๐ŸชŸ Open Window Logic

Air in, savings out, all year round.

A Free Lunch newsletter archive of July 21, 2026

Good morning!

A tax cut comes wrapped in a promise that the saving reaches the customer, and confidence nobody checks whether it does. A French minister drops the VAT on air-to-air heat pumps from 20% to 5.5% mid-heatwave, and the press release pledges comfort across all four seasons, a phrase with the scent of an open-plan office chilled to 19ยฐC while the country cooks at 40ยฐC. Britain ran the identical manoeuvre in 2022, when Rishi Sunak zero-rated the very same units as a dividend of leaving Brussels, its savings advertised to households that could already afford them. A saving is whatever the seller consents not to keep.

Help to Buy ran the experiment first: a decade of taxpayer money for first-time buyers, after which new-build prices rose at twice the rate of everything else and developers grew rich. Persimmon’s profits climbed from ยฃ225M in 2012 to about ยฃ1.1B by 2018, half its sales riding the scheme. Jeff Fairburn, its chief executive, who left school at 17 and grasped leverage rather better than tact, took a bonus the papers christened ยซย Mr ยฃ131 millionย ยป, trimmed to ยฃ75M after a revolt, then marched off a BBC interview rather than answer for it. The scheme did precisely what it advertised. It moved an enormous sum, never toward the buyers on the label.

America turned the same failure into an academic discipline. The mechanism has a name: pass-through, the share of a tax break that survives a seller’s pricing power. On solar subsidies it tracks market power more than generosity, the buyer’s cut set by the installer’s competition, not Congress. The Inflation Reduction Act’s 30% credit bred prepaid leases in which the installer holds the break and decides, graciously, how much to pass down, before Washington scrapped it at the end of 2025, after years of subsidising the rises it called affordability. The figure waved at families only caps the seller’s charity; the lever nobody touches sits beneath it: land, permits, the cost of building. Supply stays bolted shut, so the money climbs the only rung left: the margin.

Back where this began, the government admits its energy label cannot register a home that overheats, then moves to keep the worst-rated flats rented on a promise of works someday. Not one of these schemes rates a dwelling for its power to kill in a heatwave; each files air-conditioning under decarbonisation, as though cooling a badly built box on the grid were ecology, a category error paid in bodies. In England, the summer of 2022, when the country first crossed 40ยฐC, 2,803 more people over 65 died than an ordinary year takes, most of them at home, in rooms that had turned into ovens. That is the comfort the policy delivers, four seasons out of four: the comfort of the margin, the only thing here that never suffers a bad season.

๐ŸชŸ Open Window Logic

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๐Ÿ—ž๏ธ Top Story

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Seven Up. Andy Burnham becomes the UK’s seventh Prime Minister in a decade, receiving the royal nod and unveiling a bold ten-year vision for the country. (Spiegel)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Flame Game. The La Mierla fire continues out of control for a fifth day, encircling villages and driving over 1,000 residents from their homes as Spain swelters. (Boursier)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Big Apple Immunity. Donald Trump insists Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will not face arrest in New York, dismissing Mayor Mamdani’s suggestion that city officials are considering it. (Cnbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Blame Canada. With over 360 new wildfires in a week and smoke reaching New York, Trump threatens tariffs over Canadaโ€™s โ€œdirty airโ€ while Canada battles one of its worst fire seasons. (Les Echos)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Sworn Enemies. Abelardo de la Espriella, Colombiaโ€™s incoming hard-right leader, says guerrillas are offering $1M to kill him ahead of his August 7 swearing-in. (Le Figaro)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ป๐Ÿ‡ช August Rush. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announces Venezuela’s democratic transition will kick off in early August, with Washington orchestrating talks between rival factions and backing a new unity government after this year’s deadly earthquakes. (El Pais)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฎ No Contest. President Ortega rules out future elections in Nicaragua, making it clear that power transfers are off the table for good. (Spiegel)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Pest Control. Indian police cracked down on Gen Z-led โ€œCockroach Movementโ€ protesters demanding exam reform, wielding tear gas and sticks to keep them from Parliament. (Spiegel)
  • ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Mayor Culpa. Fatma Kaplan Hรผrriyet, opposition mayor of Izmit, was arrested along with her husband in the latest sweep against CHP politicians, as Ankara insists it is just following the law. (Spiegel)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท La pression s’accentue. Les ร‰tats-Unis mรจnent une nouvelle sรฉrie de frappes contre l’Iran et annoncent de nouveaux droits de douane, intensifiant ainsi la pression sur deux fronts sans relรขche. (Bloomberg) (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡พ๐Ÿ‡ช Port Authority. The Houthis warn they may block ships from reaching Saudi Arabia, escalating tensions and putting regional shipping lanes on high alert. (Financial Times)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Burnham Notice. Andy Burnham delivered his first Downing Street speech as prime minister, unveiling a โ€œcircuit breaker for Britainโ€ and a 10-year plan for reform. (The Guardian)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Healey Unchained. Andy Burnham stuns Labour MPs by naming John Healey as chancellor, passing over the expected favorite Shabana Mahmood for the top Treasury job. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Prime Suspect. Authorities have charged Joshua Kerry with murdering Ann Widdecombe, whose high-profile political and television career ended in tragedy this month. (New York Times)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Family Plan. The Trump-era DOJ subpoenaed phone records linked to relatives of New York Times reporters to trace leaks about Air Force One security. (Wall Street Journal)

