🧮 Divide by Nothing

The trick's in the math, but the bill still lands.

8 mai 2026

Dividing France’s public debt by 8.6 years, the average maturity of its government bonds, gives 13.4% of GDP. The arithmetic checks out. The economics, less so. This is the conjuring trick Jean-Luc Mélenchon performed on Brut television, days after being anointed La France Insoumise’s 2027 presidential candidate in a consultation where Manuel Bompard politely observed that no rival had dared put their name forward. In 2022, Mélenchon told his troops to « do better. » None did. He’s back. Debt is a stock, GDP is an annual flow, maturity is a theoretical duration. Blending the three into a soothing figure requires either confusion or its deliberate cousin. Neither the IMF, the OECD nor the French Treasury uses this metric. Nobody does, in fact, except a hard-left candidate hunting for a soundbite.

When an eight-year bond matures, the state does not repay it from current revenue. It issues fresh debt to retire the old. This rolling exercise will hit €310bn in 2026, a record, more than half of which refinances paper already in circulation. Average maturity measures exposure to interest-rate risk, not some imagined repayment schedule. Treating 13% of GDP as the « real » figure would imply that an eighth of the capital, €432bn, is being paid down each year. France is in fact running a €152bn deficit in 2025.

The properly annualised number does exist, and it is rather less flattering. Interest payments reached €67bn in 2025, will rise to €74bn in 2026, and will nudge €80bn in 2027 according to the Cour des comptes. That makes debt servicing the second-largest line in the French budget, behind only education, ahead of defence, ahead of research, ahead of police and gendarmerie combined. Standard & Poor’s downgraded France a notch in October, a month after Fitch did the same. Meloni’s Italy, lumbered with debt at 135% of GDP, now borrows more cheaply than Paris does. The markets, awkwardly, do not divide by 8.

The case that scrapping the wealth tax, introducing the flat tax and cutting corporation tax to 25% has hollowed out revenue is defensible, and well documented. It might have anchored a serious campaign. Mélenchon chose the statistical pirouette instead, swapping a solid argument for a maths-class sketch. Which leaves an uncomfortable choice for a man chasing the presidency for the fourth time: either he knows the calculation is bunk and lies anyway, or he doesn’t, and proposes to govern public finances he plainly doesn’t understand. Neither possibility raises a smile.

🧮 Divide by Nothing

🗞️ Top Story

🇫🇷 Past Due. French lawmakers have finally approved a framework for sending looted colonial artifacts back to their countries of origin, after decades of diplomatic reminders. (Le Monde)
🇳🇱 Democracy Shaken. Rob Jetten called the bombing of D66’s headquarters a cowardly attempt to silence debate. The blast left only material damage, but the intimidation campaign keeps getting louder. (Le Monde)
🇭🇺 Power Shift. Viktor Orban’s push for a massive Chinese battery factory backfired, costing his party key seats and ushering in Peter Magyar’s pro-EU government. (New York Times)
🇪🇺 Training Day. The European Public Prosecutor’s Office is investigating whether the Rassemblement National used funds to finance media training for Jordan Bardella and party members during the 2022 presidential campaign, a move the RN calls politically motivated. (France Info)
🇬🇧 Jet Set, Reset. Zack Polanski, the UK Greens’ new star, targets private jets and elite privilege, echoing right-wing tactics but landing just behind Farage in the polls. (Le Temps)
🇺🇸 Strike Back. The military launched fresh attacks on Iran after American warships were targeted, leaving any hope of diplomatic progress looking dim. (Washington Post)
🇺🇸 Class Disrupted. A cybersecurity incident knocked Canvas offline, leaving students at Harvard, Berkeley, and thousands of schools unable to access their coursework or assignments. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Trading Places. After months of tariff battles and icy silence, Trump and Lula emerge from talks touting a partnership reboot, with both sides eager to turn diplomatic friction into business opportunities. (El Pais)
🇨🇳 Brass Tax. Two ex-Defense chiefs, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, receive suspended death sentences for corruption as Xi Jinping’s anti-graft campaign turns its sights on top generals. (El Pais)
🇮🇷 Strait Talk. Iran’s leaders hold lengthy discussions as the US waits for an official response to its offer on peace and Hormuz’s reopening. (Bloomberg)
🇱🇾 Liquid Assets. Moussa al-Kouni calls on European countries to tap Libya’s vast oil reserves, presenting black gold as the country’s only functioning currency. (Le Temps)
🇲🇱 Known Wolf. More than 30 people were killed in two near-simultaneous attacks in central Mali, claimed by jihadist group JNIM, as the military junta faces growing pressure from insurgents and rebels. (Le Temps)
🇨🇩 Stay Another Day. President Félix Tshisekedi signals he may seek a third term in the DRC despite a constitution that explicitly forbids it, citing “changing realities.” (Le Monde)
🇷🇼 Case Reopened. French authorities will resume probes into Agathe Habyarimana after a never-seen document surfaced, linking the ex–first lady to the 1994 genocide. (Le Monde)

