🪙 Take Your Change

Funny, it’s not worth what you thought.

13 avril 2026

The dollar’s 10% tumble through 2025, its worst annual performance since 2017, carries a whiff of poetic justice. For two decades, global investors piled into American assets with the fervour of pilgrims approaching a sacred shrine. The result: a net foreign investment position now sitting at -$26T, meaning the rest of the world owns $26T more in American stocks and bonds than Americans hold abroad. It is, by any measure, the largest inversion in financial history. And like all pilgrimages, this one turned out to be based on faith rather than fundamentals.

The arithmetic was brutal. An S&P 500 gain of 16% sounds magnificent until currency translation chews through it. A Swiss investor without hedges pocketed 4% in real terms. A German one fared marginally better thanks to the euro’s 14% surge, but the lesson is the same: American exceptionalism, at least in equity returns, proved a dollar-denominated illusion. European investors, suddenly aware they had been subsidising Cupertino’s buybacks with currency risk, quietly shifted capital homeward. European equity ETFs pulled a record $42B in net flows through mid-2025 alone, while inflows into US-focused funds halved year-on-year. By December, the rotation had a name, a narrative, and its own dedicated ETF range. The great capital migration eastward across the Atlantic had, it appeared, graduated from trend to thesis.

The explanation offered by strategists was that tech valuations strained credulity and Europe might, against all odds, rediscover growth. Perhaps. But the deeper current was simpler: when foreigners hold $66T in US liabilities, even a modest hedging impulse becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Morgan Stanley noted that barely half of European holdings were hedged; each new forward contract sold meant more dollars dumped on the market. The Fed, having cut rates repeatedly through the year, offered diminishing yield as a consolation prize. And Washington, with its $1.8T deficit, tariff tantrums, and recurring dramas over central bank independence, did little to inspire the confidence a debtor nation requires. That the world’s largest economy spent much of 2025 relitigating the independence of its own central bank is the kind of detail that tends to concentrate minds in Zurich and Frankfurt.

None of this means the dollar’s reserve status is in jeopardy. There is no yuan-denominated bond market deep enough to absorb even a fraction of global savings, and the Swiss franc is hardly a vehicle for $26T in liabilities. But the comforting assumption that American assets only go up, and the dollar only strengthens alongside them, belongs to a cycle that closed in January 2025. For a generation of portfolio managers raised on US outperformance, the adjustment will be slow, reluctant, and expensive. The pilgrimage is not over. It has simply stopped feeling sacred.

