🏦 The Waiting Room

Nobody leaves. Everyone checks their watch.

24 avril 2026

Somewhere in Frankfurt, Joachim Nagel describes 30 April as « an option » and sounds vaguely apologetic about the word. Somewhere in Paris, a wealth adviser spends his morning explaining to a retired dentist why an SCPI distributing 4.5% on revised-downward units with a quarterly liquidity queue is still, technically, preferable to the 2.5% term deposit on offer at his bank. Neither conversation, honestly assessed, ends well for the speaker. Headline inflation back at 2.6%, core at 2.3%, the Strait of Hormuz doubling as a monetary-policy variable, Lagarde expected to hold this month before a 25bp nudge in June, the terminals quietly penciling in another before Christmas. Less aggressive than the two-or-three-hike panic briefly priced in swaps. Aggressive enough to finish off the marginal file.

For ten years, from June 2014 to July 2022, eurozone deposit rates sat below zero. An entire generation of private-equity sponsors, property developers and French life-insurance allocators learned their craft inside a monetary anomaly they filed as the settled weather of their careers. Leveraged recaps became hygiene. Promoters rolled three-year refinancings in lieu of meeting the market. Yield-hungry insurers paid 3.5% for Class B office towers around La Défense and called the exposure measured. The 2018-2022 window, during which buying half-empty business parks at cap rates below the sovereign curve counted as prudent stewardship, will earn its eventual chapter in the behavioural-finance textbook under « Recency Bias, Clinical Cases. »

Residential prices, which textbook theory had predicted would slump, have instead sulked. Paris off 10%, regional metros slightly more, peripheral markets essentially unmoved. A private vendor does not sell at a loss. He waits. And the market calcifies around his patience. The political class accommodates: the left blames Airbnb, the right blames the DPE energy-efficiency label, neither explanation survives fifteen minutes of scrutiny, both spare voters the awkward claim that French residential is an asset class which depreciates exclusively by ministerial appointment. New-build dispenses with the theatre. Borrowing capacity amputated by a quarter since 2021, operations unsellable, promoters in administration, CDC Habitat absorbing 17K VEFA units in 2023 to keep the industry ventilated. Property crowdfunding books the arithmetic in real time: 78% default or delay at Fundimmo, 70% at Homunity, 51% at Anaxago. Koregraf shut its doors in 2025. Another 25bp closes the ledger on the 2021-2023 vintages still breathing on refi.

None of this was a secret. The files sat on every asset-management desk by mid-2022. What continued was the industry of professionals paid to read those files and then explain to clients that assumptions required no revision. Ten years of lecturing the 2.5% term-deposit saver on the indignity of risk-free yield, delivered by people whose remuneration depended on the lecture being believed, is the narrative now quietly being retired. Even with every grain of sarcasm subtracted, that is a hard thing to find funny.

🏦 The Waiting Room

🗞️ Top Story

  • 🇩🇰 Track Record. Two trains collided head-on in northern Zealand, leaving 17 hospitalized and five in critical condition as investigators search for a cause. (Jyllands-posten)
  • 🇷🇴 Exit Strategy. The Social Democratic Party walks out of Romania’s ruling coalition, risking a far-right opening and leaving the government in pieces. (Ouest-France)
  • 🇪🇺 Court Short. The Coalition for the International Criminal Court urges the to shield the ICC from US sanctions by activating its blocking statute, calling Washington’s move an attack on global justice. (El Pais)
  • 🇪🇺 Ready Player One. French and Spanish forces rehearse high-intensity warfare in Orion 26, a multinational drill training 25 armies for real war across French territory. (El Pais)
  • 🇪🇺 Blockbuster. Ambassadors agree to unlock a €90B loan for Ukraine after Hungary drops its veto, clearing the way for both funds and new Russia sanctions. (El Pais)
  • 🇺🇦 The Art of the Steal Ukraine floated “Donnyland” as a new name for part of Donbass, hoping to win Trump’s favor in peace talks, but the charm offensive fizzled. (Spiegel)
  • 🇺🇸 Meet and Greet. officials say Trump plans to invite Vladimir Putin to December’s G-20 summit at his Miami property, teeing up backlash before the invitation is even sent. (Washington Post)
  • 🇺🇸 Tower of Babel. A new report finds that miscommunication and absent tech led to the LaGuardia runway crash in March, as controllers and responders spoke past each other with fatal results. (Le Figaro)
  • 🇺🇸 Million Dollar Maybe. Despite Trump’s high-profile launch of the $1M « gold card » visa, just a single applicant has been approved so far. (Le Parisien)
  • 🇺🇸 Fox Hunt. Tucker Carlson, once a Trump loyalist, turns on the former president after the Iran war, sparking a public feud that exposes deep Republican rifts. (Spiegel)
  • 🇺🇸 Byline of Fire New York Times reporter Elizabeth Williamson faced an F.B.I. investigation after publishing a story on Kash Patel’s girlfriend’s security perks, raising alarms that journalism itself was under federal scrutiny. (New York Times)
  • 🇵🇭 Trial by Fire. Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte will be tried at the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity tied to his deadly drug war. (Le Temps)
  • 🇮🇱 Peace Lease. Israel and Lebanon will extend their ceasefire for another three weeks, as President Trump announces the pause during White House talks. (Washington Post)
  • 🇱🇧 Deal or No Deal. With a shaky truce about to lapse, Lebanon hopes Trump will use US leverage to force Israel to withdraw its troops. (Washington Post)
🇬🇧 United Kingdom
  • 🇬🇧 Who’s He Again? Morgan McSweeney, former chief of staff to the PM, says he does not recognise claims about his conduct after leaving Downing Street. (BBC)
  • 🇬🇧 Flame Game. Counter-terrorism units detain two additional suspects in Watford for allegedly conspiring to attack a Jewish site, with nine now arrested in total. (The Guardian)
  • 🇬🇧 Sick Data Confidential health data from 500,000 UK Biobank volunteers appeared for sale on Alibaba, with ministers scrambling for explanations and assurances. (The Guardian)
🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇺🇸 Trump Slump. Trump’s net approval rating on economic performance and overall job drops sharply, hitting new lows as gas prices and Iran war bite. (Cnbc)
  • 🇺🇸 Off Message. Trump’s fixation on foreign feuds, voter ID, and popes has GOP insiders anxious that neglecting the economy could cost them control of Congress in 2026. (Cnbc)
  • 🇮🇷 General Admission. Mojtaba Khamenei may hold the title, but it is Iran’s military commanders who now decide the country’s war, peace, and diplomacy moves. (New York Times)

