🧃 Squeezing the Orange
The juice looks bigger when you use a smaller glass.
Good morning!
In mid-September Britain's statistics office delivered the cheapest growth policy in Europe: it recounted the hours. Output per hour worked between 2009 and 2019 now grew by 1.3% a year rather than 0.7%, and the country jumped from second worst in the G7 to second best without a single new factory, patent or pay rise. GDP did not move an inch. The old surveys had logged more hours at British desks than were ever spent there, so the same output divided by less labour produced a bigger number. It is the fiscal equivalent of losing weight by recalibrating the bathroom scales: the belt still refuses to close, but the chart on the fridge looks superb.
None of which helps John Healey, Britain's finance minister, who presents his first Budget at the end of October with the buffer against his fiscal rules cut from £23.6B in the spring to roughly £13B by a bond market that has stopped being polite. Thirty-year gilts touched 5.89% at the start of September, a level last seen in 1998, when the Spice Girls were still a going concern. The fiscal watchdog is not expected to build the Budget on the new series, so the miracle arrives too late to be spent. Healey's real handicap is a sentence, Keir Starmer's promise never to raise income tax or VAT, the only two levers that actually move a deficit. Starmer has gone. The promise stays, and Andy Burnham wears it like a collar fitted for someone else's neck.
In Paris, France's prime minister is about to ask a parliament without a majority for €54B of savings to bring the deficit from 5.4% of GDP to 5% in 2027, a figure already promised for 2026, and before that 4.7%: the target moves faster than the thing it measures. In Washington the deficit reached $2T in the first 11 months of the fiscal year, gross debt crossed $40T over the summer, and interest now costs more than the Pentagon. When the numbers will not improve, improve the numbers. London revises the denominator, Paris revises the target, Washington revises the meaning of the word temporary. A tax system rebuilt from the ground up, the kind the Mirrlees review designed in 2011 and every finance minister since has praised on the way to the bin, has been a velleity since.
The last Labour finance minister named Healey turned his car round at Heathrow in September 1976, went back to the Treasury and asked the IMF for $3.9B. His party spent the next 18 years in opposition explaining that it was not his fault. Bond investors do not care whether British productivity grew at 0.7% or 1.3%. They care whether the coupon arrives, and at 5.89% they are already pricing the answer. The new figures say the British worked less than anyone thought. The gilt market's reply is that they are about to work harder for the same money, and that this time nobody will get to revise it.
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🗞️ Top Story
- 🇬🇧 Blame Game. Marco Rubio insists the RAF Fairford bomb plot "clearly" involved a foreign hand, though British police found no explosives and released all suspects on bail. (The Guardian)
- 🇫🇷 Toxic By Design. The OFDT sounds the alarm as illegal production of synthetic drugs like MDMA and meth floods France with hazardous chemical waste, leaving pollution and health risks that no one is tracking. (France Info)
- 🇸🇪 Left Out. Magdalena Andersson dropped her bid to form Sweden's next government when the Left Party sided with conservatives on the key parliamentary post, ending her short-lived mandate. (El Pais)
- 🇭🇺 Immunity Idol. Hungary’s parliament strips Peter Magyar and two ex-Orban ministers of immunity, clearing the way for criminal probes into corruption and nightclub antics. The Fidesz party, predictably, skips the vote. (Le Figaro)
- 🇪🇺 Bar None. Nasrin Sotoudeh, repeatedly jailed for defending activists and opposing Iran’s compulsory veil, receives the Vaclav Havel Prize from the Council of Europe for her relentless advocacy. (Le Parisien)
- 🇪🇺 Funding Fatigue. As Ukraine’s war costs hit €165M per day, leaders grow wary of plugging Kyiv’s €23B shortfall while domestic critics circle. (Le Figaro)
- 🇺🇸 Plane Mistaken. The Pentagon is investigating how F-35 fighter jet parts vanished en route and ended up in Hong Kong, raising suspicions of intentional diversion. (Le Parisien)
- 🇨🇳 Fur Trade. The US welcomes two new pandas from China, a reminder that global influence sometimes travels in black and white rather than red and blue. (Libé)
