๐Ÿคฏ Schrรถdinger's Layoff

The numbers are up, down and sidewaysโ€”take your pick.

A Free Lunch newsletter archive of 21 October 2026

Good morning!

The Fed's latest Beige Book, its canvass of business across 12 districts, found firms in 5 of them letting staff go unreplaced or putting off hiring after investing in AI. Case closed, apparently, until the same technology is read through a second instrument and returns the opposite verdict. Sorted by how much of their work AI could do, workers aged 22 to 25 in the most exposed jobs now trail their peers by almost a fifth. Sorted by what firms actually pay for it, the heaviest spenders hire faster than the timid. The economists who steer trillion-dollar policy by the decimal point cannot say whether the biggest shift in office work since the personal computer adds jobs or subtracts them.

The apparatus meant to settle it was built for typewriters and rolling steel. America's monthly jobs report still tips software publishers, newspapers and film studios into one bucket marked "information", as though an engineer at a software giant and a copy editor at a dying weekly were the same beast. That is precisely the bucket where AI's biggest buyers do most of their hiring. The household survey still rests on an exiguous 60,000 homes, the sample of 1981, so fewer than 50 answers can move the jobless rate by a tenth of a point. Britain is no better: its statisticians pulled their labour force figures in 2023, when fewer than one household in five still answered, and hope to replace the survey by late 2027.

Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta will spend more than $700B on the machines this year, roughly 75% more than last. Moving America's household survey online would cost about $60M a year, under an hour of that capex. Questions on AI would come later, in a redesign nobody has priced. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has lost a fifth of its real budget since 2010. Its previous head, confirmed by the Senate 86 to 8, was sacked last year after a soft jobs report Donald Trump called "rigged". Trump's first pick to replace her, a think-tank economist who had floated suspending the monthly jobs report, lasted weeks before a deleted X account surfaced. The seat stayed empty for a year. Nothing sharpens a dataset like firing the person who compiles it.

The profession will say both readings can hold at once, and it may be right. It is a restful conclusion for anyone who still has a job. Somewhere in that fog sits a 22-year-old with a fresh degree and an inbox of polite rejections, in a cohort whose unemployment, 5.6%, now runs above the national 4.2%. Whether an algorithm took his opening or a jumpy CFO did, the data cannot yet say. The graduate is not a mixed signal. He is unemployed. And the richest economy on earth, pouring $700B a year into these machines, would rather not spend $60M to find out what they cost.

๐Ÿคฏ Schrรถdinger's Layoff

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๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ Top Story