🏛️ Economy

  • 🇪🇸 Click Fix. A new study shows 56% of Spaniards buy unnecessary items to cope with stress or boredom, while only a fraction actually use what they buy. (France Info)
  • 🇺🇸 Strait Talk. Dow’s Jim Fitterling tells CNBC it could take nearly a year to clear the logistics bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz, even if reopened today. (Cnbc)
  • 🇺🇸 King Coal Dethroned. coal is losing ground in the energy mix despite policy support, as renewables and gas steadily claim a bigger share. (Bloomberg)
  • 🇨🇳 Scam Dynasty. China publicly orders Cambodia to wipe out cyberfraud hubs on its territory, warning that online scams have become a cross-border embarrassment nobody can ignore. (Le Monde)
  • 🇰🇪 Debt and Circuses. Kenya unveils a $39B state spending spree aimed at turbocharging growth and pleasing voters, making fiscal discipline the main casualty. (Bloomberg)
  • 🌍 Bot Advice Nearly half of global consumers now use AI tools for investment and savings decisions, with Gen Z leading adoption at 68 percent. Fidelity and regulators warn that trust and oversight still matter more than the algorithm’s confidence. (Financial Times)
🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇺🇸 Claim to Fame Jobless claims in the rose to 214,000 last week, surprising economists who expected 210,000, though layoffs remain steady. (Wall Street Journal)
  • 🇺🇸 ICE, ICE Budget. The Senate narrowly approved a Republican budget blueprint that adds $70B for immigration enforcement, paving the way to reopen the Department of Homeland Security. (New York Times)
  • 🇺🇸 Buyout and About. Trump wants to let 401(k) savers invest in private equity and crypto, opening retirement plans to high-fee, high-risk alternatives. (New York Times)

🏢 Real Estate

  • 🇸🇬 Flat Out. Singapore home prices shot up faster than expected last quarter as a surge in sales left forecasts looking cautious in hindsight. (Bloomberg)
🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇺🇸 Ready, Set, Sold. Despite steep mortgage rates and high prices, move-in ready homes in the are snapped up while others linger on the market. (Wall Street Journal)
  • 🇺🇸 Rate Hike. The Iran war has pushed mortgage rates and building material costs higher, causing homebuilder confidence to plunge just as spring began. (Cnbc)

🔗 On-chain

  • 🇺🇸 Soldier of Fortune. Gannon Ken Van Dyke is indicted for leveraging classified military plans to profit on Polymarket, turning his mission briefing into a $409K payday. (BBC)
  • 🇺🇸 Bet Regret. Vanguard’s Tim Buckley says prediction markets put investors at risk of financial exploitation, urging regulators to pay closer attention. (Financial Times)
  • 🇺🇸 Primary Stakes Congressional hopefuls from three states wagered on themselves through Kalshi, only to get caught and banned for five years for breaking the platform’s rules. (Cnbc)
  • 🇺🇸 Coin Tossed. Coinbase and Gemini face lawsuits in New York over their prediction markets, with prosecutors calling the crypto bets plain old gambling. (New York Times)

