🥪 This Time It’s Different (Again)

That 'free lunch' looks suspiciously familiar.

22 mai 2026

Zuckerberg spent much of last year reassuring shareholders that Meta was « well-positioned » against macroeconomic turbulence. Translation: should the global economy combust, advertisers will keep emptying their budgets into Instagram. The pitch has a certain technocratic charm. Unlike the television spots of the 1980s, which depended on viewers not wandering off to the fridge during the break, digital advertising can stalk the consumer to his last click, charge only for actual conversions, and now, thanks to generative AI, produce creative assets for the price of a sandwich. Surgical. Measurable. Indispensable. The entire equity story of Big Tech rests on this single claim: digital advertising has graduated from cyclical expense to operating cost, somewhere between rent and electricity.

The claim has form, and not a happy one. In 2000, Sumner Redstone declared advertising was « no longer cyclical », brandishing MTV’s resilience through the previous downturn as proof. American ad spending then collapsed by 28% in constant dollars. Half a century earlier, local television was meant to vaccinate advertisers against recessions by letting them fine-tune campaigns market by market. The 1973 oil shock dispatched that theory with the subtlety of a baseball bat. Every new media technology arrives with the same prophet, the same prophecy, the same eventual humiliation. The faithful currently point to 2008 and 2020 as proof of digital’s invincibility. Both exhibits are tampered. In 2008, digital was a rounding error feasting on print and broadcast carcasses. In 2020, lockdowns turned the planet into compulsive scrollers with nothing else to spend on.

Digital now hoovers up 60% of global ad spend outside China, with Meta and Alphabet roughly 80% of a $700B feast. The offline larder is bare. Recent work out of Harvard and MIT finds American advertising has become more sensitive to the business cycle, not less, while Goldman Sachs notes the correlation between GDP growth and digital ad spend has tightened since 2020. Online advertising leans heavily on small and medium businesses, the first to slash budgets at the faintest chill. And programmatic auctions, sold as a triumph of efficiency, also mean any advertiser can liquidate his media plan during a coffee break. The flexibility that lured spending in will accelerate its exit.

Meta derives 98% of its revenue from advertisers, Alphabet around 75%. The next recession will not test whether digital advertising is cyclical, that question was settled in 2000 and merely forgotten. It will test whether two of the most valuable companies in history were built on durable infrastructure or on the conviction, renewed every fifteen years, that gravity has finally been repealed.

🥪 This Time It's Different (Again)

🗞️ Top Story

🇵🇱 Troop Scoop. Donald Trump announces he will send 5,000 extra US soldiers to Poland, citing his friendship with President Nawrocki and ignoring recent deployment confusion. (Spiegel)
🇪🇺 Halfway House. Berlin wants Ukraine closer to the with a special status: access to key meetings and benefits, but no voice on decisions just yet. (El Pais)
🇪🇺 Weather Wars. Following Spain’s 2024 floods, Russian and US actors flood social media with climate conspiracies, aiming to shake faith in European governments. (Le Monde)
🇺🇸 Late Exit. Stephen Colbert’s Late Show airs its final episode as CBS cites budget cuts, but many see politics behind the abrupt goodbye. (Libé)
🇬🇱 Cold Reception. Trump’s special envoy Jeff Landry landed in Nuuk uninvited, pushed US expansion dreams, and left early as protests greeted the new consulate. (El Pais)
🌍 Borderline Crisis. The WHO declares an international alert as Ebola cases jump to South Kivu, revealing both the virus’s reach and the struggle to enforce basic containment. (Le Temps)

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇬🇧 Royal Appointments. Newly released government memos reveal Queen Elizabeth was « very keen » for Prince Andrew to be named trade envoy, giving her blessing to his official comeback. (The Guardian)
🇬🇧 Mind the Gab. Rachel Reeves shut down a swearing Reform UK heckler during a live interview, earning surprise support from Conservative MPs who applauded her manners lesson. (The Guardian)
🇬🇧 Borderline Success. The UK’s net migration dropped nearly 50% to 171K in 2025, letting Keir Starmer’s Labour finally claim progress on a core campaign promise. (The Guardian)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Case Closed. A federal judge in Chicago threw out all charges against the Broadview Six anti-ICE protesters, citing serious prosecutor misconduct during grand jury proceedings. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Rich Talk. In a bid to cool backlash, Mayor Mamdani held his first face-to-face with JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon over his wealth tax proposal. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Immunity Idol. Todd Blanche’s new $1.8B “victim” fund sends taxpayer money to Trump supporters and, in a plot twist, shields Trump and his family from tax probes. (New York Times)