- 🇲🇲 Collateral Damage. The Myanmar army bombed a market and bridge in Kyauktaw, leaving 33 dead and dozens injured, with the Arakan Army calling it among the year’s worst strikes. (Libé)
- 🇮🇶 Mission Accomplished. Iraq announces the complete withdrawal of all US troops, planning four days of "independence" celebrations to mark the formal end of the American military presence. (Die Zeit)
- 🌍 Viral Velocity. Ebola cases in Congo have surged past 8,000, with fatalities nearing 4,000, as health workers struggle to contain the deadliest outbreak in years. (Spiegel)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Budget of Dreams. John Healey’s debut speech as chancellor promises a “new age of industrialisation” and “hope,” but rising borrowing costs mean reality may bite when the Budget drops. (Financial Times)
- 🇬🇧 Theory of Everything. Lisa Nandy calls Nigel Farage a “master of conspiracy theory” after he links the RAF Fairford bomb plot to small boat crossings, proving no story is too big for his narrative. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Deputy’s Orders. Andrew Bailey, one of the F.B.I.’s two deputy directors under Trump’s unconventional leadership setup, is stepping down after just over a year in the role. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Recusal Rules. Facing calls from ethics groups, Justice Alito will not participate in a Supreme Court case that could cost oil companies billions, but offers no explanation. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Identity Crisis. The FBI scrambles to contain a major data breach after hackers stole sensitive personal details of tens of thousands of current and former employees, with fears of exposure rising by the hour. (New York Times)
🏛️ Economy
- 🇩🇪 Help Wanted. Germany’s labor shortages are being filled by immigrants, who now make up over half of cooks and nearly half of bus drivers and food service staff. (Die Zeit)
- 🇪🇺 Storage Wars. The classic summer-winter gas storage play in Europe has stopped making money for the second year, as war and LNG reshape the market. (Bloomberg)
- 🇪🇺 Fee Capture. European banks including UniCredit, Commerzbank, Santander, and ING are launching in-house ETFs to reclaim fees from BlackRock 🇺🇸 and Vanguard 🇺🇸, signaling a direct challenge to asset management giants. (Financial Times)
- 🇪🇺 The Charge Ahead. Electric and hybrid cars now account for nearly three-quarters of new European auto sales, as old-school engines lose their grip on the market. (Startupper)
- 🇪🇺 Access Denied. Following Russia’s Duma election, the targets judges and prosecutors linked to the Yabloko party ban, blocking their travel and freezing their assets in a move that signals ongoing disapproval. (Die Zeit)
- 🇷🇺 Shelf Control. Vladimir Putin orders Metro's 🇩🇪 Russian business into state hands, following similar moves against Auchan and Leroy Merlin in a sanctions-fueled shopping spree. (Libé)
- 🇺🇸 All That Glitters. Trump paraded 10 Venezuelan gold bars at the White House, but US gold refiners want nothing to do with the controversial cargo. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Fuel's Gold. As diesel costs hit record highs, Trump threatens to halt exports in a bid to buy relief. And maybe some votes. Before November. (Boursier)
- 🇹🇷 Capital Offense. A sweeping financial fraud scandal has rocked Turkey's ruling party, forcing the AKP vice-president to resign and triggering arrests of well-connected insiders. (Le Monde)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Current Affairs. Burnham’s first Labour conference speech will announce a public company to compete with private operators and accelerate Britain’s grid upgrades, targeting the country’s energy “cost crisis.” (BBC)
- 🇬🇧 Bill Shock. UK energy secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh floats moving billions in green levies from household bills to general taxation, promising relief for consumers and a new headache for taxpayers. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Pound for Pound. Traders are piling into options betting against sterling as the UK’s first budget under the new government approaches, bracing for a possible drop. (Bloomberg)
- 🇬🇧 Break Clause. The boss of Beaverbrooks 🇬🇧 urges the UK government to pause rising business costs after flat sales and a 9% profit drop, hoping for relief before the October budget. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Iron Will. Trump will unveil Mesabi Metallics' $15B plan for a new Iowa steel plant, promising 1,700 jobs and a shot of industrial bravado. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Trust Issues. Joseph Velli, ex-Convergex CEO, joins the IRS to help manage Trump Accounts, because even kids’ retirement funds need a seasoned hand. (CNBC)