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Spy Hard. UK police have rearrested two men under the National Security Act for allegedly assisting Iranian intelligence near RAF Fairford, marking the clearest official link yet to Tehran. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Drone Alone. Several unauthorized drones flew over sensitive French military sites, including Toulonโ€™s naval base, during a major exercise, prompting a criminal investigation and some nervous glances skyward. (France Info)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Mail Storm. Hackers leaked what they claim are 421,000 internal emails from AfD politicians, exposing years of party correspondence and sparking questions about the partyโ€™s digital hygiene. (Die Zeit)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น Street Cred. Giorgia Meloni sends 500 more soldiers to Milan after violent protests and looting, betting that military boots will restore order faster than police. (Spiegel)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด Majority Rules. After four failed attempts, Romania finally installs Luca Niculescu as prime minister, ending a five-month stalemate with a pro-European cabinet and a sigh of parliamentary relief. (Le Figaro)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ธ Spy Hard. Rade Bajic, a Serbian prosecutor who investigated the $500M Trump hotel project in Belgrade, says he was targeted by commercial spyware after probing the controversial land deal. (Le Figaro)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Luxury Backlash. Albania faces violent unrest as public anger boils over a controversial development deal involving Jared Kushner, with Edi Rama struggling to contain the fallout. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Poll Position. Trump hits an all-time low with just 31% approval, as Democrats surge 12 points ahead in the latest midterm poll and economic discontent grows. (Boursier)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Pitch Perfect. Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy, will present proposed peace terms to Vladimir Putin after a round of Oslo discussions with Zelensky and European leaders. (Le Monde)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ต Rumour Has It. North Korea released fresh photos of Kim Jong Un looking healthy, yet wild rumours of his death keep circulating in the absence of hard facts. (BBC)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Unqualified Majority. Modi's government loses its grip as student-led protests over joblessness and exam fraud escalate, with the "Cockroach Party" turning satire into a movement. (Le Monde)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Exit Strategy. President Abdel Fattah al-Sissi insists he will leave office in 2030, but his actions suggest Egyptโ€™s military rule is built to last. (Le Monde)
  • ๐ŸŒ Hot Take. The latest UN report says global efforts are so inadequate that breaching the 1.5ยฐC climate goal is now inevitable, with 2.6ยฐC looming by century's end. (France Info)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง State of the Art. Britain rolled out the red carpet for Sultan Haitham, blending royal spectacle with strategic talks as Omanโ€™s mediation becomes more valuable than ever. (BBC)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Free Fall. Support for the NHS being free at point of use, open to all, and tax-funded is slipping among UK residents, according to new data. (The Guardian)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Gas Lighting. Andy Burnham gives the green light to the Jackdaw gasfield, reaffirming support for North Sea drilling while torching Labourโ€™s eco-credentials. (The Guardian)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Red State of Mind. James Talarico is polling ahead in the Texas Senate race, threatening to flip a seat Democrats have not held in nearly 40 years and making Republicans spend $200M to stop him. (New York Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Ad Vantage. MAGA Inc., Donald Trump's super PAC, spent over $1.1M in a single day on Facebook and Instagram ads to drive Republican turnout before the midterms, leaving rivals in the digital dust. (New York Times)

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Economy

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Gilt Trip. UK government bonds rebound from their spring sell-off as investors bet a low-key Budget will keep fiscal nerves under control for now. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Paywall Nation. Chancellor John Healey will not revive the investor visa in the UK Budget, leaving wealthy would-be arrivals and their ยฃ5M investments at the border. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Bond Voyage. Investors are dumping French debt while Macronโ€™s government is too boxed in to spend or cut, fueling both populist momentum and market anxiety. (New York Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Grain Drain. Wheat futures dropped to an 11-week low as traders ditched risk premiums following pressure on Ukraine to pursue peace talks with Russia. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Summit Deferred. Saudi Arabia has postponed its flagship investment summit to 2027 after a series of Houthi attacks, putting its global ambitions on hold for now. (Bloomberg)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Job Well Done. UK unemployment unexpectedly drops to 4.7%, handing Chancellor John Healey a timely boost just days before he unveils his budget. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Target Practice. Katharine Braddick, the new head of the Bank of Englandโ€™s Prudential Regulation Authority, will introduce performance targets and a five-year strategy to make the regulator more accountable and transparent for the first time. (Financial Times)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Forecast Force. Max Tunnicliff, Fastenalโ€™s CFO, is using AI to build a forward-looking finance team, moving the company from rearview reporting to actual strategy. (Wall Street Journal)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Field of Schemes. President Trump unveils an $8B bailout for farmers hit by rising diesel costs, just two weeks before midterms where rural votes matter most. (New York Times)

๐Ÿข Real Estate

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Rate Race. Mortgage rates in Germany have hit 4.5 percent, their highest level since 2009, as inflation and Middle East tensions drive up borrowing costs for homebuyers and builders alike. (Die Zeit)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Closing Time. pending home sales plunged 7.3% in September, blindsiding economists who expected a rise, as mortgage rates slam the door on buyers. (Boursier)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Home Sick. The housing market slumps as building permits, starts, and sales all miss forecasts, just as the Fed considers another rate hike. (CNBC)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Byte Club. Amazon Web Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ gets the green light to build a $205M data center in Santiagoโ€™s outskirts, kicking off a $4B digital land grab in Chile. (Le Monde)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Server Down. NextDC ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ saw its stock nosedive 40% as it cut its earnings outlook, proving even data centers can experience a hard crash. (CNBC)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Wall to Wall. Sullivan & Cromwell plans to double its London footprint by leasing 150,000 sq ft at 75 London Wall, as US law firms muscle into the UKโ€™s priciest legal turf. (Financial Times)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Ice Age. Pending home sales plunged 7.3% in September as mortgage rates soared past 7.6%, leaving the housing market frozen in place. (CNBC)

