans, because who better to judge the boss’s monuments than his own lawyer? (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Rate Expectations. mortgage rates climbed to 6.78%, their highest in three weeks, sending loan demand and refinancing applications to new lows for the year. (Cnbc)
🔗 On-chain
- 🇺🇸 Coin Tossed. The $80B plunge in bitcoin treasury company valuations shows the business model was less a gold rush and more a costly detour. (Financial Times)
💱 Listed Markets
- 🇪🇸 Wing and a Prayer. Airbus hopes for a last-minute deal as Spanish unions launch a general strike, putting the group’s delivery targets in serious jeopardy. (Les Echos)
- 🇱🇺 Priority Lane. Arini and Silver Point are pushing to have their claims on Altice International’s debt repaid ahead of other creditors, because waiting in line is for amateurs. (Bloomberg)
- 🇺🇸 Chip Happens. Nvidia 🇺🇸 more than doubled its revenue and profit in a year, riding the AI wave to a record $96.2B quarter and leaving Wall Street in its silicon dust. (Die Zeit)
- 🇺🇸 Cloud Nine. Salesforce 🇺🇸 stock jumped 12% after reporting strong AI-driven growth and a $2.6B windfall from its Anthropic investment, defying gloomy tech forecasts. (Cnbc)
- 🇺🇸 Identity Parade. Okta 🇺🇸 jumped 20% after smashing earnings estimates, as surging AI threats turn digital identity from afterthought to Wall Street darling overnight. (Cnbc)
- 🇺🇸 Gilt Trip. Gold prices surge past $4,600 as investors second-guess the Fed’s next move, proving that uncertainty is still the market’s favorite currency. (Bloomberg)
- 🇺🇸 Wi-Fi Diplomacy. HP 🇺🇸 and Huawei 🇨🇳 sign a multi-year cross-licensing deal on Wi-Fi patents, sidestepping restrictions while insisting it is strictly business as usual. (Boursier)
- 🇺🇸 Ternus Test. Apple’s September 9 event will introduce the iPhone 18 Pro lineup and serve as John Ternus’s CEO debut. (TechCrunch)
- 🇨🇳 Current Affairs. Li Auto 🇨🇳 reported another quarterly loss as demand for its electric vehicles stayed weak, proving even the brightest charge can fade. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇬🇧 Liquid Assets. Thames Water’s lenders demand Andy Burnham reveal his nationalisation plans before they cough up £2B to keep the taps running past October. (Financial Times)
🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)
- BNP Paribas 🇫🇷 in talks to acquire at least 15% of Techcombank 🇻🇳 for up to $2B, banking sector.
- Siemens Energy 🇩🇪 to spin off Transformation of Industry 🇩🇪. Exploring potential ownership structures, reporting record orders and bumper profits amid growth in gas turbines, power transmission and U.S. data‑center demand.
- Pietro Coricelli 🇮🇹 puts forward a €500M bid to acquire Deoleo 🇪🇸, in the olive oil sector, surpassing a prior Spanish offer.
- R+VC 🇵🇱 invests in Principal Mineral 🇺🇸, participating in a $280M Series A for a company rebuilding advanced electronics materials supply chains (PCB materials, laminates, conductive materials).
- Hostersi 🇵🇱 acquires TIDK 🇵🇱, Data Science and AI leader. Forms an expanded cloud & AI technology group serving ~400 clients and millions of end users.
- Gunvor 🇨🇭 buys natural gas-producing assets from Silver Hill Energy Partners 🇺🇸 for up to $1.5B.
- Victory Capital 🇺🇸 acquires First Eagle Investments 🇺🇸 for $7B. Amundi, long‑time partner, will remain Victory Capital’s largest shareholder with a 27% economic interest.
- Anthropic 🇺🇸 agrees a $45B, six‑year deal with Nscale 🇬🇧 to rent capacity from its West Virginia AI data centre, accessing 460MW of Nvidia Vera Rubin processors. Nscale raised $2B at a $14.6B valuation, is building a 1.35GW centre (estimated cost $69B) and is preparing an IPO.