🪙 Take Your Change

🗞️ Top Story

🇮🇪 Pump Fiction. Petrol stations across Ireland are running out of fuel as demonstrators blockade refineries to protest soaring prices linked to the Iran conflict, while officials threaten army intervention. (Cnbc)
🇭🇺 Vote Potato. In Hungary’s rural villages, locals admit votes are bought for sacks of potatoes or cash as Orban’s grip faces its first real crack. (France Info)
🇭🇺 Hungary Games. Viktor Orban admits loss and hands the next round to Peter Magyar, whose victory marks a dramatic end to Orban’s nationalist era. (New York Times)
🇷🇺 Press Pause. Oleg Roldouguine, investigative journalist at Novaïa Gazeta , is detained for a month after police raided his home and newsroom. (Le Monde)
🇺🇸 Fight Night Diplomacy. As Iran peace talks broke down, President Trump chose a Miami UFC match over crisis briefings, offering thumbs-ups while negotiations flatlined. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 Red Lines, Dead Lines. JD Vance’s Iran negotiations went nowhere as Tehran rejected the US’s take-it-or-leave-it nuclear deal, pushing the crisis into overtime. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 Ship Happens. With nuclear talks collapsing, Trump has greenlit a naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil now waits for permission to move. (Le Figaro)
🇺🇸 Rematch Pending. Kamala Harris hints at a possible 2028 presidential campaign, less than two years after her defeat as the Democratic nominee to Donald Trump. (Spiegel)
🇺🇸 Firewall. A man attacked OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s home with a Molotov cocktail and threatened company headquarters, as AI fears ignite new extremes. (Die Zeit)
🇭🇹 Crowded Out. A deadly stampede at Haiti’s Citadelle Laferrière left 30 dead during traditional festivities, as a single entrance became a fatal bottleneck. (Le Monde)
🇨🇳 Family Feud. Xi Jinping told opposition leader Cheng Li-wun that China will never tolerate Taiwan’s independence, pressing for “reunification” no matter the audience. (Boursier)
🇵🇰 New Kid on the Bloc JD Vance makes his international debut managing Iran talks for Trump, juggling nuclear tensions and an economic choke point in Pakistan. (Le Figaro)
🇮🇷 Mine Over Matter. The US sent two warships through the Hormuz Strait to prepare for mine-clearing operations, despite Iran’s pledge to attack if they continued. (Spiegel)
🇮🇶 Kurd Your Enthusiasm. Nizar Amedi, a Kurd, is elected president of Iraq by parliament and must now nominate a prime minister under Iraq’s power-sharing rules. (Le Figaro)
🇧🇯 Stage Managed. Benin’s presidential election offers voters just two tickets after opposition parties were barred over technicalities, all under President Patrice Talon’s careful choreography. (Le Monde)
🇩🇯 Sixth Sense. Ismaïl Omar Guelleh wins a sixth term as Djibouti’s president with 97.8% of the vote, reminding everyone that suspense is not on the ballot. (Libé)

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇬🇧 Legal Briefs. Despite a high court ruling against its ban, Palestine Action triggered 523 arrests at its first major London protest. (The Guardian)
🇬🇧 Hole Lotta Love. Scientists warn that Britain’s surge in SUVs is making potholes worse, as heavier vehicles hasten the decay of already fragile roads. (The Guardian)
🇬🇧 Referendumb. Scottish First Minister John Swinney says a second independence referendum could happen by 2028 if the SNP secures a majority, though Westminster still holds the keys. (BBC)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Mail Storm. The U.S. Postal Service warns Congress it could run out of cash within a year, proposing stamp hikes and service cuts to avoid insolvency. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 Unfriend Request. Melania Trump declared she was never friends with Jeffrey Epstein and had no involvement with his crimes, raising questions about the timing of her announcement. (Spiegel)

🏛️ Economy

🇫🇷 Watt’s Up. France announces a major boost, nearly doubling public funding for the shift to electric power by 2030, in a bid to spark change. (Bloomberg)
🇪🇺 Rock, Paper, China. The and US are finalizing a critical minerals pact aimed at breaking China’s grip on key resources for batteries and clean tech. (Bloomberg)
🇬🇧 Rubber Stamp Act. Keir Starmer’s government proposes giving itself power to implement EU regulations through secondary legislation, leaving MPs with little say and sparking a Brexit backlash. (BBC)
🇺🇸 Pump Fiction. consumer prices rose 3.3% in March, with gas prices soaring 21% due to the Iran conflict, leaving the Fed’s inflation target further away. (Cnbc)
🇺🇸 Brits and Spurs. Texas launches a London outpost, offering tax breaks and incentives to tempt UK firms across the Atlantic and onto its turf. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 Feeling the Pinch. consumer sentiment just hit a record low, with inflation and the Iran conflict souring Americans’ economic outlook. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 Refund of the Jedi. Customs will launch its new tariff refund tool on April 20, promising importers a smoother process for claiming their money back. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 Price Tag. inflation jumped to 3.3% in March, its steepest rise since 2022, as Trump’s Iran policy sends Americans a costly energy bill. (Le Monde)
🌍 Looped In. As world finance leaders descend on the IMF summit, the agenda looks suspiciously familiar, with crises refusing to exit the stage. (Bloomberg)