๐Ÿ’ฑ Listed Markets

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Cloud Nine. Amazon ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ unveils a โ‚ฌ16B investment spree in Germany, with AWS data centers and thousands of new jobs set to rain down on Berlin. (Boursier)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Service Not Found. Googleโ€™s cloud hiccup in London left major banks and users in the dark, while the company scrambled to reroute and recover. (New York Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Cleared for Takeoff. After years of regulatory scrutiny and delays, Boeing's 737 MAX 10 is expected to get official FAA approval, reviving hopes for its commercial rollout. (Boursier)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Bond Identity. CoreWeaveโ€™s $2B unsecured bonds are tanking, but analysts say this is no Silicon Valley Bank moment for the trillion-dollar AI build-out. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Ellison Wonderland. Larry Ellison skipped selling $7.5B in Oracle ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ shares, choosing instead to borrow billions against his tech holdings to bankroll his sonโ€™s Warner Bros. Discovery bid. The buy-borrow-die playbook gets a Hollywood rewrite. (Wall Street Journal)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Plane and Simple. Boeingโ€™s 737 MAX 10 finally gets the green light from regulators to carry passengers, after a brief software hiccup and years of anticipation. (Wall Street Journal)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Profit and Loss. The Bank of England is reviewing whether Barclays ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง padded its bottom line by mishandling derivatives linked to private credit loans, thanks to a whistleblower tip. (The Guardian)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Office Space Invaders. NatWest tells 30,000 staff to increase their in-office days from February, sparking union backlash as remote-first routines face extinction. (Financial Times)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Well Played. Halliburton ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ posts a $417M profit for the quarter as revenue surges, proving that drilling deeper can still strike gold. (Wall Street Journal)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Prime Numbers. Amazon ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ will add more than 300,000 jobs for the holidays, making sure its deliveries. And payroll. Arrive right on schedule. (Wall Street Journal)

๐Ÿ›Ž๏ธ Big Deals (M&A)

  • Primary Health Properties ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง forms a $933M venture with GIC ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ, receiving $663M to repay a bridge loan used to finance its takeover of Assura ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง.
  • HSBC Asset Management ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง is reviewing whether to exclude Palantir ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ from its $9B Islamic Global Equity Index fund after Nest ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง and Peopleโ€™s Pension ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง raised concerns.
  • Anne Boden ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง sold her remaining stake in Starling Bank ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง at a ยฃ1.7B valuation.
  • Carrefour ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท has agreed to acquire Codifrance ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท from Colruyt ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช for $170M.
  • Fleury Michon ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท acquires 100% of All Plants ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง, a plant-based food company, for a business generating approximately โ‚ฌ5M in annual revenue.
  • Merck ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช has agreed to acquire Silence Therapeutics ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง for $1.1B in cash, at a 130% premium.
  • Rheinmetall ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช and MSC ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ have acquired Romanian shipyard Mangalia ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด for $155M.
  • UniCredit ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น has reportedly agreed to reacquire its Italian securities-services business from Sociรฉtรฉ Gรฉnรฉrale ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท. Financial terms were not disclosed.
  • Salesforce ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ has agreed to acquire customer-engagement platform Braze ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ for $5.66B including debt.
  • Silgan Holdings ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ has agreed to acquire Europeโ€™s Trivium Packaging ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ from Ontario Teachersโ€™ Pension Plan ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ and Ardagh ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ for $3.4B, including debt.
  • Ares ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ will acquire railcar leasing company Infinity Transportation ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ from KKR ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ for $2.9B.
  • H.B. Fuller ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ rejected activist Ancora Holdings ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธโ€™ improved unsolicited $1.2B-$1.4B cash bid for its building adhesives unit.
  • Charlesbank Capital Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ agreed to acquire a stake in law firm WSHB ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ at a $700M valuation.
  • RedBird Capital ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ is in talks to acquire a 70% stake in Al Nassr ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ from PIF ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ for $267M. PIF is racing to repay $213M in club debt, while Cristiano Ronaldo is expected to retain a 20% stake.
  • Forward Consumer Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ will acquire Welly ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง, Unileverโ€™s bandage brand.
  • Tesla ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ and SpaceX ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ are considering a merger valued at roughly $3.5T, with special committees assessing the potential deal. Nothing has been agreed.
  • OpenAI ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ has acquired AI biotech software startup Orchestra Bio ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ.
  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ has agreed to a $15B partnership and licensing deal with Roche ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ for targeted cancer therapies.
  • Foxconn ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ผ to acquire a 50% stake in Mitsubishi Electric ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต's automotive components unit for $727M.
  • Metis TechBio ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ and Eli Lilly ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ will collaborate on R&D for tissue-specific drug delivery technologies in a $1.1B deal.
  • SG Fleet Management ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ, backed by Pacific Equity Partners ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ, has agreed to acquire FleetPartners Group ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ for $790M at an 87% premium.
  • New Hope Corp. ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ will acquire the remaining stake in Malabar Resources ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ in an all-stock deal valuing it at $1.25B.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • Platform Accounting Group ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ announces $355M in strategic growth financing led by Treville Capital Group ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ, with participation from several institutional investors.