๐Ÿ›๏ธ Economy

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Gilt Trip. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnhamโ€™s talk of โ€œbudget flexibilityโ€ sent gilts tumbling and the pound sliding as markets braced for more debt. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Cash Ceiling. New Prime Minister Andy Burnham moves to cap political donations, threatening to close the VIP entrance to British democracy. (Le Parisien)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Current Affairs. Rotterdam launches modest green initiatives like hydrogen and offshore wind, but its fossil fuel dominance keeps Europe plugged in for now. (Le Monde)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Rate Siesta. The ECB is expected to skip a July rate hike and hold steady until September, making this summer meeting the least essential event on its calendar. (Les Echos)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Fine Print. The will suspend methane emission fines for oil and gas companies until the end of 2029, citing energy security concerns over climate urgency. (Le Figaro)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Goal Standard. FIFA rakes in a record $9B from its expanded 2026 World Cup, proving that when it comes to football, profit always scores first. (Cnbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Stick Shift. The hits Canada with 50% tariffs on everyday goods, prompting Carney to announce a push for deeper trade talks before the duties bite. (Bbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Barrel Roll. Goldman Sachs signals Brent could hit $120 if Hormuz remains blocked, leaving traders spinning and consumers bracing for impact. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Silent Treatment. New Fed chair Kevin Warsh ditches forward guidance and vows to say less about interest rates, leaving markets to guess his next move. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Stall of Fame. After a record 2025, China’s car sales have nosedived 20% in the first half of 2026, forcing a grim full-year outlook. (Cnbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Egg Flation. Egg prices in China have jumped over 40 percent in a year, sending families and street vendors scrambling for cheaper breakfasts as inflation finally cracks the market. (New York Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ Talent Show. Singapore weighs new incentives for hedge funds, including tax breaks and easier hiring, in its ongoing quest for financial stardom. (Bloomberg)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Gift Wrapped. Reform UK MP Sarah Pochin brands the parliamentary probe into Nigel Farageโ€™s undeclared gifts a โ€œkangaroo court,โ€ insisting the system is rigged against her party. (The Guardian)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Pension Tension. The UK government admits outsourcing its civil service pension scheme to Capita ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง left retirees waiting up to a year for payments and facing hardship. (The Guardian)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Bot and Not. Despite rising adoption rates, UK companies are not deepening their AI usage, according to ONS figures that reveal limited transformative impact. (Financial Times)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Empire Underwriting. authorities have subpoenaed Mark Walterโ€™s Delaware Life and Clear Spring Life, questioning whether their private credit deals improperly favored his own network of companies within TWG Global. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Truth Reactor. Mark Angelo of Yorkville Advisors is steering Trump Media into a nuclear fusion deal, transforming Truth Social from hot takes to hot plasma in record time. (Wall Street Journal)

