🤝 Hold My Hand
The jump’s still pending, but the photo op’s done.
Good morning!
The EU's finance ministers have agreed to give the bloc a single supervisor for its capital markets. There is one condition: it must keep its hands off the Frankfurt stock exchange. Germany was happy to send everyone else's trading venues to ESMA, the EU securities watchdog based in Paris, provided its own stayed home. The main equity market of Europe's largest economy will go on being policed by the state of Hesse, through a regional ministry whose title also covers energy, transport, housing and rural areas. In New York, a trading floor answers to the SEC. Its German cousin reports to the department for villages.
Berlin calls this "not a carve-out", since the exchange's parent does hand its clearing and settlement arms to ESMA. The text merely sets volume thresholds and a test of how far a venue reaches beyond its borders, cut so precisely that one very large customer falls just outside. Good tailoring attracts clients: three more operators slipped out through the same seam, one of them owned by that same customer. Of 9 clearing houses due to change supervisor, 6 will. Of some 360 crypto firms, between 10 and 15. The smaller states won more say for national supervisors inside ESMA. Chairing the talks was Ireland, which spent years resisting the plan, fearing its fund industry would decamp to Paris. Its finance minister urged colleagues to "hold hands and jump together". The hands were held. The jump is pending.
Supervision is the last lever a government holds over its financial centre: the fees, the jobs, the official who picks up the phone. Nobody trades that for a slogan, and calling the ministers cowards is too easy. The ECB began just as timidly in 2014, taking only the biggest banks, and the arrangement has held. A partial watchdog that exists is worth more than a flawless one in a slide deck. The European Commission, which drew up the flawless one, "deeply regrets" the result. The ECB's president, who usually lets her deputy do the talking at these meetings, asked for the floor to say she shared the concern.
The capital markets union was launched in 2015 and has since been renamed once without being finished. EU households keep about €10T in bank deposits. Some €300B of their savings leaves each year, mostly for the market the SEC has watched since 1934. A founder choosing where to list finds one referee in New York. The EU fields 27 and has just promoted a 28th. Every minister went home having defended something real, an exchange here, a fund industry there. Added together, those defences make a continent that finances other people's futures. Nobody in that room was sent there to do the sum.
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🗞️ Top Story
- 🇬🇧 Vote of No Confidence. UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham confirms for the first time that Russia interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum, warning similar meddling is targeting France and Germany. (BBC)
- 🇫🇷 Force of Habit. France’s “police of the police” racks up 24 new inquiries into officers’ actions at student protests, while officials insist no special restraint is needed. (France Info)
- 🇪🇸 Right on Cue. New polls show the center-right Popular Party and far-right Vox on track for a parliamentary majority in Spain’s November elections, leaving Pedro Sanchez’s leftist coalition trailing. (Boursier)
- 🇵🇱 State of Alarm. Polish officials gather at the anti-terror center following warnings of possible assassination attempts on top leaders, though no concrete information has been disclosed. (France Info)
- 🇪🇺 Heat of the Moment. The climate service Copernicus reports September was the second-hottest on record globally, with Western Europe tying its warmest September ever and rivers running at historic lows. (Die Zeit)
- 🇺🇦 Freeze Frame. Zelensky proposes a reciprocal pause in energy attacks, telling Moscow to stop its strikes if it wants Kyiv to do the same, with concrete guarantees required. (Boursier)