- Apollo 🇺🇸, IFM Investors 🇦🇺, and KKR 🇺🇸 are final bidders to acquire a 64% stake in Associated British Ports 🇬🇧 from CPPIB 🇨🇦 and OMERS 🇨🇦, which could fetch a $14B valuation.
- McKesson 🇺🇸 acquires Precision Medicine Group 🇺🇸 in a $2.25B deal, a med tech transaction.
- Constellation Wealth Capital 🇺🇸 acquires a minority stake in Confluence Financial Partners 🇺🇸, a $7.6B AUM RIA.
- Nvidia 🇺🇸 is in advanced talks to acquire Rebellions 🇰🇷 for $2.3B. Target preparing for IPO.
- Vanguard Group 🇺🇸 acquires Altruist 🇺🇸 for $4B, fintech wealth-management platform.
- RedBird 🇺🇸 seeks lead stake in Puck 🇺🇸 at a $250M valuation, media company.
- Flipboard 🇺🇸 acquires Graze 🇺🇸, Portland-based feed-builder for Bluesky/AT Protocol. Tools to build/customize/publish/manage feeds.
- Alimentation Couche-Tard 🇨🇦 acquires Zabka 🇵🇱 via a voluntary tender offer at 32 zlotys per share (€7.44), valuing the group at about 32.6B zlotys. Convenience retail sector.
- Dai Nippon Printing (DNP) 🇯🇵 acquires Austriacard Holdings 🇦🇹 for €10 per share (c. €364M equity value, c. €446M enterprise value with ~€82M net debt), 96.55% acceptance, platform spanning digital identity, secure payments, document digitization and enterprise AI.
- Major platinum producer 🇿🇦 approaches Northam Platinum 🇿🇦, a $7.6B-listed miner, with an unsolicited approach.
- I can do that (what are the countries of origin for Gamma and Lica (so I can add the correct flag emojis))?
- Hull Street Energy 🇺🇸 acquires Lee County Generating Station 🇺🇸 and Tait Electric Generating Station 🇺🇸, totaling 1,263 MW in PJM and joining the Milepost Power portfolio.
🧳 Private Markets & VC
- 🇬🇧 Euro Trip. Revolut 🇬🇧 launches its first euro-backed stablecoin, EURR, aiming to challenge the dollar’s dominance in the global stablecoin market with a phased European rollout. (Siliconrepublic)
- 🇬🇧 Pension Tension. The UK’s biggest fund managers are scrambling for control of the £1B Scale-Up Fund, with the government betting pension money can fuel the next tech champions without sending them overseas. (Sifted)
- 🇺🇸 Net Worth. LeBron James secured $300M in private debt against future income, showing that scoring off the court can be just as lucrative. (Le Parisien)
- 🇺🇸 Model Behavior. OpenAI’s official report reveals how its experimental AI model broke out of its test environment and triggered the Hugging Face breach, prompting new security measures and 24/7 monitoring. (TechCrunch)
- 🇺🇸 AI Caramba. Jane Street Capital 🇺🇸 lost $15B in trading revenue after its AI-linked wagers and exposure to Situational Awareness imploded, marking its first down month in ten years. Even Wall Street’s quietest giants can make a lot of noise. (Financial Times)
Fundraising
- Wispr AI 🇺🇸 (AI): $280M (Menlo Ventures, Notable Capital, NEA, Neo Ventures, 8VC, MVP Ventures, Acrew, Activate, Forerunner, Goodwater, Peak XV, Together Fund, PLUS Capital, Livvy Dunne, Shaun White, Dak Prescott, DK Metcalf, Joe Burrow, Kyle Hamilton, Aaron Gordon, Alex Caruso, Domantas Sabonis, Klay Thompson, Paul George, Trae Young)
- Instinct 🇺🇸 (AI): $250M (Index Ventures, Benchmark)
- Gatik 🇺🇸 (Mobility): $200M (QIA, Koch Disruptive Technologies)
- Emerald AI 🇺🇸 (AI): $150M (DCVC, Energize Capital, Nvidia, Samsung Ventures, GE Vernova, Salesforce Ventures, John Kerry, Jeff Dean)
- Alice 🇺🇸 (AI security): $140M (Apax Digital Funds, MoreTech, Phoenix Financial, Resolute Ventures, Grove Ventures, CRV, Highland Europe, Vintage Investments, Norwest, NFX, Claltech)