๐Ÿข Real Estate

  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Concrete Evidence. The European Commission accuses 10 construction chemical firms and 3 trade bodies of colluding to hike prices across France, Germany, and Spain after recent crises. (Wall Street Journal)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lone Star Server. BlackRock ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ fronts $12B to build massive data centers in Texas for Meta ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ, keeping most of the ownership for itself. (Wall Street Journal)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Bedtime Story. New UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham makes ending rough sleeping his first pledge, promising ยฃ340M for housing and support for thousands across England. (Bbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Liquid Assets. UK datacentre expansion for AI is hitting a wall as the water industry declares there simply is not enough water to keep servers cool. (The Guardian)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Home Alone. New York launches a new tax on luxury second homes worth $5M or more, targeting absentee owners to help fund public services. (New York Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tag Relief. Los Angelesโ€™ infamous $1.2B โ€œGraffiti Towersโ€ project has been cleared to exit bankruptcy, giving developers another shot at redemption. (Bloomberg)

๐Ÿ”— On-chain

  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Coin Toss. Speculators bet Coinbase ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ will miss Q2 trading volume expectations, with odds favoring a drop below $160B as bitcoin slumps drag activity down. (Cnbc)
  • ๐ŸŒ Fade to Noir. Aurora’s DeFi sector has lost 99% of its value since 2022, proving that even the brightest crypto lights can go dark in France. (Journalducoin)

๐Ÿ’ฑ Listed Markets

  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Fuel’s Gold. Ryanair shares fell 6% after rising fuel costs and lower fares linked to the Iran war slashed first-quarter profit by 34%, with CEO Michael O’Leary warning of a tough winter ahead for struggling airlines. (Cnbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Helios Rising. AMD launches its Helios AI rack to challenge Nvidia, with Microsoft joining Meta, OpenAI, and Oracle as early adopters of the new system. (Cnbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tech Wreck. Hedge funds dumped tech stocks at the fastest pace in over a decade, with Goldman Sachs reporting a 10% sector selloff in just two months. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Power Play. Wisconsinโ€™s Public Service Commission rejected Oracleโ€™s request to waive a $7B collateral demand for its new data centre, forcing the company to prove it can pay the bill before powering up for OpenAI. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Merger Cliffhanger. A California judge has hit pause on the $81B Paramount ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ and Warner Bros. Discovery ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ deal, citing antitrust objections from a dozen states. (Wall Street Journal)
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง United Kingdom
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Legal Tender. Linklaters partners collect a record ยฃ2.5M each after booming profits in Asia and the US, proving the law can be lucrative when the world is your client. (Financial Times)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Clock Market. The LSE plans to open a night-time exchange next year, matching crypto platforms with 24-hour trading to win over restless retail investors. (Financial Times)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Patriot Games. Lockheed Martin ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ unveils a new budget-friendly Patriot missile, promising to replenish shrinking global stockpiles at less than half the usual price. (Wall Street Journal)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Lease and Release. Cracker Barrel ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ lifts its guidance as it ditches Maple Street Biscuit Co. and pockets $77M from selling and leasing back 26 restaurants. (Wall Street Journal)

๐Ÿ›Ž๏ธ Big Deals (M&A)