๐Ÿงณ Private Markets & VC

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง App and Flow. Revolut ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง suffered a major outage that left customers worldwide unable to make payments, proving even fintech giants can hit pause. (Sifted)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Paper Chase. Axel Springer gets the green light to buy The Telegraph for ยฃ575M, aiming to challenge the New York Times on its own turf. (Le Figaro)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Case Closed. Starling ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง unveils an AI-powered financial crime investigator that completes end-to-end transaction reviews in just 17 seconds, making compliance look almost too easy. (FinExtra)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Stranger Than Fiction. Hugging Face CEO Clem Delangue says Netflixโ€™s โ€œAI Gone Rogueโ€ distorts the OpenAI hack story, accusing the documentary of prioritizing sci-fi drama over reality. (TechCrunch)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Processing Fee. Anthropic eyes a $45B purchase of Nscale's AI horsepower, turning data center shopping into a pre-IPO spectacle for both sides. (Boursier)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Catch of the Day. Investors throw $150M behind Eka Robotics, whose AI-powered gripper can pick up 1,500 objects an hour and impresses even the skeptics. (TechCrunch)
  • ๐ŸŒ Thintech. Fintech startups raised $10.6B in Q3 2026, down sharply from last year as the market trims both funding and the number of deals on offer. (Crunchbase)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Risky Business. UK pension funds have committed ยฃ11.1B to unlisted domestic assets, yet industry insiders warn that barriers and slow progress could derail the government's private market push. (Financial Times)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Factory Settings. Bob McGrew, a former OpenAI executive, has quietly launched Arda, a $1.5B startup aiming to use AI to boost manufacturing. (CNBC)