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇬🇧 Royal Flush. Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor was allegedly threatened by a masked man while walking his dogs near Sandringham, sending him and his security running for cover. (BBC)
🇬🇧 Off the Rails. London Waterloo and other southern stations face hours of disruption after a radio system glitch left drivers and signallers unable to communicate, forcing cancellations and delays across the network. (The Guardian)
🇬🇧 Curb Appeal. London police are investigating after a car mounted the curb and sped at three Jewish boys outside Hasmonean High School, in what is being treated as an antisemitic assault. The boys escaped injury, but the driver fled without stopping. (BBC)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Right on Cue. Ashley St. Clair, ex-MAGA provocateur, alleges MAGA creators run coordinated messaging campaigns to monetize political outrage on cue. (Washington Post)
🇨🇳 Red Carpet, Black Cloud. Trump expects pageantry in China while the unresolved Iran conflict hangs over his meeting with Xi Jinping. (Washington Post)

🏛️ Economy

🇪🇺 Fuel’s Errand. Retail sales in the eurozone fell 0.1% in March, as war-driven energy costs made every shopping trip a pricier mission. (Wall Street Journal)
🇬🇧 Unfair Britannia. A landmark report shows the UK’s richest 10% earn nearly six times more than the poorest, and live far longer in good health. (Le Monde)
🇳🇴 Rate Expectations. Norway’s central bank raised its key rate to 4.25%, blaming Middle East turmoil for stubborn inflation that refuses to budge. (Le Figaro)
🇺🇸 Toll Control. A federal judge ruled Trump’s 10% stopgap tariff unlawful, mandating refunds with interest and inviting more lawsuits from companies. (Le Parisien)
🇺🇸 Artificial Discount. A judge criticizes Dogecoin’s lawyers for using AI tools to slash a $100M class action, calling the move reckless rather than revolutionary. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 GDPeeved. For the first time since the pandemic, debt is now larger than the economy itself, and Trump’s policies are set to push it even higher. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 Stake Hike. A record $53B in “other income” boosted Q1 earnings for Alphabet and Amazon, thanks mostly to soaring valuations in private AI firms: never underestimate the power of a well-timed mark-up. (Financial Times)
🇻🇪 Greenback Therapy. The Maduro government injects more dollars into the market and loosens its grip on the bolivar, aiming to tame rising prices. (Bloomberg)
🌍 Access Denied According to Microsoft, global AI adoption is splitting sharply along economic lines. Only 15.4% in poorer countries use generative AI, compared to 27.5% in wealthier ones, and the gap keeps growing. (Libé)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Claim to Fame. jobless claims edged up to 200,000 last week, still beating expectations as employers resist major layoffs despite global jitters. (Wall Street Journal)

🏢 Real Estate

🇺🇸 Cloud Crowd. In Box Elder County, Utah, a celebrity-backed « Stratos » data center plan sparks uproar at public meetings, forcing officials to retreat and vote via video. (Le Figaro)
🇸🇬 Flip Flop. Singapore clamps down on rapid property resales, hoping new curbs will cool the market after a spike in prices. (Bloomberg)