  • Railpen ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง made a sweetened offer for IP Group ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง for $767M, a UK-listed early-stage science investor.
  • Anglo American ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง selects a group led by ex-De Beers CEO Gareth Penny as preferred bidder for its sale of diamond monopoly De Beers ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ. Botswana holds pre-emptive rights to acquire Anglo’s entire interest.
  • ZEISS ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช acquires Edy Optic LTT ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด. Approved by the competition authority, via Carl Zeiss Instruments SRL, distributor of ZEISS Vision Care, 2025 revenue ~9.4M EUR, optics/optometry/ophthalmology products and services, 45 employees.
  • Poste Italiane ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น acquires Telecom Italia ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น in a โ‚ฌ13B+ ($14.87B) bid to take full control.
  • Contents ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น acquires Balio ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ. Milan-based enterprise execution platform snaps up Barcelona-based corporate financial wellbeing specialist in its sixth buy-and-build deal.
  • Delen ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช acquires Van Lawick & Co. ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ. Part of Ackermans & van Haaren, it’s Delen’s eighth acquisition in the Netherlands in ten years.
  • Volenergy ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น acquires BP ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง’s Austrian petrol-station and EV charging business, including 250 branded retail sites (around 115 company-owned/franchise-operated). Sites to continue operating under the BP brand via a licensing agreement.
  • EQT ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช makes a $1.75B takeover offer for Perpetual ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ, which was rejected.
  • Eurofins ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡บ acquires Element Materials Technology ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง’s North American life sciences testing services for $400M enterprise value, covering 27 labs
  • Prologis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ bids ยฃ13.5bn (993p/share; ~20% cash, mostly shares) for Segro ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง, with the FTSE 100 target rejecting the third offer.
  • Tempus ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ to buy Personalis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ for $1.7B, a cancer-tech firm.
  • ACI Worldwide ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ explores sale of billing division ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ at a $1.5B valuation, generated $818M revenue and $141M adjusted EBITDA in 2025. In talks with bankers and potential private equity buyers.
  • Netflix ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ kauft InterPositive ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ fรผr $587M, ein KI-Startup von Ben Affleck. Gesamtes Team wechselt zu Netflix und Affleck wird Senior Advisor, Technologie fรผr Postproduktion und Nachbearbeitung.
  • Blackstone ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ invests in Futronic ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท, a supplier of high-precision actuators for automotive and industrial robotics, valuing the firm at about 1 trillion won ($676.04M). Founder Jinโ€‘ho Ko to remain chairman and CEO.
  • General Atlantic ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ and Howden Group ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง in talks to raise several $B at a $67B valuation as it prepares for an eventual IPO.
  • Advent ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ and Stripe ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ offer $53B leveraged buyout for PayPal ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ. PayPal rejects the bid as inadequate.
  • TPG ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ’s $2.8B acquisition of Greencross Pet ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ collapses after Coles ends talks.
  • ACI Worldwide ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ explores a $1.5B sale of its billing division ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
  • ConocoPhillips ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ acquires BP Energy Company of Kirkuk ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ, agreeing to buy a 42% stake from BP ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง.
  • Molex ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ agrees to an up to $6.29B, 10-year data-center optical-fiber supply deal with Prysmian ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น. Prysmian eyes U.S. fiber capacity expansion and a potential listing.
  • KKR ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ among final contenders to buy DStelecom ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น.
  • Brookfield Asset Management ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ acquire LXP Industrial Trust ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ for $5.2B in an all-cash deal that will take the REIT private.
  • Grupo Carso ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ acquires a 30% stake in a Gulf of America offshore field from TotalEnergies ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท
  • Panama ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ buys the remaining 41% private stake in strategic oil terminal Petroterminal de Panama ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ.
  • FountainVest ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ is said to consider selling Rokin ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ, a logistics firm.
  • Mitsubishi Electric ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต eyes merger with Rohm ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต and Toshiba ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต to combine their power semiconductor operations, aiming to announce a joint venture by September.
  • Samsung Biologics ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท acquires Polypeptide ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ for CHF1.5B (CHF44.31/share). Board supports the offer, major shareholder Draupnir to sell ~56%.
  • Hong Kong Applied Science and Technology Research Institute (ASTRI) ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ merges with Nano and Advanced Materials Institute (NAMI) ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ in April 2026, producing hybrid AI + advanced materials technologies for robotics, sensing and cybersecurity showcased at LEAP East.
  • ThaiBev ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ is considering a sale of KFC Thailand ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ญ.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • Truelink Capital ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ acquires Lyons Magnus ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ from Paine Schwartz Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ, deal closed July 20, 2026. Terms not disclosed (foodservice ingredients, beverage and healthcare nutrition manufacturer with revenue near $1B).
  • Mavis Tire Express Services ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ acquires Pep Boys ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ for $700M from Icahn Enterprises ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ.

๐Ÿงณ Private Markets & VC

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Prime Materials. CuspAI, backed by Jeff Bezos and now teamed with Nvidia, aims to use artificial intelligence to revolutionize semiconductor materials, collecting $450M in fresh funding. (Cnbc)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Toy Story. The has fined AliExpress ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ โ‚ฌ550M for letting illegal and dangerous goods flood its marketplace, including counterfeit clothes and hazardous toys. The platform now has three months to fix its act or face more penalties. (Le Figaro)
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Jurassic Markup. Colossal Biosciences is reportedly seeking new funding at a $20Bโ€“$30B valuation, doubling down on its quest to resurrect extinct species and investors’ imaginations. (TechCrunch)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Peso Power. Mexico now leads Latin America in venture funding, with $944M raised in Q2 as global investors shift their focus from Brazil to Mexico City. (Crunchbase)
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Great Wall of Code. Moonshotโ€™s Kimi 3 debuts with 2.8T parameters and open access, putting US giants like Anthropic and OpenAI on notice as Nasdaq stumbles. (Le Monde)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Bond Voyage. Japanese insurers snapped up the largest amount of super-long government bonds in three years this June, signaling renewed appetite for duration risk. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Loan Star. Shapoorji Pallonji lands a record-breaking private credit deal, proving there is always room for a bigger balance sheet India. (Bloomberg)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Licence to Bill. Revolut ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง secures a full Australian banking licence and pledges A$400M to challenge the Big Four, betting digital can finally break their grip. (Financial Times)