- 🇺🇸 Ship Happens. The Pentagon hit a commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman for defying its blockade, sending a message as Iran and the trade maritime warnings. (Financial Times)
- 🇰🇵 No Escape Clause. North Korea launched several ballistic missiles, declaring their new weapons cannot be dodged, as regional tensions keep climbing despite Seoul's attempts at diplomacy. (Le Parisien)
- 🇳🇵 Current Affairs. Flash floods triggered by a landslide in central Nepal have swept away homes, bridges, and a hydropower camp, leaving five people missing and dozens rescued. (BBC)
- 🇸🇦 Terminal Velocity. At least 12 people were killed and 309 injured after a missile strike hit Riyadh airport, with Saudi officials blaming Yemen’s Houthi forces and scrambling to manage the fallout. (Le Figaro)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Counting Sheep. The IFS accuses Chancellor Healey of dreaming if he thinks he can balance the Budget without confronting the inflation spike triggered by war in Iran. (BBC)
- 🇬🇧 Power to the Fewer. After a bitter row over a Zionism motion, Green party leader Zack Polanski calls for less member rule and more leadership authority to steer policy. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Risk Management. After the RAF Fairford incident, UK officials debate whether to publicly warn that Iran is now eyeing US military targets in Britain. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Unsafe States. Political violence is no longer a distant fear for many Americans, with threats and attacks now shaping public life and private anxiety. (New York Times)
- 🇺🇸 Business as Usual. Department of Homeland Security's Mullin confirms ICE will not suspend operations in New York following the recent Bronx shooting incident. (CNBC)
- 🇺🇸 Family Values. The Harp family fractured over politics and faith as Natalie Harp, now a Trump aide, became the lightning rod for deep personal and ideological divides. (Washington Post)
🏛️ Economy
- 🇩🇪 Going Concerned. Germany saw over 15,000 company insolvencies in the first seven months of 2023, with July marking the highest level in 13 years and transport firms hit hardest. (Die Zeit)
- 🇮🇹 Rate Race. Goldman Sachs warns that Italy could face the same bond market jitters as France, as Rome's widening deficit puts investors on edge. (CNBC)
- 🇳🇴 Oil’s Well. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has hit €2T in assets, letting the government tap €54B for welfare spending and making neighbors green with envy. (Le Monde)
- 🇺🇸 Bond Voyage. Despite higher yields, SpaceX and Broadcom 🇺🇸 are gearing up for massive debt issuances to bankroll their AI ambitions, proving tech's appetite for leverage is far from sated. (Bloomberg)
- 🇯🇵 Hack to the Future. Facing a wave of cyber attacks on everything from karaoke chains to hospitals, Japan’s government has called a state of emergency in cyberspace and scrambled to tighten digital ID rules. (Financial Times)
- 🇹🇼 Peace Dividend. President Lai announces Taiwan will boost military spending to over 3% of GDP, arguing that deterrence is the only way to keep Beijing at bay. (Le Figaro)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- 🇬🇧 Switching Off the Empire. The Alan Turing Institute's George Williamson warns that the UK risks losing control if it relies on foreign AI, calling for homegrown alternatives before someone else pulls the plug. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Rate Expectations. National Savings & Investments lifts its interest rates above 5% for the first time in nearly three years, but experts warn the party may not last. (The Guardian)
- 🇬🇧 Free Agents. UK ministers move to outlaw non-compete agreements, aiming to unleash growth by letting researchers and founders change employers more easily. (Sifted)
- 🇪🇺 Tick T+1. Banks across the and UK face a one-year countdown to implement T+1 settlement, forcing a scramble for automation and compliance. (FinExtra)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇺🇸 Back to the Shop Floor. Gig workers for Uber and Lyft are joining traditional unions as rising costs and shrinking paychecks make nostalgia for old-school organizing suddenly practical. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇺🇸 Motor Skills. Ford, JPMorgan Chase and Michigan launch a $1B push to revive manufacturing by linking startups with funding, customers and state support. (Bloomberg)
