🍋 Squeezed for Rent
Someone’s always holding the squeezer, and it’s never you.
Good morning!
L'euro est né d'une idée sérieuse et belle : des pays qui s'étaient fait la guerre 3x en 75 ans adoptent enfin la même monnaie. 25 ans plus tard, ils partagent surtout les risques du cancre de la classe. Début octobre, la monnaie unique est tombée à 1,116$, son plus bas depuis mai 2025. Plusieurs analyses ont aussitôt mis la chute sur le compte de Madrid, où Pedro Sánchez a convoqué des législatives anticipées pour fin novembre. Le cancre est pourtant à Paris. En 2011, c'était la Grèce, et l'Europe se demandait chaque lundi si Athènes serait encore dans l'euro le vendredi. Puis ce fut l'Italie, dont Bruxelles a retoqué le budget en 2018. Depuis septembre, la France emprunte plus cher que Rome et Athènes, à près de 1,5 point au-dessus de l'Allemagne, un écart jamais vu depuis la crise grecque.
Pendant ce temps, Tokyo vend. Les investisseurs japonais détiennent environ 145G$ d'obligations françaises, bien plus que ne le prévoient leurs indices de référence. Chez le gérant d'actifs Sumitomo Mitsui DS, l'équipe obligataire internationale a vendu toutes ses obligations françaises. Elle a racheté de la dette allemande et de la dette japonaise à court terme. Elle préfère donc prêter à un État dont la dette dépasse 2x le PIB plutôt qu'à la France. Venant de Tokyo, la leçon devrait vexer Paris. Elle inquiète, ce qui est pire.
Cela dit, la France trouve encore des prêteurs. Début octobre, l'État a voulu emprunter 12G€ et les investisseurs lui en ont proposé 27G€. Ils restent là, mais ils se font payer de plus en plus cher. Le budget 2027 du gouvernement Lecornu prévoit un effort nouveau de 43G€. Dans le même budget, les intérêts de la dette de l'État passent de 62,6G€ à 72,9G€. Ces 10,3G€ supplémentaires représentent à eux seuls 24% de l'effort demandé. Les Français se serrent la ceinture, et ce sont les créanciers qui desserrent la leur. À ce rythme, la France deviendra un emprunteur impécunieux mais irréprochable, qui paie ses créanciers à l'heure et ses hôpitaux quand il peut.
À 6 mois de la présidentielle, une promesse budgétaire ne vaut pas plus qu'un tract. Les investisseurs le savent. Les députés aussi, qui s'apprêtent à amender le budget en pensant d'abord à leur candidat. Au bout du compte, c'est le primo-accédant qui paie. Son banquier calcule son taux à partir du rendement de l'emprunt d'État à 10 ans, qui a touché 4,96%, au plus haut depuis 2002. Le primo-accédant ne connaît rien aux spreads. Il sait seulement que la chambre du 2e enfant ne rentre plus dans son budget. Les Espagnols voteront fin novembre. Les créanciers de la France, eux, votent tous les matins, avec le taux qu'ils exigent.
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🗞️ Top Story
- 🇫🇷 Safety Last. Protests over school conditions in France escalated when a teenager’s hand was blown off during a confrontation with police, prompting a national investigation and renewed scrutiny of riot control tactics. (BBC)
- 🇩🇪 Shadow Play. Germany’s spy chief warns that Russia’s covert attacks on Europe could escalate into open conflict, citing real and imminent threats on German soil. (Boursier)
- 🇪🇸 House of Cards. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez calls snap elections for November 29 after Parliament rejects his key housing reforms, dissolving the government nine months early. (France Info)
- 🇩🇰 Identity Crisis. Denmark's national registry was breached, exposing names, addresses, and social security numbers of 8.8M people, living or dead, in a digital own goal for the government. (Le Monde)
- 🇺🇦 Kernel Panic. Ukraine's President Zelensky condemned Russia for striking a Turkish-owned cargo ship carrying corn in the Black Sea, killing at least two crew members and escalating the region's food security crisis. (BBC)
- 🇷🇺 Pest Control. Russian officials scramble to contain panic after a lab worker’s mysterious death at a plague institute, issuing reassurances as quarantines expand. (Die Zeit)
- 🇺🇸 Liability Check. The Supreme Court takes up Boulder’s lawsuit against Suncor Energy 🇨🇦 and Exxon Mobil 🇺🇸, weighing whether oil giants can be forced to pay for climate disasters. (New York Times)
- 🇨🇦 Referendone. The Parti Québécois reclaims Quebec’s government and immediately vows to stage a third independence referendum, proving old questions never really go away. (France Info)
- 🇦🇫 Crimes and Punishment. The ICC has unsealed warrants for Taliban leaders, charging them with crimes against humanity for stripping Afghan women and girls of basic rights since 2021. (Die Zeit)