Fundraising

  • Etched ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI chip): $20B (Jane Street)
  • DeepSeek ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ (AI): $7.4B
  • Databricks ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Data intelligence): $3B (Coatue)
  • CuspAI ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Materials): $450M (Kleiner Perkins, NEA, Bezos Expeditions, Glade Brook Capital Partners, Lux Capital, AMD Ventures, Sovereign AI Venture Fund, Invest-NL, John Doerr, Lightspeed Venture Partners, Northzone, Temasek)
  • Sereact ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช (Robotics): $116M (Headline, Bullhound Capital, Daphni, Felix Capital, Air Street Capital, Creandum, Point Nine, Zalando)
  • Lumin Digital ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Fintech): $115M (clients, Light Street Capital)
  • Lyzr AI (AI): $100M
  • Poolhouse ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Sports): $55M (Bluestone Equity Partners, DMG Ventures, Bolt Ventures, Active Partners, Sharp Alpha, Emerging Fund)
  • Subra ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ (Energy): โ‚ฌ50M (Bayern Kapital, Novo Holdings, Maj Invest, SPRIND)
  • RapidPulse ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Healthcare): $48M (Medtronic, TechWald Next S.p.A., S3 Ventures, SBI Investment Company Ltd., Florida Opportunity Fund, Santรฉ Ventures, Syntheon, Hatteras Venture Partners, Epidarex Capital)
  • Raghu Vamsi Aerospace Group ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Aerospace): $40M (Norwest, Skegen Asset Management, Indus Bridge Ventures, GJNX Ventures, Ashish Kacholia)
  • Natural ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Fintech): $30M (Forerunner, Human Capital, Abstract, Bridge, Brex, Mercury, Privy, Vercel, Notion, Increase, Unit, Figure)
  • Feathery ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Fintech): $30M (Portage Ventures, Index Ventures, Allstate Strategic Ventures, Clocktower Ventures, Erie Strategic Ventures, Bain Capital Ventures)
  • Twenty ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Cybersecurity): $30M (Khosla Ventures)
  • Thira ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Enterprise AI): $21M (Madrona, FUSE)
  • Infinity ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (AI infrastructure): $15M (Touring Capital, Principal VC, researchers from OpenAI, Anthropic)
  • Cytronic (E-commerce): $13.5M (Slow Ventures)
  • Reo.Dev ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (SaaS): $11.3M (Elevation Capital)
  • Rege Nephro ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต (Biotech): $10.6M (Arcus South East Asia, BA7 Venture Capital CORP, Chushin Venture)
  • Beyond Reach Labs (Aerospace): $10M (Interlagos, Y Combinator, and others)
  • SwarmBase (AI): $7M (Castrum Capital, M2M Capital)
  • Hyperion Robotics ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ (Robotics): โ‚ฌ6.4M
  • Apaluma ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (GovTech): $5.55M (Crosslink Capital, Kickstart, Haven Ventures, Overwater Ventures, Orange DAO, NM Vintage Fund)
  • Xentra ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง (Cybersecurity): ยฃ2.7m
  • goNEON Agentic Systems ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ (Infrastructure): โ‚ฌ160K (Venture Kick)
  • ART Technologies ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ (Foodtech): โ‚ฌ200,000 (REDIT Ventures, Club de Inversiรณn de REDIT)