Fundraising

  • Tenstorrent ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (AI): $1.5B (Trace Capital, Innovation X)
  • Neolix ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Mobility): $400M (Boyu Capital, AEF NextGen Fund, Monolith Management, Granite Asia Capital, Vertex, Stone Venture, Trustar Capital)
  • ASI ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $325M (Spark Capital, Craft Ventures, Andreessen Horowitz, Citadel Securities affiliates)
  • Otter.ai ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $320M (General Catalyst's Customer Value Fund)
  • Pigment ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท (AI): $250M (Scaleup Europe Fund, Nvidia, World Innovation Lab, Iconiq, IVP, Meritech)
  • doubleAI (AI): $200M (Lightspeed, Bessemer)
  • Town ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $108M (Forerunner Ventures, Menlo Ventures)
  • Blackwall ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Cybersecurity): $100M (AVP, Dawn Capital, MMC Ventures, Tera Ventures)
  • Dream Labs ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Robotics): $90M (B Capital, Kindred Ventures)
  • Daytona ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $60M (FirstMark, Patrick Collison, Adam Dโ€™Angelo, Brendan Foody, Tobi Lรผtke, Olivier Pomel, Aravind Srinivas, Eric Yuan, Alumni Ventures, Evergreen Fund, Okta Ventures, Qualcomm Ventures, Samsung Next, Torch Capital, Pace Capital, Upfront Ventures, E2VC)
  • Even ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Healthcare): $50M (Khosla Ventures)
  • Greptile ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Developer tools): $50M (Menlo Ventures)
  • Different ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $48M (General Catalyst, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Together Fund, Haystack Ventures, MXV Capital, Firebolt Ventures)
  • Holyvolt ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $45M (Zone II, CC.VC)
  • ZAP Surgical Systems ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Healthcare): $36M (Catalio Capital Management)
  • Hyperlayer ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Fintech): ยฃ19.5M (Flintlock Capital, Mouro Capital, Susquehanna Private Equity Investments, LLLP)
  • Qualitate ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Market research): $25M (Insight Partners, IA Ventures, Crew Capital)
  • AuxoAI ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $20.7M (NTTVC, George Still Jr., Amit Zavery, Giacomo Sonnino)
  • Prism Data ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Fintech): $20M (Story Ventures)
  • Atombeam ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $18.3M
  • Mural ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Fintech): $15M (Tether, North Island Ventures)
  • POV Beauty (Beauty): $15M (Silas Capital)
  • IMIO ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Agtech): $12M (Sofinnova Partners, Cultivate Next, Starshot Capital, Grow Together Salinas, Earth Foundry, Serra Ventures)
  • Photon Bridge ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ (Photonics): โ‚ฌ10M
  • VECKTA ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Energy): $11M (Origin Ventures, Tech Square Ventures, VoLo Earth Ventures, Cove Fund, Catalyst by Wellstar, Engage, Emerald Bay Ventures, She's Independent Investments, Mobilize AI x Energy Ventures)
  • Skyfly Technologies ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Aviation): $10M (HICO Investment Group, Archangel)
  • XRlabs ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Healthcare): โ‚ฌ7.48M (Playground Global, Eka Ventures)
  • Rosie ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Childcare): $7M (Bling Capital, Reach Capital, Graham & Walker, Marketplace Capital, Ingeborg Investments, Precursor Ventures, Mother Ventures, Yonder Ventures, Evan Moore)
  • Cellbox Solutions ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช (Logistics): โ‚ฌ5M
  • Asymptote Labs ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Cybersecurity): $5.5M (Tower Research Ventures)
  • Fodere ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Mining): US$5M
  • Stellios Technologies ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Defense): $5M (Sofreh Capital, Wave Function Ventures, Cubit Capital, Mana Ventures, Atoms & Bits, Output Capital, Erik Bruckner)
  • Gradient ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Fintech): $4M (VentureFriends, Acadian Ventures, TinyVC, Heartfelt, Kima Ventures)
  • Plinto ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ (Fintech): โ‚ฌ2.9M (People Ventures, Emblem)
  • Coherence Quantum (Quantum computing): โ‚ฌ2.78M
  • Delegance Brokerage ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Insurtech): $3.1M (Grit Capital Partners, Core VC, Gilgamesh Ventures, Outside VC)
  • Vectorial ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI): $3M
  • Ganiga ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น (AI): โ‚ฌ2.5M (Vivenda, NextSTEP)
  • Remolonas ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ (Foodtech): โ‚ฌ2.2M (Clave Capital, EONIQ, SEGO Venture)
  • Emerald ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Healthcare): โ‚ฌ1.66M (Innovate UK)
  • SMYCLES ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช (AI): โ‚ฌ1.5M (IBG funds, bmp Ventures AG, two private investors)
  • Northstar Clean Technologies ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (Environmental): C$2.1384M (Allmine Paving, LLC)
  • EstateMin ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ช (Legaltech): โ‚ฌ1M (NDRC, First Port Syndicate, Mike Hanrahan, Moira McKenna, Conor Stanley, Enterprise Ireland)
  • Paidax ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฟ (Fintech): $1M (DOMiNO Ventures, Philip Capital, White Hill Capital, Aloqa Ventures)
  • Jenz ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด (AI): โ‚ฌ540K (Antler, Ada Ventures)