🇺🇸 United States

🇺🇸 Frozen. New York’s Rent Guidelines Board backs a plan to keep rent hikes at zero for nearly 1M stabilized apartments, moving « freeze the rent » closer to reality. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 Loan Ranger. Freddie Mac reports that mortgage rates have risen again, now hitting 6.37%, making homeownership even more of a moving target. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 Tax and the City. Governor Hochul’s $268B budget deal adds a new levy on second homes and pushes back against federal immigration efforts. (New York Times)

🔗 On-chain

🇺🇸 Title Fight. Blockchain startup Propy bags $100M to merge title companies into an AI-powered platform, betting real estate’s slowest step can finally go digital. (Cnbc)

💱 Listed Markets

🇬🇧 Shell Game. Shell posted a $6.92B profit surge after oil prices spiked during the U.S.-Iran war, showing that geopolitical chaos remains good business. (New York Times)
🇺🇸 Carry On Waiting. Carlyle reported a 28% drop in earnings as elusive carried interest continues to dodge the firm’s bottom line, much to investors’ dismay. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 Buyout Blackout. Carlyle Group posted a $132M first-quarter loss as revenue shrank and investment income turned negative. Turns out, not every deal is a winner. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Return Policy. Citigroup pledges to deliver returns on tangible equity between 11% and 13% by 2027 and 2028, putting optimism on the balance sheet. (Boursier)
🇦🇺 Current Account. Energy price surges and turbulent markets helped Macquarie deliver a 30% profit spike, proving volatility can be just another revenue stream. (Bloomberg)

🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)

Angelini Pharma 🇮🇹 acquires Catalyst Pharmaceuticals 🇺🇸 for $4.1B.
Roche 🇨🇭 to acquire PathAI 🇺🇸 for up to $1.05B.
Carlyle Group 🇺🇸 partners with Diversified Energy 🇺🇸 to acquire $1.2B in oil and gasfields in Oklahoma from Camino Natural Resources 🇺🇸.
Kraken 🇺🇸 acquires Reap Technologies 🇦🇪 for $600M, a provider of cross-border and business payments services.
I Squared 🇺🇸 and Blackstone Inc. 🇺🇸 are nearing a bid for Stroeer SE & Co. 🇩🇪 valued at €2.5B.
KKR 🇺🇸 acquires Arctos Partners 🇺🇸, a premier institutional investor in professional sports franchise stakes, for $16B in assets under management.
Power Factors 🇺🇸 welcomes Mubadala 🇦🇪 as a strategic minority investor to support its growth and innovation in renewable energy management.
Jardine 🇸🇬 is exploring the sale of its Southeast Asia car dealership business.

🧳 Private Markets & VC

🇫🇷 Algorithm and Blues. Elon Musk and X 🇺🇸 now face a French judicial probe after snubbing investigators and refusing to disclose how the platform ranks content. (Le Monde)
🇪🇺 Yield of Dreams. Firms across Europe are rushing to sell hybrid bonds as borrowing costs stay low, eager to cash in before the rate window closes. (Bloomberg)
🇬🇧 Silent Exit. Fidelity International Strategic Ventures has closed down without fanfare, offloading its holdings in several fintech startups to clear the decks. (Sifted)
🇬🇧 Fan Service. OnlyFans will sell a 15% stake to Architect Capital for $3.1B, with James Packer and other heavyweights backing the deal. Finally making the world’s most infamous paywall investor-friendly. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 Glitch Mob. The IMF singles out advanced AI such as Anthropic’s Mythos for making cyber attacks more coordinated and potentially destabilizing for the world’s banking system, pushing regulators to brace for impact. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 Family Business. Donald Trump’s sons, Eric and Don Jr, are anchor investors in Dominari Holdings funds backing tech and defense companies promoted by the president’s economic agenda. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 Mind the Lag. Carlyle Group shares dip after earnings miss, while KKR echoes the same timing headache: profits are still stuck in transit. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 Rocket Pocket. SpaceX plans to spend at least $55B on its Texas Terafab chip complex with Tesla as it gears up for a major IPO. Musk seems determined to prove that sky-high costs are just part of the launch sequence. (Wall Street Journal)
🇺🇸 Doctor’s Orders. In April, family offices prescribed nearly a third of their investment dollars to healthcare startups, reviving their appetite for new deals. (Cnbc)