Fund Watch

  • Coatue ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $8B (retail-only fund, raised in one year)
  • Silver Hill Energy Partners ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $1.277B (Silver Hill V, 5th fund. Private energy PE focused on U.S. shale oil & gas)
  • JPMorgan ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: $500M (private credit, committed by Florida pension fund)
  • Lakestar ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ: $300M (debut ยซย Resilienceย ยป fund, secure European tech sovereignty)
  • Gestiรณn de Capital Riesgo del Paรญs Vasco (Grupo SPRI) ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ: โ‚ฌ50M (EZTEN II, fondo de capital riesgo para inversiones transformacionales)
  • EHE Ventures ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: ยฃ1.5M (SEIS AI Growth Fund, seed AI-first fund, ยฃ15M target)
  • EDF Small Business ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: ยฃ25K (sustainability grant programme. Five ยฃ5,000 grants, with Enterprise Nation & Square)

๐Ÿ””IPO

  • Kaufman and Broad ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท (Real estate): launching a 12-month buyback to repurchase up to 8.81% of its share capital, shares trading at โ‚ฌ25.85.
  • BASF ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช (Chemicals): invited banks to pitch on a German IPO of its agri-chemical division that could fetch a $23B valuation.
  • GameStop ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Retail): built a 10% stake in $50B-listed eBay.
  • Latigo Biotherapeutics ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Biotech): filed for a IPO. Blue Owl-backed developer of non-opioid pain therapies.
  • Scribe Therapeutics ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Biotech): seeking $107.2M in an IPO backed by Eli Lilly.
  • Reformation ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ (Apparel): seeking to raise $239M in a IPO.
  • Cadillac Mines Corp. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (Gold mining): seeking to raise C$363M (about $258M) in a Canada IPO, with C$190M from the offering and C$173M from selling shareholders.
  • Moonshot AI ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ (AI): preparing a Hong Kong IPO by year-end after wrapping a funding round at a $30B valuation.
  • Eoptolink Technology ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Optoelectronics): filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO targeting $4B-$5B.
  • JERA ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต (Energy): studying a US listing.
  • AS Watson ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐ (Retail): considering delaying a $2B dual London and Hong Kong IPO.
  • Manipal Health ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Healthcare): seeking a lower $8.3B valuation its planned India IPO, backed by TPG and Temasek.
  • Zepto ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Rapid commerce): seeking to raise $850M at a $3.5Bโ€“$4.5B valuation.
  • NLC India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Renewables): hired banks for an IPO of its renewables unit, size undisclosed.
  • SBI Funds ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ (Asset management): set to debut India after a $1B IPO.
  • Dangote ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฌ (Energy): raised $2.5B in a private placement at a $40B valuation ahead of what could be Africa’s largest IPO.

๐Ÿงณ Debt

  • Deutsche Bank ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช: preparing to sell $3B in leveraged loans for Baker Tilly to refinance private credit.
  • Nebius ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ: raised $775M in its first ABF deal.
  • Serentica ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: eyes a $450M loan to fund its renewables push.
  • CoreWeave ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: seeking $2.6B in leveraged loans backed by its Anthropic and Jane Street deals.
  • Netflix ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: selling $1B of 2036 notes, initially at 0.95 percentage point over Treasuries.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ United States
  • Exus Renewables North America ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: closed $356M in construction financing for two Pennsylvania wind projects.
  • Anchor Loans ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: closed $132M in construction financing for a 440-unit Durham multifamily community.

โŒ Failures

  • Aston Martin ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง: in talks for potential funding to boost liquidity.
  • Playmobil ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช: closed the Dietenhofen plant, cutting 350 jobs and summarily dismissing works council chair Michael Ulbrich.
  • Zalando ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช: plans to cut around 200 jobs in Berlin (after 450 cuts last year) and is closing Erfurt, affecting about 2,700 employees.
  • Foundever Group ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: agreed to give up 35% equity to creditors in exchange for debt haircuts and a $250M cash paydown.
  • Alkegen ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ: plans a prepackaged bankruptcy to secure fresh financing.

๐ŸŽฏ For a Few More Minutesโ€ฆ

  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Order Up. Meal delivery driver Wang Jibing has served up a surprise by winning Chinaโ€™s most prestigious literary award for his poetry about working life. The menu now includes critical acclaim. (Le Figaro)
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Four of a Kind. Jenitar Na’amoana gave birth to naturally conceived, identical quadruplet girls in Brisbane, defying odds of 1 in 15 million and stunning her doctors. (Bbc)
  • ๐ŸŒ Odor of Authority. Researchers find that naked mole-rat queens emit a molecule that blocks other females from reproducing, proving monarchy can really stink. (Libรฉ)

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