- 🇾🇪 Strait Shooter. Yemen's pro-government military claims it has "secured" the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the Red Sea's southern entrance, launching a major offensive against the Houthi forces with Saudi air support and plenty of conflicting reports. (BBC)
- 🌍 Growing Pains. An international study finds cancer rates among people under 50 are rising fast, with lifestyle choices blamed for thousands of preventable cases each year. (The Guardian)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Dome Alone. The Conservatives unveil a £10B plan for a UK missile defense system named "Britannia Shield," inspired by Israel's Iron Dome, just in time for election season. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Royal Pardon? Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly Prince Andrew, is suing UK police after being arrested in the Epstein probe and released without charge. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇬🇧 Royal Pardon? Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, formerly Prince Andrew, is suing UK police after being arrested in the Epstein probe and released without charge. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Rocket Docket. The Supreme Court opens a new term with a major climate case while the race to build nuclear reactors on the Moon accelerates in the background. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Shot Caller. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is investigating pediatricians for allegedly pushing childhood vaccines for profit, demanding years of records and sparking fears of a chilling effect on immunizations. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Money Talks. Fairshake’s crypto PAC network is spending at least $6M to support 32 House hopefuls, betting big that campaign cash can buy a friendlier regulatory future. (CNBC)
🏛️ Economy
- 🇬🇧 Pound for Pound. The UK has lost $160B in billionaire wealth over two years as the super-rich pack their bags for friendlier tax homes. (Bloomberg)
- 🇫🇷 Gilt Trip. France's swelling debt and political turmoil are rattling global markets, sending the euro to a 17-month low and putting the ECB on intervention watch. (Bloomberg)
- 🇫🇷 Risky Business. French banks like Societe Generale 🇫🇷 now face higher credit insurance costs than peers such as Deutsche Bank 🇩🇪, thanks to mounting concerns over France's finances and politics. (Bloomberg)
- 🇩🇪 Current Affairs. Over one in three new cars registered in Germany last month was electric, with 88,600 new EVs hitting the roads thanks to a generous government subsidy. (Die Zeit)
- 🇪🇺 Budget Cut Above. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz claims that no new budget would be the cheapest option for Germany, but insists he still wants a deal this year. (Die Zeit)
- 🇺🇸 Jobocalypse Now. Silicon Valley leaders predict AI will wipe out millions of jobs by 2030, but economists say the data shows little evidence of mass unemployment so far. (Financial Times)
- 🇺🇸 Artificial Resistance. The AI boom is powering ahead undeterred by high borrowing costs, making the Fed’s inflation fight look increasingly one-sided. (New York Times)
- 🇨🇴 Flight Risk. Colombia's new government is reconsidering a €3.1B contract for 17 Gripen fighter jets from Saab 🇸🇪, putting the country's finances on turbulence alert. (Le Parisien)
- 🇭🇰 Bridge Over Troubled Markets. Bakai Bank's Hong Kong CEO calls the city a gateway for financial flows into Central Asia, betting on its global hub status to open new corridors. (Bloomberg)
- 🌏 Chip Happens. The World Bank has raised East Asia and Pacific’s growth outlook to 4.5% thanks to AI exports, but warns that heavy reliance on the AI boom could backfire if global tech spending cools. (CNBC)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Check Yourself. The UK government ditches its £1.8B digital ID plan, leaving start-ups to profit as millions adopt their own age and identity apps. (Financial Times)
- 🇬🇧 Whistle Stop. The FCA faces scrutiny as it investigates its own response to Simon Andriesz, who exposed Epstein links and later took his own life. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Claim Game. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Josh Hawley launch an inquiry into major insurers after reports reveal a surge in zero-payout claims for policyholders. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Yield Signs. Municipal borrowers like New Jersey's Transportation Trust Fund Authority are hitting the brakes on refinancing as bond yields hover near record highs. (Bloomberg)
🏢 Real Estate