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇬🇧 Caps for Guns. Conservatives vow to reinstate the two-child benefit cap and redirect the funds toward the UK’s largest peacetime defence build-up. (The Guardian)
🇬🇧 Bill Shock. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves promises new plans to help businesses facing surging energy bills, but insists government borrowing will not foot the tab. (Bloomberg)
🇬🇧 Tax and the City. Reform UK’s Richard Tice faces allegations his firm dodged about £120K in tax on dividend payments to himself and an offshore trust. (The Guardian)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Booked and Loaded. Tucker Carlson is launching a book imprint with Skyhorse Publishing, promising to publish titles that challenge mainstream media boundaries, one bestseller at a time. (Wall Street Journal)

🏢 Real Estate

🇨🇾 House of Cards. A two-story building collapsed in Limassol, Cyprus, killing at least two people and leaving others trapped, despite previous warnings about its safety. (Le Figaro)
🇺🇸 Floor Show. The White House ballroom renovations, championed by Trump, can proceed for now after a federal court pause is lifted, pending further review. (Le Monde)
🇺🇸 Gilt Complex. The president proposes a monumental arch covered in gold for Washington’s skyline, drawing criticism for overshadowing historic sites and existing symbols. (Libé)

🔗 On-chain

🇺🇸 Truth or Dare. The prediction market Polymarket lets users gamble on wars and world events, where payouts depend on how anonymous insiders rule on reality. (The Guardian)

💱 Listed Markets

🇳🇱 Crude Awakening. Vitol’s star trader Yaoyao Liu racked up losses in the hundreds of millions after wrong-way oil bets during the Iran conflict, making rivals wonder if the magic finally ran out. (Wall Street Journal)
🇬🇧 License to Spill. Aston Martin’s market value and bond prices plunge to all-time lows, as the iconic carmaker faces running out of cash by mid-year. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 Crude Awakening. Oil prices soared past $100 after US-Iran peace talks collapsed and Trump threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, rattling global markets yet again. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 War Games. Palantir gets military kudos from Trump but investors are not amused, sending the stock to its worst week since 2022. (Cnbc)
🇺🇸 ETF and Flow. BlackRock applies hedge fund methods to its exchange-traded funds, marketing them as the answer for investors desperate for real diversification. (Cnbc)
🇺🇸 Zuck Yourself. Meta is developing an AI version of Mark Zuckerberg to interact with employees, pitching it as a leap toward « personal superintelligence » at the office. (Financial Times)
🇮🇷 Margin of Terror Oil traders suffered outsized margin calls and cash crunches after betting on price drops, as the Iran war flipped the market script overnight. (Financial Times)

🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)

Europlasma 🇫🇷 to sell its defense activities for €150M, including development and production of munitions.
Imerys 🇫🇷 acquires Great Lakes Minerals 🇺🇸 for $80M in the refractories and abrasives sector.
JAB Holding Company 🇩🇪 books $6B from the sale of JDE Peet’s 🇳🇱 in 2025.
Poste Italiane 🇮🇹 defends its €10B bid for Telecom Italia 🇮🇹.
Heineken 🇳🇱 sells its stake in Bralima 🇨🇩 to ELNA Holdings 🇲🇺, ending its direct presence in the DRC.
Galp Energia 🇵🇹 acquires Helia Funds 🇪🇸’ onshore wind portfolio for $375M.
NLB Group 🇸🇮 counters Raiffeisen 🇦🇹’s purchase offer for Addiko Bank 🇦🇹 with a $663M bid for majority control.
CVC 🇪🇺 is in talks with Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 🇧🇪, SWFs ADIA 🇦🇪 and GIC 🇸🇬, and Canada’s La Caisse 🇨🇦 to help fund its $12.7B LBO of Italian drugmaker Recordati 🇮🇹.
Unilever 🇬🇧 acquires Grüns 🇩🇪 for $1.2B.
Terra Quantum 🇨🇭 will merge with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. II 🇺🇸 at a $3.25B valuation.
Sazerac 🇺🇸 joins the race to acquire Brown-Forman 🇺🇸, which is valued at $14B.
Ares 🇺🇸 acquires Whitestone REIT 🇺🇸 in a $1.7B all-cash deal.
US Elemental 🇺🇸 will merge with Constellation Acquisition Corp. I 🇺🇸 at a $575M valuation.
Council Capital 🇺🇸 acquires MedicalServiceQuotes.com 🇺🇸, a platform for managing medical services procurement.
Baymark Partners 🇺🇸 acquires Katydid 🇺🇸, a Dallas-based lifestyle brand founded by Katy Messersmith.
Veteran Ventures Capital 🇺🇸 invests in Hybron Technologies 🇺🇸 as part of a $20M Series Seed financing round.
Leonard Green Partners 🇺🇸 to acquire construction consultancy for $3B.
Capstone Copper Corp. 🇨🇦 is looking to sell a $400M copper mine in Mexico.
IHC 🇦🇪 acquires a majority stake in Ivy 🇬🇧’s hospitality empire, which includes the Ivy restaurant chain, for over £1B.