- 🇺🇸 Feeling Blue. consumer sentiment took another hit in October, with the Michigan survey showing a sharper decline than Wall Street forecasts. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇨🇦 Hiring Freeze. Statistics Canada reports a loss of 68,300 jobs in September, marking two consecutive months of declines and a clear reversal from earlier employment gains. (Wall Street Journal)
🏢 Real Estate
- 🇷🇺 Offline Mode. Yandex halted operations at a key data centre near Moscow after a Ukrainian drone attack, the third such strike to hit the company in a week. (BBC)
- 🇺🇸 Build Bridges. Zohran Mamdani, the left’s rising star, shocks supporters by collaborating with Donald Trump on housing policy while keeping his popularity intact. (Spiegel)
💱 Listed Markets
- 🇫🇷 Ground Control. Groupe ADP, owner of Charles de Gaulle, continues to earn from sanctioned Russian and Iranian carriers via its Turkish operations, proving that compliance is often a matter of geography. (Financial Times)
- 🇩🇪 Pit Stop. Porsche's global deliveries slid to 178,532 vehicles, a 16% drop from last year, as the company faces a cooling Chinese market and model changes. (Wall Street Journal)
- 🇮🇹 Hostile Environment. With Intesa Sanpaolo 🇮🇹 raising its bid, Monte dei Paschi di Siena 🇮🇹 convenes directors for a Monday showdown over its merger future, where the only certainty is more intrigue. (Bloomberg)
- 🇪🇺 Name Drop. Tesla is dropping the "Full Self-Driving" label in Europe, relaunching the feature as "Assisted Driving" following regulatory pressure from Germany. (CNBC)
- 🌍 Driven Out. Uber 🇺🇸 abruptly halts operations across Nigeria, leaving drivers and riders stranded as cost-cutting trumps comfort and safety in Africa's biggest market. (Bloomberg)
- 🇨🇳 Watts Next. BYD has become the world's number one electric car company, outselling Tesla by a wide margin and setting the pace for the industry. (France Info)
- 🇮🇳 Stronger Together. The rupee posted its largest gain half a year as the RBI stepped with rate hikes and liquidity moves to steady the currency. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 United States
- 🇨🇦 Drive North. Geely, one of China's largest automakers, will enter the Canadian market in 2027 while the US moves to block Chinese car imports. (Wall Street Journal)
🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)
- Schneider Electric 🇫🇷 has announced the acquisition of PTC 🇺🇸 for €20.2B, with completion expected by Q3 2027.
- Porsche 🇩🇪 raised its stake in Manthey Racing 🇩🇪 to 67%.
- Rheinmetall 🇩🇪 has acquired Damen Shipyards Mangalia 🇷🇴 for €138M excluding VAT.
- Generali 🇮🇹 is preparing a takeover bid for listed private bank Banca Generali 🇮🇹, valued at $8.5B.
- Caltagirone 🇮🇹 rejected Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena 🇮🇹's bid for Banco BPM 🇮🇹 and Banca Generali 🇮🇹, involving a $25B-listed peer.
- Trevi Finanziaria Industriale 🇮🇹 may reject Webuild 🇮🇹’s improved $370M cash takeover offer as undervalued.
- Blaumar Capital 🇪🇸 and Inveready 🇪🇸 have acquired a majority stake in BK Professional Components Holding 🇪🇸, the parent company of Blinker 🇪🇸.
- Kollarna 🇸🇪 was sold. Tech entrepreneur Matilda Lundblad now takes over a SEK 1B+ group.
- Management led by CEO Moussa Diao and trading manager Herve Bouvet has acquired Africa-focused trader Oryx Energies 🇨🇭 for $1B in a management buyout.
- The Friedkin Group 🇺🇸 is considering selling a controlling interest in Everton FC 🇬🇧.
- Cloudflare 🇺🇸 announces the acquisition of Deno 🇺🇸, the startup behind the Deno programming runtime.
- Nvidia 🇺🇸 is in early talks to acquire or deepen its investment in Reflection AI 🇺🇸, which was valued at $25B in March. An acqui-hire, further equity investment or technology partnership is under discussion.
- Starbucks 🇺🇸 is exploring a takeover bid for Chipotle 🇺🇸, valued at $40B.
- Carlyle 🇺🇸's deal to acquire Lukoil 🇷🇺's $10B portfolio of international assets expired.