🏛️ Economy

🇬🇧 Track Record. The UK’s HS2 high-speed rail project faces yet another delay and a price tag blowing past £100B, turning a flagship into a fiasco. (Le Monde)
🇺🇸 Ctrl-Z. Donald Trump abruptly canceled the signing of a long-awaited executive order on AI oversight, citing concerns about stifling innovation and losing ground to China. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 Rate Expectations. Jamie Dimon warns that interest rates could climb far beyond current levels after the latest bond market selloff, putting investors on alert for more pain. (Bloomberg)
🇨🇺 Cash or Castro. Just after indicting Raul Castro, the US dangles $100M in aid to Cuba, insisting it bypasses the regime, while Havana stays vague. (France Info)
🌍 Current Affairs. Business activity in Europe and Asia slumps in May, as oil supply disruptions from the Middle East send global energy costs climbing. (Wall Street Journal)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Smoke Signals. Reynolds American quietly gave $5M to MAGA Inc. just before the Trump administration weighed a vaping crackdown, hoping the right message would rise. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Audit Immunity. The Trump family claims protection from IRS audits, putting the tax agency in a legal and political bind it cannot easily escape. (New York Times)

🏢 Real Estate

🇺🇸 Swap Wars. The CFTC claims exclusive control over prediction markets and has taken six states to court to prove it, escalating federal-state tensions. (Cnbc)
🇲🇦 Falling Standards. An apartment building collapsed in Fès, killing at least nine and injuring several more, as Moroccan authorities launch an investigation into yet another deadly structural failure. (Le Monde)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Fee’d Up. Homeowners Association fees in the have jumped 44% to $757, squeezing condo owners as insurance premiums and maintenance costs soar. (Cnbc)
🇮🇱 War Premium. The average 30-year mortgage in Israel now sits at 6.5 percent, with borrowers paying extra for every headline from the front. (New York Times)

🔗 On-chain

🇺🇸 Bit by Qubit. With quantum computing breakthroughs looming by 2030, the crypto industry rushes to redesign wallets and blockchains before hackers get a head start. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 Rocket Science. Binance, Bitget, and Trade.xyz launch SpaceX-linked perpetual futures, letting traders bet on Elon Musk’s valuation before the IPO exists, because who needs actual shares when you have pure speculation. (Financial Times)

💱 Listed Markets

🇬🇧 Khan You Feel It ? London mayor Sadiq Khan halts the Met Police’s £50M contract with Palantir 🇺🇸, citing a “serious breach” of procurement rules and blocking AI’s latest UK debut. (The Guardian)
🇫🇷 Guilt Trip. Airbus and Air France have been convicted of involuntary manslaughter in the 2009 Rio-Paris crash after an appeal, reversing their earlier acquittal and casting a long shadow over both giants. (Le Monde)
🇸🇪 Nordic Timeout. Nasdaq Nordics halted the Stockholm index briefly due to a fresh technical issue, making “please hold” the only active position. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 Watt a Partnership. Bloom Energy shares jumped 12% as Nebius 🇪🇺 agreed to pay up to $2.6B for its fuel-cell power in AI centers, pushing both companies to new highs. (Cnbc)
🇺🇸 Cash Flow Rider. Stellantis unveiled a $70B turnaround plan aiming for positive cash flow by 2028, promising investors a smoother drive after last year’s $24B loss. (Cnbc)
🇨🇳 Great Firewall of Silicon. Trump’s approval for Nvidia 🇺🇸 to export high-end AI chips to China fizzled out, as Beijing rejected the deal and bet on homegrown alternatives. (New York Times)
🇯🇵 Chip Happens. SoftBank Group enjoyed a two-day, 30% rally as Arm Holdings 🇬🇧 and OpenAI prospects sent its shares to the moon, one AI buzzword at a time. (Cnbc)
🇻🇳 Stock and Roll. After a 1,000% rally in VinFast shares, Pham Nhat Vuong can bankroll his electric car ambitions at high speed, no external approval required. (Bloomberg)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Big Loser. Patients in Eli Lilly‘s trial lost nearly a third of their body weight with retatrutide, a new weekly shot now racing toward FDA approval. (Cnbc)
🇺🇸 Stake Shift. The government is set to invest $2B in quantum companies and take equity stakes, with IBM grabbing the largest slice and a 6% stock bump. (Cnbc)

🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)