🧳 Private Markets & VC

🇺🇸 Drone Alone Silicon Valley start-ups like Tiberius Aerospace are disrupting defense by making cheap, AI-powered weapons the new standard for modern warfare as Ukraine and Iran conflicts expose the limits of costly legacy systems. (Cnbc)
🇺🇸 Lost in Space. SpaceX reportedly racked up a $5B loss in 2025 despite $18.5B in revenue, with Elon Musk’s xAI acquisition helping fuel the burn rate. (Boursier)
🇺🇸 Snap Decision. CEO Jim Continenza claims Kodak can bounce back from the brink, but the company’s survival plan still needs to develop. (Cnbc)
🇺🇸 Short Circuit. Carson Block of Muddy Waters claims short sellers are poised for a comeback as AI-driven disruption shakes up stock markets. (Financial Times)

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇬🇧 Nest Egg Hunt. UK pension giant Nest commits £450M to US private credit, chasing higher returns even as the asset class shows signs of strain. (Financial Times)

Fundraising

SiFive 🇺🇸 (Semiconductors): $400M (Nvidia, Atreides Management, Apollo Global Management, D1 Capital Partners, Point72 Turion, T. Rowe Price, Sutter Hill Ventures)
Chapter 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $100M
Applied Compute 🇺🇸 (Enterprise): $80M
Vivatides Therapeutics 🇨🇳 (Biotechnology): $54M (Qiming Venture Partners, Highlight Capital, TF Capital, Apricot Capital)
Portal Space Systems 🇺🇸 (Propulsion): $50M (Geodesic Capital, Mach33)
AfterQuery 🇺🇸 (Research): $30M
Hybron Technologies 🇺🇸 (Manufacturing): $20M
Pipe 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $16M (Fin Capital, MaC Venture Capital)
Rork 🇺🇸 (AI): $15M
Juno 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $12M (Bonfire Ventures, Impression Ventures, X Fund)
PeakMetrics 🇺🇸 (AI): $6M (Moneta Ventures, Techstars, Parameter Ventures, VITALIZE Venture Capital, Gurtin Ventures)
Flora Fertility 🇺🇸 (InsurTech): $5M (ManchesterStory, Slauson & Co., TruStage Ventures, BDC Capital, Marathon Fund, Adara Venture Capital)
Sigma Automate 🇺🇸 (IT Automation): $2.75M
Biotech One 🇫🇷 (Biotech): €1M (Région Sud Investissement, CAAP Création)
HYCCO 🇫🇷 (Deeptech): €1M
Largo 🇫🇷 (High-tech): €1M
Easley 🇫🇷 (Mobilité): €500,000 (Banque Populaire Grand Ouest, Bpifrance, CCI Vendée)