Fund Watch

  • Latigo Peak Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $18.6B (new wealth management firm for UHNWIs)
  • EnCap Investments ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $3.5B (continuation vehicle for Permian Basin mineral assets, anchored by Melange Capital Partners)
  • Ara Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $2.5B (Ara Energy Fund I, energy fund, final close)
  • BBAM ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $1.7B (3rd flagship aviation fund)
  • Graphite Capital ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: $666M (10th flagship fund, currently raising)
  • Monomoy Capital Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $589M (inaugural Monomoy Family Fund, closed above $500M hard cap)
  • Inspired Capital ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $450M (Fund IV, early-stage venture capital fund, closed)
  • Banca March ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ: $267M (4th international private equity fund of funds, seeking to raise)
  • Clara Vista Investment Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $250M (sports investment fund, seeking to invest in soccer clubs in Europe and Latin America)
  • Amundi ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท: โ‚ฌ200M (Amundi Senior Private Debt V, 5th private debt fund, first closing)
  • SEVA Growth ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $160M (2nd growth equity fund)
  • Bison Ventures ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $160M (Fund 2, early-stage VC fund, closed)
  • Marjo Koivisto ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ: launching her own private credit firm
  • NeoGenesis Capital ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: launched debut fund for Colossal Biosciences spinouts

๐Ÿ””IPO

  • Elice ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท (Technology): raised $150M at a $500M valuation in a Korea IPO.
  • DayOne Data Centers ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ (Data centers): weighing a US IPO that could raise $5B at a $20B valuation, potentially reduced to $2.5B-$3B or delayed.
  • Mynt ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญ (Fintech): debuted after the Philippinesโ€™ record IPO.

๐Ÿงณ Debt

  • Orano ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท: raised โ‚ฌ500M through 7-year bonds to refinance debt.
  • Optiver ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ: seeking to raise $900M in debt.
  • Walmart ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: set to raise $6B through U.S. and Canadian dollar bonds.
  • Kimberly-Clark ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: raised $4.9B in investment-grade bonds to fund its Kenvue acquisition.
  • Las Vegas Valley Water District ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: seeking to sell $580M in municipal bonds.
  • The Villages ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: seeking $180M in high-yield debt.
  • 475 Fifth Avenue ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: paused a $175M MBS sale amid rising yields.
  • MTR ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ: borrowing $5B to build rail for the Northern Metropolis.
  • PLS Group ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ: seeking to raise $700M through five-year bonds.
  • Tomer ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ: preparing a $200M bond sale.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • Idea Financial ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: launched a joint venture with up to $225M in lending capacity.
  • Pivot Energy ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: secured a $500M corporate facility from Nuveen.

โŒ Failures

  • B&M ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: the discount retailer is seeking to acquire a small number of stores from struggling rival Poundland.
  • BBC ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: facing declining revenues, the broadcaster plans to cut up to 2,000 jobs and save ยฃ500M by 2028.
  • Qualcomm ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: the chipmaker will cut an undisclosed number of jobs worldwide in performance-focused layoffs.
  • National Australia Bank (NAB) ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ: will cut 2,500 jobs, or 6% of its workforce, citing technological change, competition and economic challenges.
  • Macquarie Group ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ: several oil traders left as the bank merged two commodity-trading units.
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • Flutter Entertainment ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: the Paddy Power owner plans to cut up to 1,400 jobs and take a $90 million restructuring charge.
  • Thames Water ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: creditors are pursuing a ยฃ10bn rescue deal for the struggling water supplier.

๐ŸŽฏ For a Few More Minutesโ€ฆ

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Ticket to Ride. Liverpool will open a massive new Beatles museum in 2028, with Apple Corps taking over and Paul McCartney calling the project โ€œextraordinary.โ€ (The Guardian)

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