German Government 🇩🇪 is in talks to acquire a 40% stake in KNDS 🇩🇪, a Franco-German tank manufacturer, ahead of a planned IPO.
Germany 🇩🇪 seeks to acquire a 40% stake in KNDS 🇩🇪 ahead of its IPO, potentially valued at $25B.
Erich Schwaiger 🇩🇪’s $1B deal to acquire OpernTurm 🇩🇪 from JPMorgan Asset Management 🇺🇸 and GIC 🇸🇬 collapsed due to funding issues.
Intesa Sanpaolo 🇮🇹 is looking to acquire Singular Bank 🇪🇸 for potentially $350M.
Swiss Life 🇨🇭 acquires Telis 🇩🇪, enhancing its financial advisory leadership in Germany.
Estée Lauder 🇺🇸 ends merger talks with Puig 🇪🇸 for a deal valued at nearly $40B.
Kontoor Brands 🇺🇸 to sell its Lee denim and casual apparel business to Authentic Brands 🇺🇸 for up to $1B, with an initial payment of $750M.
Ingredion 🇺🇸 is pursuing a takeover of Tate & Lyle 🇬🇧, which reported a 5% fall in adjusted pretax profit to $319.7M for the fiscal year.
NextEra Energy 🇺🇸 acquires Caliber Resource Partners 🇺🇸 for $1.3B.
Providence Equity Partners 🇺🇸 is preparing to sell ATG Entertainment 🇬🇧 for $5.4B.
I Squared Capital 🇺🇸, Vale 🇧🇷, Gerdau 🇧🇷, and M Resources 🇦🇺 advance to the second bidding round for a $5B acquisition of the Brazil port from Trafigura 🇨🇭 and Mubadala Capital 🇦🇪.
Medtronic 🇺🇸 plans to acquire SPR Therapeutics 🇺🇸 for $650M cash.
Lupa Systems 🇺🇸 acquires Vox 🇺🇸’s podcast network, news network, and New York Magazine for $300M.
Gillon Capital 🇺🇸 is in talks to acquire a 55% stake in Sherritt International 🇨🇦 at a discount to its $65M market cap.
Lone Star 🇺🇸 weighs a sale of lender IKB 🇩🇪 after nearly 20 years.
IMAX 🇨🇦 is exploring a sale and has approached entertainment companies as potential buyers.
FountainVest 🇨🇳 is said to be considering the sale of Swiss micro-tools maker SPT 🇨🇭.
NIKKON Holdings 🇯🇵 is exploring going private, with potential bidders including Bain Capital 🇺🇸, Warburg Pincus 🇺🇸, and Blackstone 🇺🇸 in a deal valued at $4.6B.
Public Investment Corp. 🇿🇦 is in talks to acquire minority shareholders of Balwin Properties 🇿🇦 in an all-cash deal valued at $130M.

🧳 Private Markets & VC

🇺🇸 Launch Pause. SpaceX postponed the debut flight of its redesigned Starship rocket after last-minute technical issues forced engineers to halt the countdown in Texas. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Stake Shift. Washington is handing $2B to quantum-computing firms including IBM, but this time it wants shares, not just receipts. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Meta Morphosis. Manus Bio is reportedly seeking $1B to reverse Meta’s takeover, suggesting the buyout came with more baggage than expected. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 Launch Unlimited. SpaceX wants to ramp up to 10,000 launches per year within five years, but the FAA says reliability checks must take off first. (Boursier)
🇺🇸 Bank Shot. Elon Musk chose Goldman Sachs to lead SpaceX’s $75B IPO, handing them Wall Street’s most coveted banking commission as rivals watch from the launchpad. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 Star Billing. Elon Musk’s SpaceX has filed for a record-breaking IPO, with ambitions to raise $80B and dreams of a $1.5T–$2.2T valuation. Wall Street, meet Mars. (Le Figaro)
🇸🇦 Fore Sale. LIV Golf will pitch investors for up to $350M in fresh capital as it faces life without Saudi PIF’s billions after 2026. (Cnbc)