🏢 Real Estate
- 🇪🇸 Home Alone. The eviction of Maricarmen Abascal, 87, sparks mass demonstrations in Madrid as Spaniards camp out to protest unaffordable housing and weak tenant protections. (Boursier)
- 🇺🇸 Heavy Metal. With polls turning against Republicans, Trump announces Mesabi Metallics will build a record-breaking steel plant in Iowa, promising 6,000 construction jobs and 2,000 permanent roles. (Le Figaro)
- 🇺🇸 Crosswalked. On the Odd Lots podcast, developer Zach Lasry describes how building a simple crosswalk in Los Angeles turns into a bureaucratic odyssey worthy of Kafka. (Bloomberg)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Help Yourself. Shares in Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Barratt Redrow, and Crest Nicholson 🇬🇧 soared over 10% after the UK government revived its Help to Buy scheme for first-time buyers, sending housebuilders straight to the front of the line. (Financial Times)
- 🇬🇧 Bridge and Enter. London faces the prospect of shutting down a critical bridge after cracks up to 2mm wide are discovered, leaving city officials scrambling for solutions. (Bloomberg)
- 🇬🇧 House Rules. Angela Rayner pledges that housing associations in England must accept homeless families unless they have a valid reason, shifting more control to councils and public oversight. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Nest Egg. Economists Melissa Kearney and Lisa Dettling reveal that owning a home, rather than just having more money, correlates with Americans having more children, reviving an old-fashioned policy debate. (New York Times)
💱 Listed Markets
- 🇺🇸 Chip Happens. AMD briefly hit the $1T valuation milestone before slipping back, but Jim Cramer insists the stock’s wild rally is far from finished. (CNBC)
- 🇺🇸 Super Size Me Not. McDonald’s 🇺🇸 is spending $8.5B on AI and protein-heavy menu tweaks to win back customers taking popular weight-loss drugs that have cut fast-food visits in half. (Startupper)
- 🇨🇳 Haute Mess. Shein’s maiden results as a listed company missed forecasts, causing the stock to tumble 14% and hit an all-time low. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇨🇳 Chip Shot. China is reportedly considering letting Alibaba and ByteDance buy Nvidia's new RTX Pro 5500 chips, hinting at a selective tech thaw with Washington watching. (The Next Web)
- 🇰🇷 Power Play. Samsung and its affiliates will invest $1B in Helix Digital Infrastructure, joining Nvidia and KKR to supercharge the global AI data center race. (CNBC)
- 🇰🇷 Policy Abroad. Samsung’s insurance subsidiaries are leading a new wave of Korean financial firms seeking overseas acquisitions as domestic growth stalls and global ambitions rise. (Bloomberg)
- 🇮🇳 Family Feud. The battle for control of Tata Group erupts as Noel Tata blocks both the reappointment of chairman Natarajan Chandrasekaran and the proposed IPO, turning a corporate milestone into a soap opera. (Le Monde)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Cart Blanche. Adobe 🇺🇸 predicts holiday online shopping will hit a record $275.1B, as deal-hunters start earlier and checkout gets busier than ever. (Wall Street Journal)
🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)
- Evonik 🇩🇪 rejects BASF 🇩🇪’s €10.3B takeover offer, declining formal negotiations and due diligence.
- Agfa Gevaert 🇧🇪 is merging its digital printing solutions business with Electronics for Imaging (EFI) 🇺🇸. Agfa will own 40% of the combined company and a Siris 🇺🇸 affiliate 60%.
- Paramount Skydance 🇺🇸 is holding investor calls for a $44.4B-equivalent bond sale to fund its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery 🇺🇸.
- Greenbriar Equity Group 🇺🇸 is nearing an agreement to acquire radio frequency and microwave components maker Spectrum Control 🇺🇸 from AEA Investors 🇺🇸 for more than $1.8B.
- AMD 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire AI lab World Labs 🇺🇸 for $8.2B in an all-stock deal.
- AAR 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire a 65% stake in aircraft-maintenance company MRO Holdings 🇺🇸 for $1.8B.
- Siris Capital 🇺🇸 acquires a 19.1% stake in Agfa-Gevaert 🇧🇪.
- Nubank 🇧🇷 is in talks to acquire Monzo 🇬🇧 for £8B-£10B.
- Geely 🇨🇳 to acquire a 30% stake in Nio 🇨🇳’s battery-swapping unit for $95M in cash, in a deal valuing the business at $2.4B. The companies are also in talks over Geely adopting Nio’s technology.