- 🇬🇧 Fixed Feelings. The average five-year fixed mortgage rate in the UK has hit 6% for the first time since 2021, erasing nearly all sub-5% deals and leaving borrowers with little to smile about. (BBC)
- 🇫🇮 Speed Limit. Nokia CEO Justin Hotard says data centers could be built twice as fast if supply shortages vanished, proving AI demand is still outpacing reality. (CNBC)
- 🇭🇰 Artificial Selection. Hong Kong's central bank grills HSBC 🇬🇧 on why its new global AI hub will open in Singapore, not its home turf, as the rivalry between the two cities heats up. (Financial Times)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Rate Expectations. The average five-year fixed mortgage rate in the UK has jumped to 6% for the first time since 2021, as lenders react to bond market turmoil. (The Guardian)
🔗 On-chain
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Betting Man. Rep. Don Davis introduces a bill to ban federal candidates from wagering on their own election outcomes after his opponent was fined for trading on Kalshi. (CNBC)
💱 Listed Markets
- 🇫🇷 Margin Call. Air Liquide 🇫🇷 targets higher sales and a 10% compound annual earnings boost by 2030, because nothing says confidence like setting your own bar. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇦🇹 Nothing to See Here. Raiffeisen Bank International 🇦🇹 insists its own investigation debunks Grizzly Research's claims, reassuring investors that every box was ticked and every stone left unturned. (Bloomberg)
- 🇺🇸 Chip Happens. Nvidia 🇺🇸 is on the verge of hitting a $6T market cap, with options traders betting the milestone could come sooner than expected. (CNBC)
- 🇺🇸 Chip Shot. A single shoutout from Sam Altman sent Cerebras 🇺🇸 shares up 6%, because nothing says "bullish" like the OpenAI seal of approval. (CNBC)
- 🇺🇸 Fee Hunters. Goldman Sachs chases a CLO manager acquisition as Wall Street scrambles for new revenue streams in a $1T market where margins are shrinking. (Bloomberg)
- 🇨🇦 Cart Blanche. Shopify 🇨🇦 is doubling down on AI tools to automate pricing, catalog searches, and checkout, betting that algorithms know best how to close a sale. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇸🇦 Bank on It. Saudi IPO rules could soon require underwriters to purchase every unsold share, making banks think twice about backing future deals. (Bloomberg)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇺🇸 Fast Track. Citigroup is shortening its analyst program from three to two years, promising junior bankers quicker promotions as Wall Street’s talent war intensifies. (Financial Times)
🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)
- Ithaca Energy 🇬🇧 has agreed to acquire offshore Canadian oil assets from Suncor Energy 🇨🇦 for up to $1.11B.
- Schneider Electric 🇫🇷 is close to acquiring engineering software provider PTC 🇺🇸 for $20B at a 25% premium.
- Emeis 🇫🇷 has completed the sale of its operating activities in Latin America for approximately €111M. Land reserves in Mexico and Colombia remain pending, with expected proceeds of around €20M.
- SPIE 🇫🇷 has acquired a 94% stake in Clauser 🇫🇷, an industrial maintenance and high-intensity electrical installations company with about 100 employees and €22M in 2025 revenue.
- DWS Group 🇩🇪 has agreed to acquire 100% of Peakside Capital Advisors 🇨🇭, which manages €1.7B in assets.
- Eni 🇮🇹 and Repsol 🇪🇸 are considering bringing outside investors into the Perla natural gas JV off Venezuela 🇻🇪.
- Intesa Sanpaolo 🇮🇹 has sweetened its $35.3B takeover bid for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 🇮🇹, increasing the cash component to €3.8B, but warns it could withdraw if shareholders back rival deals.
- Intesa Sanpaolo 🇮🇹 has raised its takeover offer for Monte dei Paschi di Siena 🇮🇹 by €800M, valuing it at €35B. Delfin 🇱🇺 has committed to tendering its 17.6% stake.
- Galp Energia 🇵🇹 is exploring a partial divestment or stake sale in its renewable energy operations amid its deal to combine its refinery and gas station businesses with Moeve 🇪🇸.
- Axis Capital 🇮🇪 is considering a $2B cash offer for Permanent TSB 🇮🇪, three months after shareholders approved its $1.8B sale to BAWAG Group 🇦🇹.
- ON Semiconductor 🇺🇸 will acquire chip firm Synaptics 🇺🇸 for $5.7B in an all-cash deal.
- KKR 🇺🇸, Blackstone 🇺🇸 and Warburg Pincus 🇺🇸 are considering $3.4B bids for windshield repair company Cary Group 🇸🇪, owned by CVC 🇱🇺 and Nordic Capital 🇯🇪.
- Bain Capital 🇺🇸 is exploring an investment in New World Development 🇭🇰.
- Citadel Securities 🇺🇸 acquired a minority stake in Wolfe Research 🇺🇸, an equity research firm.
- Former Groq 🇺🇸 engineers sue over Nvidia 🇺🇸’s $20B deal with the startup, alleging stockholders were shortchanged. Groq calls the lawsuit meritless.