Fundraising

Kalshi 🇺🇸 (Finance): $1B
Hark 🇺🇸 (AI): $700M (Parkway Venture Capital, NVIDIA, Align Ventures, AMD Ventures, ARK Invest, Brookfield, Greycroft, Intel Capital, Prime Movers Lab, Qualcomm Ventures, Salesforce Ventures, Tamarack Global)
Wispr AI 🇺🇸 (AI): $260M
Exa Labs 🇺🇸 (AI): $250M (a16z)
Farther 🇺🇸 (Wealth Management): $150M
Nourish 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $100M (Menlo Ventures, Thrive Capital, Index Ventures, J.P. Morgan Growth Equity Partners, Maverick Ventures, Y Combinator, BoxGroup, Atomico, Daybreak, Operator Partners)
Primer 🇬🇧 (Fintech): $100M (Sofina, Peak XV Partners, Balderton, Accel, ICONIQ, Tencent, Speedinvest)
Convective Capital 🇺🇸 (Venture Capital): $85M
Socket 🇺🇸 (Cybersecurity): $60M
Variational 🇺🇸 (Trading): $50M
Quartermaster 🇺🇸 (Maritime): $43M (First Round Capital, Quiet Capital)
Cagent Vascular 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $41M (U.S. Venture Partners, Astoria Health Investors)
Pivot 🇫🇷 (Procurement): $40M (Forestay Capital, Notion Capital, Greyhound, Hedosophia, Visionaries Club, Emblem)
SignalPlus 🇭🇰 (Crypto): $40M
Catena Labs 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $30M (Acrew Capital, a16z crypto)
Sardine 🇨🇦 (Fintech): $25M
Otrera New Energy 🇫🇷 (Deeptech): €17M (EDF, Groupe ADF, Fonds Exergon, Ingerop, Fortil Group, Fonds Normandie Participations, Onet Technologies, Groupe REEL, Groupe SNEF)
The Path 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $14.3M (Prime Movers Lab, Apolo Anton Ohno, Deontay Wilder, Designer Fund)
Aboard 🇺🇸 (Mobility): $13M (Ondine Capital, Llama Ventures)
ETAboard 🇺🇸 (Mobility): $13M
NanoCo 🇺🇸 (Security): $12M
Tribal 🇺🇸 (AI): $10M
Checker 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $8M (Galaxy Ventures, Al Mada Ventures, Framework Ventures)
Quantum Bridge Technologies 🇺🇸 (Cybersecurity): $8M
Cycles 🇨🇦 (Fintech): $6.4M (Blockchange Ventures, Coinbase Ventures, Compound VC, Primitive Ventures)
Vêtir 🇺🇸 (Fashion): $5.5M (Laidlaw & Company)
CVRD Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $5M (Upfront Ventures, Waterline Ventures, Distributed Ventures)
ETCVRD Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $5M
Shatterdome Energy 🇺🇸 (Energy): $3.5M
Estelec Groupe 🇫🇷 (Electronics): €2.7M
Ellipse Bikes 🇫🇷 (Mobility): €1.5M (SideAngels, Bpifrance, Caisse d’Épargne)

Fund Watch

EQT 🇸🇪: €5B (managing EU’s ScaleUp Fund, targeting UK startups)
Blackstone 🇺🇸: $4B (acquired 33 PE LP stakes from CPPIB)
Swiss Federal Pension Fund 🇨🇭: $1.1B
BAI Capital 🇨🇳: $600M (1st close, new growth fund targeting $800M)
Earlybird 🇩🇪: €500M (new defence fund, joint venture with AVP)
Futurecorp Space Acquisition 1 🇺🇸: $200M
Private Corner 🇫🇷: €82M (secondary private equity program, closed)

🔔IPO

Oura Inc. 🇺🇸 (Wearables): filed confidentially for an IPO with a valuation of about $11B.
OpenAI 🇺🇸 (AI): set to file confidentially for an IPO, with a valuation of $850B.
GameStop 🇺🇸 (Retail): raised its stake in eBay from 5% to 6.6% and may pursue a hostile bid.
Lincoln International 🇺🇸 (Finance): gained 10% in its trading debut after raising $421M for a $2.3B valuation.
K25.ai 🇸🇬 (AI): secured a $100M valuation with a $2M initial investment from Nasdaq-listed NIVF, aiming for a public listing as a prediction market leader.
Aragen Life 🇮🇳 (Biotech): said to plan a $300M IPO India backed by Quadria.
Estithmar Holding 🇶🇦 (Conglomerate): hired Rothschild for a Qatar IPO of its healthcare unit Apex Health.

🧳 Debt

Renault 🇫🇷: plans to issue yen-denominated Samurai bonds as part of its financing strategy.
National Funding 🇺🇸: upsized its senior unsecured notes offering to $70M.
Perpetua Resources 🇺🇸: secured a $2.9B loan from EXIM for the Stibnite Gold Project.
HawkEye 360 🇺🇸: entered into a $125M revolving credit facility maturing in May 2031.
Bank of America 🇺🇸: in talks to sell $30B in investment grade bonds as part of a $50B financing effort for Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery.

❌ Failures

Morrisons 🇬🇧: the supermarket is shutting 100 lossmaking stores due to rising costs, with an annual loss of £318M reported.
Infowars 🇺🇸: a federal judge rejected Alex Jones’ bid to protect the platform from liquidation, ruling its assets aren’t shielded by his personal bankruptcy.

🎯 For a Few More Minutes…

🇫🇷 Selling Iron. Artcurial auctioned a piece of the Eiffel Tower’s spiral staircase for €450K, giving one collector a literal step into French history. (Le Parisien)
🇨🇾 Birds of a Feather. New archaeological findings in Cyprus show pigeons were already being domesticated by humans over 3,000 years ago, centuries earlier than believed. (Le Figaro)
🇺🇦 Nestflix. Two storks in a Ukrainian village have become national stars as thousands tune in 24/7 to livestream their every move, reality-TV style. (Le Monde)
🇺🇸 Liquid Assets. As fertilizer prices spike due to Middle East conflict, farmers are turning to human urine and other unconventional sources to feed their crops. (Bloomberg)
🇰🇷 Goal War. North Korea beat South Korea 1-0 in their first soccer match on southern soil in eight years, proving détente can wait for full-time. (Washington Post)