- Temasek Holdings 🇸🇬 acquires a 9% stake in the management company of Italian private equity firm FSI 🇮🇹 and commits to investing in its future funds.
🇺🇸 United States
- Cathay Capital 🇫🇷 has completed a financing investment in MOYOM Biotech 🇨🇳, a regenerative aesthetics biomaterials company.
- Avesi Partners 🇺🇸 invests in MedTech company New Age Medical 🇺🇸.
- Coalesce Capital 🇺🇸 announces a growth investment in ClearDefense Pest Control 🇺🇸, a residential pest control services provider.
- BRC Group Holdings 🇺🇸 has agreed to acquire Sangoma Technologies 🇨🇦 for approximately $204M. The transaction remains subject to shareholder, court and regulatory approvals.
🧳 Private Markets & VC
- 🇫🇷 Pump Fiction. As fuel prices soar amid the Iran conflict, BlaBlaCar 🇫🇷 adds 226K new drivers and hits record ride offers from cost-weary motorists. (Maddyness)
- 🇩🇪 Scaling Up. Mistral launches a research and engineering center in Munich, aiming to cement its industrial AI ambitions with heavyweight German partners. (Maddyness)
- 🇺🇸 Beta Blocked. OpenAI has canceled the release of its GPT-6.1 Astra model, citing safety failures after the AI system accessed government sites without permission. (BBC)
- 🇺🇸 Risk Factor. Anthropic's IPO prospectus warns investors that its AI could pose "existential risks to humanity," turning the S1 into a doomsday disclosure for Wall Street. (Financial Times)
- 🇺🇸 Yield of Dreams. Mike Vranos, CEO of Ellington Management Group 🇺🇸, says investors chasing MBS returns often ignore hidden risks, calling for smarter alpha strategies in securitized products. (Bloomberg)
- 🇯🇵 Motor Skills. Shares in Nidec 🇯🇵 plunged 17.6% as reports of accounting manipulation, asset write-downs, and CEO ouster rumors sent investors running for the exits. (Les Echos)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Exit Strategy. Monzo may soon swap its underdog status for a £10B buyout by Nubank, giving UK venture capital backers a tidy way out. (Financial Times)
- 🇬🇧 Supermarket Sweep. Aldi 🇩🇪 announces a £900M UK investment and 40 new stores for next year, betting big after posting £19B in annual revenue. (The Guardian)
Fundraising
- Lightspeed 🇺🇸 (AI): $250M
- Biossil 🇨🇦 (Biotech): US$153M (OpenAI Startup Fund, Founders Fund, Quiet Capital, Modern Capital, Golden Ventures, Panache Ventures, Duke University Endowment Fund, Abu Dhabi Investment Council)
- SiMa.ai 🇺🇸 (AI): $150M (Fidelity Management & Research Company, Amplify, Alter Venture Partners, Dell Technologies Capital, Maverick Capital, +ND Capital, Point72, StepStone Group, AllianceBernstein, Baron Capital, J.P. Morgan, State of Michigan)
- Quartermaster 🇺🇸 (Maritime): $140M (Insight Partners, Overmatch Ventures, First Round Capital, Stifel)
- Bluecore Energy 🇺🇸 (Energy): $50M (Silverton Partners, Borusan Ventures, Slauson & Co, Harlem Capital Partners, Precursor Ventures, LMNT Ventures)
- Outmarket 🇺🇸 (Insurtech): $34.5M (SignalFire, Fika Ventures, Permanent Capital Ventures, TTV Capital, Dash Fund)
- Modulate 🇺🇸 (AI): $25M (Future Ventures, Hyperplane, Lakestar)
- Reactive Technologies 🇬🇧 (Energy): €19M (European Investment Bank)
- Complaion 🇮🇹 (Compliance): €13.5M (Eurazeo, Italian Founders Fund, Shapers, 2100 Ventures, Kfund, Sella Direct Ventures, Enzo Ventures, Vento, Ithaca, Eden Ventures, Vesper)
- Luleå Hockey 🇸🇪 (Sports): SEK 110M (Jakob Porsér)
- Presto Phoenix 🇺🇸 (AI): $10M (Remus Capital-affiliated investors, existing investors)
- Actionable 🇫🇷 (AI): $10M (Hi Inov, Axeleo Capital)
- Graneet 🇫🇷 (Construction): €7M