Fundraising

Moonshot AI 🇨🇳 (AI): $2B (Meituan’s VC arm Long-Z Investment, Tsinghua Capital, China Mobile, CPE Yuanfeng)
Kalshi 🇺🇸 (Prediction Market): $1B (Coatue Management, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, IVP, Paradigm, Morgan Stanley, ARK Invest)
Ramp 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $750M (Iconiq Capital, GIC)
Astranis 🇺🇸 (Space): $450M (Snowpoint Ventures, Franklin Templeton, Andreessen Horowitz, BlackRock, Baillie Gifford, Fidelity Management & Research Company, BAM Elevate, Nimble Partners, Friends & Family Capital)
Anagram Therapeutics 🇺🇸 (Biotech): $250M
Corgi 🇺🇸 (Unknown): $160M
Quantum Motion 🇬🇧 (Quantum Computing): $160M (DCVC, Mundi Ventures, British Business Bank, Firgun Ventures, Oxford Science Enterprises, Inkef, Bosch Ventures, Porsche)
Kodiak AI 🇺🇸 (Mobility): $100M (Ares Management, unnamed institutional investors)
Tessera Labs 🇺🇸 (AI): $60M (Andreessen Horowitz, Foundation Capital, Myriad Venture Partners, Osage University Partners)
Kanvas Biosciences 🇺🇸 (Biotech): $48M (DCVC, Lions Capital LLC, Gates Foundation, ATHOS KG, Germin8, Ki Tua Fund, Pangaea Ventures)
XBOW 🇺🇸 (Cybersecurity): $35M (Accenture Ventures, DNX Ventures, Liberty Global Tech Ventures, NVentures, Samsung Ventures, SentinelOne S Ventures)
Lunar Outpost 🇺🇸 (Mobility): $30M (Industrious Ventures, Type One Ventures, Eniac Ventures, Reliable Equity)
Vori 🇺🇸 (Retail): $22M (Cherryrock Capital, Greylock Partners, The Factory)
Fazeshift 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $22M
Scout Space 🇺🇸 (Space): $18M (Washington Harbour Partners, Virginia Innovation Partnership Corporation, Noblis Ventures, Decisive Point, Fusion Fund)
Pit 🇸🇪 (AI): $16M (Andreessen Horowitz, Lakestar)
SageOx 🇺🇸 (AI): $15M (Canaan Partners, A.Capital, Pioneer Square Labs, Founders’ Co-op)
District 🇺🇸 (Real Estate): $14.7M
Balcony 🇺🇸 (Proptech): $14M
MOSH 🇺🇸 (Nutrition): $13M (Main Street Advisors, Great Circle Ventures, Rogers Healy, Morrison Seger, PCG, Tonic Ventures)
ParcelBio 🇺🇸 (Biotech): $13M
Trillium Renewable Chemicals 🇺🇸 (Chemicals): $13M (HS Hyosung Advanced Materials, Capricorn Partners)
Illoca 🇺🇸 (Architecture): $13M (Bessemer Venture Partners, AIX Ventures, Root Ventures, Alt Ventures)
OpsMill 🇫🇷 (AI): €12M (IRIS, Benhamou Global Ventures, Serena, Partech)
Jesse & Ben’s 🇺🇸 (Food): $10M (Greycroft, Rich Products Ventures, Willow Growth Partners, Sling Ventures, Midnight Venture Partners, grt sht ventures)
CodeWords 🇬🇧 (AI): $9M (Visionaries, Firstminute Capital, Sequel, Illusian)
Modicus Prime 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $8M (Frist Cressey Ventures, Silverton Partners, Oncology Ventures)
Arāya Sie Fund 🇬🇧 (Venture Capital): £7.5M
Altara 🇺🇸 (AI): $7M (Greylock, Neo, BoxGroup, Liquid 2 Ventures)
XCaliber Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $6.5M (ManchesterStory, Benhamou Global Ventures, Arka Venture Labs)
Five 🇬🇧 (Payments): $6M
InstaSwitch 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $4.7M (Chicago Ventures, 8-Bit Capital, Better Tomorrow Ventures, Panache Ventures)
Another Nine 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $2M
Pacific Hybreed 🇺🇸 (Aquaculture): $1M (Hawaiʻi Angels, Blue Startups)