Fund Watch

Dawson Partners 🇺🇸: $7.7B (6th flagship fund raised, now raising 7th)
Mercer 🇺🇸: $3.8B (8th global private assets fund, PIP VIII)
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise 🇦🇪: $1.6B (annual aircraft leasing program, in partnership with Blackstone)
Eka Ventures 🇬🇧: £80M (investing in regulated startups, focused on health and decarbonisation)
Bill Ackman 🇺🇸: (launching fund, betting on investor complacency)

🔔IPO

Mediterranean Reit 🇪🇸 (Real Estate): recently listed on Euronext Access with a valuation of over €10M.
AEVEX 🇺🇸 (Drones): seeking to raise $336M at a $2.35B valuation in its IPO backed by Madison Dearborn Partners.
Go 🇯🇵 (Transport): plans to raise $300M-$500M in a Japan IPO, last valued at $850M in 2023.
Seven & i Holdings 🇯🇵 (Retail): delaying the US IPO of its 7-Eleven chain.
Asia OneHealthcare 🇲🇾 (Healthcare): exploring an IPO or sale with a potential valuation of $7.5B.
Walker Corp. 🇲🇾 (Real Estate): considering a Malaysia IPO to raise $125M at a $500M valuation for their luxury real estate JV WM Senibong.

🧳 Debt

Engie 🇫🇷: raised $540M in a green hybrid bond sale.
Eurazeo 🇫🇷: raised €500M in its inaugural senior bond issuance.
Commerzbank 🇩🇪: mBank is collaborating with UniCredit on a $1.4B SRT linked to a CRE loan portfolio.
Paramount Skydance 🇺🇸: secured $49B in permanent financing through a syndicated bridge loan for its $110B acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery.
CloudHQ 🇺🇸: plans to raise $1.4B in ABSs backed by two Virginia facilities.
General Mills 🇺🇸: raised $2B in a debut euro hybrid bond sale.
LA Metro 🇺🇸: sold $900M in municipal bonds to fund projects for the LA 2028 Olympics.
Chobani 🇺🇸: sold an $800M junk bond.
UBS 🇺🇸: paused talks to lend $765M for the Echo Global Logistics and ITS Logistics merger.
JIOS 🇺🇸: raised $225M in private credit from Blackstone for 46 industrial outdoor storage facilities.
Gemini 🇺🇸: secured $330M in loans amid market challenges.
Envision Energy 🇺🇸: secured a $500M financing program with BBVA for global expansion.
Ziegler 🇺🇸: advised on a $10.35M refinance loan for an assisted living community in Toledo, Ohio.
SoftBank 🇯🇵: plans to sell its first euro-denominated bond.
Democratic Republic of Congo 🇨🇩: raised $1.25B in its first dollar bond sale.

❌ Failures

Stellantis 🇩🇪: the company announced the elimination of 650 engineering positions at its Opel R&D site in Germany, while investing €120M in its Sochaux facility.
Stefano Gabbana 🇮🇹: the chairman of Dolce & Gabbana resigned and is exploring options for his 40% stake amid lender negotiations.
McKinsey 🇺🇸: the consulting firm agreed to contribute $125M to Purdue Pharma’s bankruptcy settlement.

🎯 For a Few More Minutes…

🇩🇪 Opera Cirque. Tobias Kratzer’s first season at Hamburg State Opera features Trump battling Godzilla and plans for a 2027 run under a circus tent, calling opera the “smartest spectacle.” (Die Zeit)
🇳🇱 Power Play. Moerdijk faces possible demolition as the Netherlands targets the village for a huge energy hub, proving climate transition sometimes means clearing the map. (BBC)
🇺🇸 Smooth Criminal Record. With a $700M biopic and packed musicals, the Jackson brand outperforms rivals, controversy seemingly wiped from the setlist. (Le Figaro)
🇺🇬 Monkey Business. A Ugandan chimp community’s internal conflict leads to violence and deaths, offering scientists a front-row seat to primate civil war. (Le Monde)