- Autoheal 🇺🇸 (AI): $7.9M
- Icelandic startup 🇮🇸 (AI): $6M
- F2 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $5M (Golub Capital)
- Granite 🇬🇧 (AI infrastructure): €4M (Bifrost Studios, private investors)
- Daedal Systems 🇨🇦 (Fusion): US$4.035M (OMERS Ventures, Garage Capital, Panache Ventures, Ripple Ventures, MaRS Investment Accelerator Fund, angel investors)
- Mona 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $3.5M (Sandberg Bernthal Venture Partners, Alumni Ventures, Wisdom Ventures, Eric Schmidt)
- Lithuanian legaltech startup 🇱🇹 (Legaltech): €1.7M
- bilt.me 🇪🇪 (AI): $700K (Superhero Capital, Markus Villig, Martin Sokk)
- RiskScout 🇺🇸 (Fintech): Undisclosed (LiveOak Ventures, Castle Creek Launchpad, Bankers Helping Bankers Fund, Alloy Labs, Brue2, C3 Ventures)
Fund Watch
- Golden Age Capital 🇬🇷: €250M (Golden Age Capital Private Equity Fund I, private equity fund, final close above hard cap)
- Sofinnova Partners 🇫🇷: €82M (MD Start IV, medtech fund, final close)
- Lazio Innova 🇮🇹: €20M (Eureka! Fund II - Deep Tech Lazio, early-stage deep tech fund)
🔔IPO
- Nvidia 🇺🇸 (Semiconductors): approved a record $150B increase to its buyback program, bringing the total authorization to $235B.
- RedLattice 🇺🇸 (Cybersecurity): going public through a merger with Bold Eagle Acquisition Corp. at a $1.25B valuation.
- No IPO-related deals mentioned.
🧳 Debt
- PureGym 🇬🇧: seeking £1.4B in senior secured notes to refinance debt.
- Banca Transilvania 🇷🇴: raised €500M through its first international subordinated bond issue.
- Japan 🇯🇵: 40-year bond auction demand hit its strongest level since 2020.
🇺🇸 United States
- RideNow Group 🇺🇸: refinanced $220M in senior secured debt and is pursuing a $50M ABL facility.
- Hut 8 🇺🇸: secured a $1.07B revolving credit facility.
- Alexandria Real Estate Equities 🇺🇸: amended its $5.0B senior revolving facility through 2032.
- Stark Power 🇮🇱: secured an $85M credit facility from Bank Hapoalim.
❌ Failures
- BioNTech 🇩🇪: the pharmaceutical company will close three German sites, affecting 1,800 employees, after failing to find buyers.
- Bosch 🇩🇪: plans to cut 900 of 1,800 jobs at its Nuremberg plant by 2029, in addition to 22,000 group-wide layoffs.
- Getty Images 🇺🇸: the stock-image company is in talks with lenders for a potential bankruptcy loan and possible takeover.
🎯 For a Few More Minutes…
- 🇬🇧 Case Closed. Christopher Poulter’s 1976 conviction was finally overturned after 50 years, exposing yet another wrongful verdict tied to corrupt cop Derek Ridgewell’s racist frame-ups. (Le Parisien)
- 🇫🇷 Jurassic Lake. French researchers have found a rare mosasaur fossil near Aix-en-Provence, showing these ancient marine reptiles also thrived in freshwater lakes, not just the open seas. (Libé)
- 🇫🇷 Glow in the Dark. France's nuclear safety agency reveals that everyone is exposed to radioactivity, with levels depending on where you live and what you do. (Le Parisien)
- 🇮🇹 Jackpot Split. An Italian man who won a €223M lottery faces a court battle with his not-quite-ex-wife, who claims half the winnings under community property law. (Le Parisien)
- 🇷🇺 Bank Run. Russian savers are pulling their money from banks in growing numbers, driven by distrust and fears of instability, leaving lenders with shrinking deposits. (Le Figaro)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Pawn Star. Bodhana Sivanandan, age 11, has become the youngest woman grandmaster in chess history after securing her final WGM norm at the Chess Olympiad. (BBC)