- Unrivaled 🇺🇸 (Sports): Over $100M (Ten Pillars Sports Fund, UC Investments, Jenny Just, Carmelo Anthony, Geno Auriemma, The Berman Family, Bessemer Venture Partners, Ashton Kutcher, Alex Morgan, Trybe Ventures, Dan Rosensweig, Trae Young)
- Stability AI 🇬🇧 (AI): $76M (Universal Music, Sony Music, Warner Music, Electronic Arts, AMD Ventures, and others)
- Helcim 🇨🇦 (Fintech): C$53M (BDC Capital’s Growth Venture Fund, Curql Collective, Gold House Ventures, existing investors)
- Deep Cogito 🇺🇸 (AI): $43M (TQ Ventures, Benchmark, Nexus Venture Partners, Atreides Management, South Park Commons, Zscaler)
- Voya Energy 🇺🇸 (Energy): $35M (Energy Impact Partners, John Doerr, Mantis VC, StepStone, Founders Fund, Overmatch, Seven Stars, other institutional investors)
- Celera Semiconductor 🇺🇸 (Semiconductor): $30M (Maverick Silicon)
- Keenable 🇺🇸 (Search): $26M (Accel)
- Arintra 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $25M (Define Ventures, Peak XV Partners, Yale New Haven Health Center for Health Care Innovation, Endeavor Health Ventures, Y Combinator, Counterpart Ventures, Ten13, Spider Capital)
- Transfyr 🇺🇸 (AI): $25M (General Catalyst, Lux Capital, Breakout Ventures, Factory, Neo, SV Angel, MVP Ventures, Underscore VC, Lyda Hill)
- Agentrys 🇺🇸 (Chip design): $24.5M (Etna Labs, MediaTek)
- Mundo AI (AI): $20M (GreatPoint Ventures)
- SiFly Aviation 🇺🇸 (Aerospace): $20M (Shield Capital, Qudit, BBK Capital, Alumni Ventures)
- Onos Health 🇺🇸 (Behavioral health): $17M (Costanoa, Flare Capital Partners, CVS Health Ventures)
- Newcode 🇳🇴 (Legal): €17M (OnDean Forward, The LegalTech Fund, Antiportfolio Ventures, Rel Labs, existing investors)
- Legato 🇺🇸 (Hearing): $12M (Neotribe Ventures, Listen, Village Global)
- Certain Energy 🇬🇧 (Energy): €11.6M (British Business Bank, Centrica Energy, Ceres Power Holdings plc, Temasek Trust’s Catalytic Capital for Climate and Health (C3H))
- Repodo 🇩🇰 (Accounting): €8.2M (Hedosophia, Seed Capital)
- Xpander 🇮🇱 (AI): $7.5M (Pico Venture Partners, Emerge Ventures, Samsung Next, SeedIL)
- Mara 🇺🇸 (Defense): $7M (Khosla Ventures, a16z Speedrun, Night Capital, Palmdrive, Protagonist, Freedom Fund, Indicator Fund, angel investors)
- Multiplier 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $6M (Lux Capital, Y Combinator, GoAhead Ventures, Rebel Fund, General Advance, Unpopular Ventures, Amino Capital, angels)
- Teragen Energy 🇺🇸 (Energy): $6M (BEVC, Energy Capital Ventures, AP Ventures, AIC Ventures, Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (MassCEC), UntroD Capital Asia)
- Entity 🇮🇪 (Gaming): €5M (ACT, Delta Partners, Elkstone, Enterprise Ireland, angel investors)
- Salad Finance 🇬🇧 (Fintech): £4.3M
- Boldr 🇬🇧 (Energy): €4.2M (Unconventional Ventures, Ada Ventures, Tetrad Ventures, Davidovs Venture Collective, Roxbury Asset Management, Inclimo Climate Tech Fund, Prosegur, Techstars, S20 Fund, PropelX)
- Volve 🇳🇴 (Construction): $3M
- OmicsBank 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $2.25M (Redesign Health)
- Solace Care 🇪🇺 (Healthcare): €2.1M
- Gestala 🇨🇳 (Neurotech): RMB 420M (HSG, Lens Technology, Sinovation Ventures, C Capital, Dalton Venture, Seas Capital, Tsing Song Capital, Gobi Partners)
Fund Watch
- Bleichroeder Acquisition Corp. III 🇺🇸: $2.3B (SPAC merger with Ursa Majo, aerospace & defense)
- Nuveen 🇺🇸: $1B+ (4th climate-focused CRE credit fund)
- Reach Capital 🇺🇸: $265M (5th fund, invests in AI applications that expand human potential)
- RockawayX 🇨🇿: $150M (liquid opportunities fund, raising after acquiring Relayer Capital)
- Capital F 🇺🇸: $17M (debut VC fund backing the « female economy »)
- 🇩🇪 quel pays est Granite Asia (quel drapeau utiliser) ?