- Coca-Cola 🇺🇸 seeks to unwind its $5B acquisition of Costa Coffee 🇬🇧 after a failed sale process.
- Crescent Energy 🇺🇸 acquires Devon Energy 🇺🇸's Texas drilling portfolio for $4.2B.
- Chevron 🇺🇸 will divest its stakes in Hess Midstream 🇺🇸 and its DJ Basin crude oil midstream assets as part of a restructuring, taking a $3B-$4B hit.
- Elliott 🇺🇸 and Siris 🇺🇸 are exploring a $2B sale of infrastructure software provider Gigamon 🇺🇸.
- Viatris 🇺🇸 will acquire Pacira BioSciences 🇺🇸 for $1.65B in cash, a 45% premium.
- SpaceX 🇺🇸 will acquire 100% of Grain Management 🇺🇸’s nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio.
- Amazon 🇺🇸 is in talks to acquire AI startup Decart 🇺🇸 for around $7B.
- RBC Global Asset Management 🇨🇦 will vote against H&R REIT 🇨🇦's $4.8B breakup and sale.
- SBI Group 🇯🇵 is preparing a digital asset joint venture with Mesh Connect 🇺🇸 and Money Forward 🇯🇵 in Japan.
- Gold Fields 🇿🇦 will acquire BHP 🇦🇺's Kambalda Nickel Concentrator and related rights in Western Australia.
🇺🇸 United States
- Hexagon 🇸🇪 has agreed to acquire geotechnical and engineering analysis software provider Rocscience 🇨🇦 from TA Associates and its founders and management for $535M.
- Evernorth Holdings 🇺🇸 completes its business combination with Armada Acquisition Corp. II 🇺🇸, raising $300M in gross proceeds and listing on Nasdaq.
- North Branch Capital 🇺🇸 invests in Callaway Industrial Services 🇺🇸, a provider of industrial and commercial plant maintenance services. The transaction closed on August 14, 2026.
🧳 Private Markets & VC
- 🇬🇧 Audit and Glory. Manchester City is accused of inflating its finances by £900M over nine years, putting BDO's audit work and the UK's football oversight regime under harsh scrutiny. (Financial Times)
- 🇪🇺 Exit Strategy. Two cofounders of Project Europe, the VC fund launched by Harry Stebbings, are stepping down as the firm prepares for its next phase. (Sifted)
- 🇪🇺 Open Season. Christian Kroll clarifies Ecosia’s move away from Mistral is driven by a preference for open, affordable AI, not concerns over China. (EU-Startups)
- 🇺🇸 Enron Encore. Jefferies says it found fraud in $900M of deals with Radiant World and Sapphire Minmetals, echoing scandals the industry hoped were history. (Bloomberg)
- 🇨🇳 Click to Clean. Western giant Reckitt 🇬🇧 is cashing in as Chinese shoppers buy cleaning staples like Lysol via social commerce instead of grocery aisles. (Wall Street Journal)
Fundraising
- Ramp 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $1.85B (Dragoneer Investment Group, Thrive Capital, Founders Fund)
- SWI Group 🇸🇬 (AI infrastructure): €800M
- TypeSafe AI 🇺🇸 (AI): $870M (Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, strategic angel investors)
- Manus 🇨🇳 (AI): $500M (Boyu Capital, IDG Capital)
- Oratomic (Quantum computing): $475M (ARCH Venture Partners, Spark Capital, Khosla Ventures, Index Ventures, General Catalyst, Bezos Expeditions)
- Oxide Computer Company 🇺🇸 (Cloud computing): $445M (Eclipse, US Innovative Technology Fund, Riot Ventures, Jane Street, Atreides Management, AMD Ventures)
- Atomic Machines 🇺🇸 (Manufacturing): $250M (One Investment Management, Gigafund, XTX Ventures, Valor Equity Partners, University of California)
- Voltus 🇺🇸 (Energy): $225M (Generation Investment Management)
- Arena 🇺🇸 (AI): $200M (Lightspeed Venture Partners, Khosla Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, 01 Advisors, Dell Technologies Capital, Endeavor Catalyst, a16z, Felicis, AMP PBC, QuantumLight, The House Fund)