- C.H. Robinson Worldwide 🇺🇸 to acquire RXO 🇺🇸 in a stock-and-cash transaction valued at $5.8B.
- NextEra 🇺🇸 has proposed a $67B takeover of Dominion Energy 🇺🇸, pending approval by Virginia’s utility regulator.
- Abogen 🇨🇳 signed a $7.8B licensing deal with Novartis 🇨🇭 to develop mRNA-based therapies.
- Nippon Paint 🇯🇵 will acquire AkzoNobel 🇳🇱’s Southeast Asian decorative paints business for well over $1B.
- Shionogi 🇯🇵 has agreed to acquire IntraBio 🇺🇸 for $2B.
- CSL 🇦🇺 and Alentis Therapeutics 🇨🇭 agreed to a $1.6B deal to jointly develop and sell an experimental treatment for rare kidney and liver diseases.
🇺🇸 United States
- Graycliff Partners 🇺🇸 invests in ValveTek Utility Services 🇺🇸 and MeterTek Utility Services 🇺🇸, providers of water meter and distribution system services.
- Warburg Pincus 🇺🇸 has closed an investment in Awayday 🇺🇸. Ares and LightBay remain controlling shareholders.
🧳 Private Markets & VC
- 🇩🇪 Bot to the Future. German startup RobCo hits a $1B valuation as investors rush to back physical AI, proving robots are the new unicorns. (Bloomberg)
- 🇪🇺 Ghost Writer. OpenAI is embedding invisible watermarks in ChatGPT’s EU-generated text, quietly tagging every answer for regulators while users remain none the wiser. (TechCrunch)
- 🇺🇸 Policy Error. Insurers and lawyers scramble to assess if OpenAI and Anthropic bosses could be sued for damages caused by their AI’s “rogue” behavior. Directors and officers insurance may soon be put to the ultimate test. (Financial Times)
- 🇺🇸 Claude Out. The Department of Defense has now removed Anthropic’s Claude model from its intelligence platforms after months of controversy over security risks. (BBC)
- 🇦🇺 Agent Provocateur. OpenAI admitted its handling of a rogue AI agent that breached Australian government websites in June was inadequate and promised tighter safeguards after a delayed notification left officials unimpressed. (BBC)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Interest United. Manchester United's latest accounts reveal £852M paid in interest since the Glazer takeover, while Manchester City faces scrutiny for inflating income by £830M. The two sides of Manchester's football riches have never looked more different. (BBC)
- 🇬🇧 Cut Above. Lidl posted a 10% sales surge and £245.5M profit, with bargain prices and upscale lines pushing it past Morrisons for fifth place. (The Guardian)
Fundraising
- FieldAI 🇺🇸 (Robotics): $700M
- SignSplit 🇺🇸 (Technology): $400M (W Group)
- General Intuition 🇺🇸 (AI): $220M (Valor Equity Partners, Atreides, Seven Seven Six, Point72, Khosla Ventures, General Catalyst)
- Factory 🇺🇸 (AI): $200M (Menlo Ventures)
- Valon Technologies 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $150M (Ribbit Capital, Andreessen Horowitz)
- Model ML (Financial services): $100M (HSBC Asset Management, FT Partners, QED Investors)
- Metal 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $50M (Airwallex, Capital 49)
- Namespace 🇨🇭 (Developer infrastructure): $42M (Scale Venture Partners, 20VC, NEA, Essence, Burst Capital, Olivier Pomel)
- Hadrian 🇳🇱 (Cybersecurity): $40M
- Clockwork.io 🇺🇸 (AI): $31M (Premji Invest, Wing Venture Capital, Seligman Ventures, NEA, e& Capital)
- Exthymic 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): Up to $25M
- Pro Shop 🇺🇸 (Media): $24M (Arthur M. Blank Sports and Entertainment, Causeway Media Partners, Ares Sports, Media and Entertainment, PGA Tour, Powerhouse Capital, Phoenix Capital Ventures)
- OneByZero 🇸🇬 (AI): $20M
- Novele 🇺🇸 (Energy): $17M (Boisei Labs)
- Buntar Aerospace 🇺🇦 (Defense tech): €14.3M (Freedom Fund, undisclosed international private equity fund, Gardar Venture Capital, Iron Wolf Capital, Autonomy Capital)