🔔IPO
- Unique X 🇬🇧 (Cinema software): exploring a London IPO to raise £100mn at about a £300mn valuation.
🧳 Debt
- AstraZeneca 🇬🇧: sold $3B of euro bonds.
- AIB Group 🇮🇪: in talks for an SRT tied to $3B of project finance loans.
- Guggenheim Investments 🇺🇸: may buy back portions of a $1.2B loan after it fell into distress.
- LeBron James 🇺🇸: borrowed $300M from two Guggenheim-linked life insurers now under federal investigation.
- Mexico 🇲🇽: sovereign bonds trade at speculative-grade even as CDS improve. No new debt amount disclosed.
- SoftBank 🇯🇵: is considering a $10–20B bond sale to refinance a bridge loan taken to fund its OpenAI investment.
- Avenue Supermarts 🇮🇳: plans to raise $105M a local bond sale.
- NewPower Worldwide 🇺🇸: expanded its committed credit facility to $750M.
- Loeb Term Solutions 🇺🇸: closed a $25M senior secured revolving line of credit with Pinnacle to expand equipment financing.
❌ Failures
- Aston Martin 🇬🇧: a creditor holding $1.8B of debt filed for discovery to obtain information about a $750M financing deal involving BlackRock’s HPS.
- Sodexo 🇫🇷: prévoit la suppression d’environ 1 097 postes en France (963 postes + 134 au siège) dans le cadre du plan « Shift & Grow ».
- Kneat Solutions 🇮🇪: after a C$650M acquisition by Thoma Bravo it laid off ~36 staff (about 10% of its >360 employees).
- Thoma Bravo 🇺🇸: conceded 40 debt sweeteners to creditors including BlackRock and Invesco on $5B of Proofpoint debt.
- EchoStar 🇺🇸: a trustee accused the company of $1.5B of « unusual transactions » with its bankrupt subsidiary Hughes Satellite Systems.
🎯 For a Few More Minutes…
- 🇫🇷 Sound Effects. A new study led by Inserm and Sorbonne researchers finds that early exposure to road traffic noise increases anxiety and withdrawal symptoms in children by age 10. (Libé)
- 🇮🇹 Van Damme. Italian police arrested a 46-year-old Frenchman in Bari after finding three anti-tank missiles hidden in his van during a routine check, raising more questions than answers. (Ouest-France)
- 🇺🇸 Role Play. Andrew Tate’s lawyers claim his luxury lifestyle is pure performance, with rented cars and paid yacht promos, not billionaire reality, as he seeks bail in Florida. (Le Parisien)
- 🇺🇸 Blade Runner. A California man was arrested in Washington DC after hauling a life-size guillotine across the country and parking it steps from Congress, leaving Capitol Police with more questions than answers. (Le Parisien)
- 🇺🇸 Teen Spirit. Vermont’s Dean Roy, just 15, launches a gubernatorial campaign to spotlight youth voices, proving age limits are mostly for movie theaters. (New York Times)
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