- VEIR 🇺🇸 (Energy): $110M (Matter Venture Partners, Tyche Partners)
- Sabi 🇺🇸 (AI): $50M (Khosla Ventures, Accel, Initialized Capital, Kevin Weil, DST Global, Collaborative Fund, Ascend)
- Gallatin AI 🇺🇸 (Defense): $50M (8VC, Silent Ventures)
- Sava Technologies 🇬🇧 (Healthcare): $36M (Ascensia Diabetes Care, Balderton Capital, Pentland Ventures, Norrsken VC, Simplyhealth Ventures, JamJar Investments)
- Vates 🇫🇷 (Software): €30M
- Fortastra 🇺🇸 (Aerospace): $30M (First In)
- Catalyst (AI): $30M (Sequoia)
- Rein Security (Cybersecurity): $25M (Glilot Capital, Sienna Venture Capital)
- Kapta Space 🇺🇸 (Space): $24M (Washington Harbour Partners, Bison Ventures, MetaVC, MYDA Capital, Entrada Ventures, Aurelia Foundry, Fitz Gate Ventures)
- Modern Classrooms Project 🇺🇸 (Education): $12M (Skeebo Foundation)
- NETSEC 🇫🇷 (Cybersecurity): €8.9M
- Klarent 🇨🇭 (Cybersecurity): €7.13M (Mosaic Ventures, Moonfire Ventures, Jürgen Galler, Harris Barton, AngelInvest Ventures)
- Outro 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $7M (Listen Ventures, Cake Ventures, LAUNCH, Actions Capital, Hannah Grey VC, SemperVirens, Brock Recovery Group, Pave Health Ventures)
- GUDEA 🇺🇸 (AI): $7M (Mudita Ventures, Collide Capital)
- SpectaCell 🇧🇪 (Healthcare): €6M (imec.xpand, PMV’s Flanders Future Tech Fund, InnovationQuarter Capital, Qbic, VIB)
- VERSO 🇫🇷 (Consumer research): €5.4M
- Besso 🇨🇭 (AI): €4.29M
- Peppermint 🇺🇸 (AI): $4.7M (Moxxie, Homebrew, Better Tomorrow Ventures, Layout Ventures, Digital Health Venture Partners, Night Capital, Benjamin Mann, Evan Moore)
- NeoFleet Capital 🇨🇾 (Mobility): €3.5M (Mark Loughran, private investors)
- OllyGarden (Observability): $4M (Next Frontier Capital, Grand Ventures, ACTAI Ventures, DIG Ventures, Datadog, Grafana Labs, Dash0)
- Autentic AI 🇪🇸 (AI): €1.5M (Baobab Ventures, Lanai Ventures, Acurio Ventures, Masia VC)
- egaranti 🇹🇷 (Warranty technology): $1.1M (Aloqa Ventures, Techpoint, Hedef Holding)
Fund Watch
- Spectrum Equity 🇺🇸: $2.5B (Fund XI, oversubscribed growth equity fund, closed)
- Guggenheim Partners 🇺🇸: $2.4B (withdrawn from four largest mutual funds amid CEO investigation)
- Sheridan Capital Partners 🇺🇸: $1.35B (two new healthcare PE funds)
- Consonance Capital Partners 🇺🇸: $1.35B (Consonance Private Equity III, oversubscribed U.S. healthcare private equity fund)
- Aphias Capital 🇺🇸: $1.05B (inaugural private equity fund, closed oversubscribed)
- Blackstone 🇺🇸: $1B (private credit continuation vehicle for 2022-vintage assets, led by Allianz)
- Energy Capital Partners 🇺🇸: $834M (single-asset continuation vehicle for Next Wave Energy Partners)
- Sriram Krishnan 🇺🇸: $500M (new VC fund for growth-stage AI startups focused on national security, seeking to raise)
- Endeavor Catalyst 🇺🇸: $320M (Fund V, oversubscribed venture fund, deploying)
- Corre Partners 🇺🇸: $220M (3rd distressed credit fund, $650M target, raised to date)
- Vinci 🇵🇱: €114M (Vinci Space Tech Fund, new space technology fund)
- PSV Tech 🇩🇰: €56M (2nd tech fund, Nordic pre-seed investments, closed)
- Monte Carlo Capital 🇲🇨: €13M (Fund II, early-stage DeepTech, AI and SpaceTech, first close; €26M target)
- Encourage Capital 🇺🇸: raising a new India-focused private equity fund
🔔IPO
- Revolut 🇬🇧 (Banking): considering a future IPO, likely with a primary listing in the US.