- Pandektes 🇩🇰 (Legaltech): €13.5M
- Consano Bio 🇺🇸 (Biotech): More than $15M
- Reclinker 🇬🇧 (CleanTech): £10M (Clean Growth Fund, AP Ventures, Development Bank of Wales, Kibo Invest, Zero Carbon Capital, Cambridge Enterprise)
- Ocius-X 🇸🇪 (Technology): SEK 125M (Viking Growth)
- Ghost 🇺🇸 (AI): $11M
- UpSmith 🇺🇸 (AI): $10M (SemperVirens, Hannah Grey Ventures, Asymmetric Capital Partners, CIV, Synetro Group, WaterStone Impact Fund, Sandwith Ventures, Deason Capital Services, Zachary Bookman)
- Hestus 🇺🇸 (AI): $7.4M (Insight Partners)
- Umia 🇺🇸 (Blockchain): $6M (Galaxy Ventures, DCG, Draper Associates, RenGen, Alpha EV, Maven 11, Eon Capital)
- Nettle 🇬🇧🇺🇸 (Insurtech): $4.8M (MTech, Project A Ventures, SVV, Portfolio Ventures, Ventures Together, angel investors)
- Rodinia Generation 🇩🇰 (FashionTech): €4M (Vitamin°C, Climentum Capital, EIFO)
- Eden AI Labs 🇺🇸 (AI): $1.5M (Gaea Ventures, Becker Ventures, GTM Ventures)
- SereNeuro Therapeutics 🇺🇸 (Biotech): Pre-seed financing
- SecondSight 🇺🇸 (AI): Undisclosed
Fund Watch
- Amazon 🇺🇸: $8B (Nvidia chip sale-leaseback to external investors)
- Partners Group 🇨🇭: $7.7B (flagship private equity fund overhaul, splitting underperforming and newer assets)
- Azora 🇪🇸: €1.6B (Southern Europe Opportunities III real estate fund, closed)
- Niobrara Capital Partners 🇺🇸: $1.5B (Founders Fund and co-investment vehicles, inaugural close)
- Investcorp 🇧🇭: $1.2B (new North American private equity fund)
- Energy Capital Partners (ECP) 🇺🇸: $834M (continuation vehicle for Next Wave Energy Partners)
- Iron Path Capital 🇺🇸: $450M (Fund II, oversubscribed private equity fund, closed)
🔔IPO
- Generali 🇮🇹 (Insurance): acquired a 9.9% stake in Banco de Crédito Cooperativo for $170M.
- Volare Shipping 🇳🇴 (Shipping): shares rose 7.5% to 165.50 kroner on their first trading day.
- Anthropic 🇺🇸 (AI): planning a pre-IPO investor day ahead of a potential $100B IPO.
- Moonshot AI 🇨🇳 (AI): targeting a Hong Kong IPO in Q1 2027 after reaching a $50B valuation.
- Shein 🇸🇬 (Fashion): Goldman Sachs bought $220M worth of shares through a greenshoe option after its weak IPO debut.
- Mynt 🇵🇭 (Fintech): set to raise $844M at a $7B valuation in the Philippines’ largest-ever IPO.
🧳 Debt
- Paramount 🇺🇸: sold $52B of loans and bonds to fund its $110B Warner Bros. Discovery takeover.
- Bain Capital 🇺🇸: launched a €4.7B leveraged-loan financing for its Volkswagen deal.
- IMF 🇧🇴: approved a $1.9B financing program for Bolivia.
- Nidec 🇯🇵: renewing $3.8B in committed credit lines amid an accounting scandal.
- Japan 🇯🇵: 10-year bond auction drew solid demand, with a 3.76 bid-to-cover ratio.
❌ Failures
- TalkTalk 🇬🇧: BT is considering an improved offer for the struggling broadband provider after its initial bid was rejected.
- Partners Group Private Equity 🇬🇧: investors voted to sell their holdings and return cash, paving the way for an orderly wind-down.
- SEFE 🇩🇪: the state-owned energy firm hired Lazard to explore reprivatization after a $7B bailout in 2022.
- Bayer 🇩🇪: will close its Frankfurt plant by the end of 2028, cutting 500 jobs in Germany.
🎯 For a Few More Minutes…
- 🇸🇪 Bright Minds. Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann, and Georg Nagel win the 2026 Nobel in Medicine for their work on optogenetics, turning the brain’s inner workings into a light show for science. (Le Parisien)
- 🇪🇺 Lost and Routed. Researchers have created a "Google Maps" for Roman roads, mapping 299,000 kilometers of ancient pathways and inviting the public to get historically lost. (Ouest-France)
- 🇻🇳 Cat Burglaries. Vietnamese police arrested 12 men accused of stealing 2,700 cats for meat, raiding neighborhoods at night and supplying the restaurant trade. (Le Parisien)