Fund Watch

Apis Partners 🇬🇧: $1.2B (latest funds, investing in financial infrastructure)
Zencap Asset Management 🇫🇷: €403M (Zencap Direct Lending IV, private debt fund)
5th Century Partners 🇺🇸: $276M (Fund II, healthcare and business services)
Griffin Gaming Partners 🇺🇸: $100M (Special Opportunities Fund, indie game financing)
Wisdom Ventures 🇺🇸: $77.7M (2nd fund, investing in AI-driven health and wellbeing startups)

🔔IPO

Dangote Cement 🇬🇧 (Construction): planning a secondary listing in London to raise funds from outside investors, with a market cap of nearly $13B.
Hawkeye 360 🇺🇸 (Satellites): raising $416M in a IPO priced at the top of its marketed range.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. 🇺🇸 (Finance): repurchased $85M in shares amid falling values in tech markets and publicly traded loans.
Suja Life 🇺🇸 (Beverages): raised $186.7M in its IPO but shares fell 14% on debut.
Hawkeye 360 🇺🇸 (Surveillance): soared 30% after raising $416M in a IPO priced at the top of the range.
Sany Group 🇨🇳 (Trucks): considering a Hong Kong IPO for its electric truck unit.

🧳 Debt

Spie 🇫🇷: raised €600M through a successful sustainability-linked bond issuance.
Capgemini 🇫🇷: successfully placed a €800M bond issue.
Lockton 🇺🇸: closed a $600M term loan and a $1.6B revolving credit line.
The Diplomat Beach Resort 🇺🇸: arranged $600M in refinancing through JLL.
Midea Group 🇨🇳: raised $2.2B in a convertible bond sale.

❌ Failures

IBM France 🇫🇷: the company canceled a voluntary departure plan for over 300 employees, causing frustration and concern about the future.
DeepL 🇩🇪: the translation startup will lay off 250 staff as part of a restructuring to maintain its competitive edge in the AI sector.
Bayrak 🇩🇪: the auto supplier filed for insolvency again, putting over 400 jobs at risk due to high restructuring costs and unexpected revenue declines.
Cloudflare 🇺🇸: the company plans to cut about 1,100 jobs due to an AI-driven restructuring plan.

🎯 For a Few More Minutes…

🇫🇷 Phish and Chips. France launches probes into escalating online scams, while cybercrime syndicates from Asia keep changing tactics and staying one step ahead. (Libé)
🇫🇷 Prize Yourself. Florent Montaclair is barred from teaching at the University of Besançon after creating a counterfeit « Médaille d’or de philologie » and awarding it to himself. (Le Parisien)
🇬🇧 Get Back. Paul McCartney’s original Höfner bass, missing for 51 years, resurfaces thanks to a fan-driven search worthy of its own encore. (Co)
🇨🇭 Swap Deal. FIFA trades Panini stickers for Fanatics 🇺🇸 cards after 2030, promising fans exclusive memorabilia and debut-patch collectibles. The transfer window just hit your childhood. (Le Monde)
🇺🇦 Grannybot. The Ukrainian army deployed its battlefield robot. Usually reserved for rescuing wounded troops. To whisk a grandmother to safety under Russian fire. (Spiegel)