- Belron 🇧🇪 (Automotive): has selected banks for a European IPO targeting a record $35B valuation.
- Solidigm 🇺🇸 (Semiconductors): selected banks for a IPO that could raise $10B at a $100B valuation.
- Iambic Therapeutics 🇺🇸 (Biotech): seeking to raise $160M in its IPO.
- Blue Origin 🇺🇸 (Aerospace): may pursue a Wall Street IPO in several years.
- Sanegene Bio 🇨🇳 (Biotech): confidentially filed for a Hong Kong IPO.
- SQ Advanced Interconnect 🇲🇾 (Semiconductors): considering raising $75M at a $300M valuation in a Malaysia IPO in Q1.
- Avaada Electro 🇮🇳 (Solar): plans to launch a $785M India IPO next month.
- Firmus 🇦🇺 (Data centers): shelved its record $5.5B Australian IPO due to low demand and is considering private funding.
- Banque du Caire 🇪🇬 (Banking): offering a 30% stake, comprising 4.575 billion shares, in an IPO.
🧳 Debt
- EDF 🇫🇷: secured €4B in bank loans maturing in 12-18 months.
- Waymo 🇺🇸: increased its debut debt raise to $5B.
- Aeropuerto de Cancún 🇲🇽: completed a $1.8B senior notes offering led by JPMorgan.
- Tencent 🇨🇳: considering another $5B offshore bond sale.
🇺🇸 United States
- CollPlant 🇮🇱: raised $3.7M in a private placement.
❌ Failures
- Volkswagen 🇩🇪: fined €1.2M ($1.3M) by BaFin for failing to promptly disclose its 2023 financial forecast.
- Liquid Swords 🇸🇪: the game studio is near bankruptcy after failing to pay employees for two months.
- Flock Safety 🇺🇸: the AI surveillance startup plans to cut about 270 jobs, or 18% of its workforce, amid growing backlash.
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
- Tamedia 🇨🇭: the media group is cutting 34 full-time jobs amid declining advertising revenue.
🎯 For a Few More Minutes…
- 🇬🇧 Tiger King. A man was killed after entering a tiger enclosure at Yorkshire Wildlife Park, prompting a police investigation and the zoo’s immediate closure. (Le Figaro)
- 🇬🇧 Star Power. The northern lights put on a rare show across the UK, lighting up skies as far south as Devon and Kent for delighted stargazers. (The Guardian)
- 🇫🇷 Guilt Trip. A Canadian, haunted by a decades-old art heist, ships two stolen statue fingers back to Château de Pierrefonds, complete with a rueful letter and a nod to poetic justice. (Le Parisien)
- 🇩🇰 Flat-Pack Shelter. IKEA 🇸🇪 says its Danish stores could double as emergency shelters or field hospitals during blackouts or disasters, turning meatballs and Allen keys into crisis response. (Boursier)
- 🇯🇵 Island in the Sun. The Kuril Islands, seized by the Soviet Union in 1945, are still at the center of a bitter territorial dispute between Russia and Japan. (Le Figaro)