💱 Listed Markets

  • 🇫🇷 Family Business. Bernard Arnault, age 77, says he will remain at the helm of LVMH, with all five children waiting patiently in the wings. (Ouest-France)
  • 🇪🇺 Chip Shot. STMicroelectronics 🇫🇷 shares soared after its Q1 revenue jumped 23% to $3.10B, fueled by booming AI demand and bullish data-center spending. (Wall Street Journal)
  • 🇺🇸 Profit Stall. Lockheed Martin posted a Q1 profit drop to $6.44 per share as contract overruns and production delays outweighed booming defense demand. (Boursier)
🇺🇸 United States
  • 🇺🇸 Payback to the Future. Tesla scrapped Musk’s $29B backup plan once the Delaware court reinstated his $56B 2018 compensation. The CEO gets his original fortune, not the contingency prize. (TechCrunch)

🛎️ Big Deals (M&A)

  • Air France-KLM 🇫🇷 and Lufthansa 🇩🇪 are advancing competing bids for a minority stake in TAP 🇵🇹, with a potential valuation of $1.7B.
  • Turenne Santé 🇫🇷 and Relyens 🇫🇷 cede Pathoquest 🇫🇷 to Charles River Laboratories 🇺🇸, marking Relyens Innovation Santé’s 10th exit since 2014.
  • Servier 🇫🇷 acquires Day One Biopharmaceuticals 🇺🇸 for $2.5B, marking its largest acquisition to date.
  • Volkswagen 🇩🇪 shortlisted EQT 🇸🇪, CVC 🇬🇧, and Bain Capital 🇺🇸 for the next round of bidding for its ~$10B valued heavy diesel engine unit Everllence 🇩🇪.
  • Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 🇧🇪 acquires BUKO Group 🇩🇪 for €0.5B to secure a majority stake.
  • EQT 🇸🇪 is considering a $2.9B takeover offer for Kakaku.com 🇯🇵, a price comparison website.
  • Intertek 🇬🇧 is reviewing EQT 🇸🇪’s $11.2B takeover bid.
  • CVC 🇬🇧 and GTCR 🇺🇸 submit a $6B LBO offer for Teleflex 🇺🇸, a listed medical equipment provider.
  • Permira 🇬🇧 bids for talent agency The·Team 🇺🇸, potentially valued at $3B.
  • HSBC 🇬🇧 shortlists Allianz 🇩🇪, Daiichi Life Group 🇯🇵, and Sumitomo Life Insurance 🇯🇵 as bidders for its HSBC Life Singapore 🇸🇬 unit, which could fetch a $2B valuation.
  • CVC 🇬🇧 and Prudential Financial 🇺🇸 are frontrunners for a $1.4B stake in a new pension-risk transfer JV with Standard Life 🇬🇧.
  • GTCR 🇺🇸 acquires Fiduciary Trust Company 🇺🇸, a Boston-based private wealth manager, with plans to enhance its service offerings.
  • Sierra 🇺🇸 acquires Fragment 🇫🇷, a YC-backed AI startup.
  • Netflix 🇺🇸 is in talks to acquire Radford Studio Center 🇺🇸 from Goldman Sachs.
  • SK Capital 🇺🇸 acquires Brothers International 🇺🇸.
  • Behrman Capital 🇺🇸 acquires Metallizing Service Company 🇺🇸.
  • Lyft 🇺🇸 to acquire Gett 🇬🇧’s UK taxi business, marking its third international acquisition.
  • KKR 🇺🇸 and owners DigitalBridge 🇺🇸 and La Caisse 🇨🇦 to invest $1.5B in telecom-focused Vertical Bridge REIT 🇺🇸 at a $10B-$15B valuation.
  • KSL Capital Partners 🇺🇸 acquires Invited Clubs 🇺🇸, America’s largest private golf course operator, for $2.6B.
  • ExxonMobil 🇺🇸 is in talks to sell its Hong Kong gas stations for a few hundred million dollars.
  • TMX Group 🇨🇦 acquires Cboe 🇦🇺’s Australian and Canadian units for $300M.
  • Seraya 🇸🇬 is considering a sale of offshore wind vessel operator Cyan 🇬🇧.

🧳 Private Markets & VC

  • 🇫🇷 Groking Europe. Musk’s xAI eyed a tie-up with French unicorn Mistral AI, hoping a continental alliance would help it challenge OpenAI and Anthropic. (Sifted)
  • 🇫🇷 Deliver Us. Four French associations have filed a criminal complaint against Uber Eats 🇺🇸 and Deliveroo 🇬🇧 for human trafficking, accusing them of exploiting delivery workers under conditions likened to modern slavery. (Le Monde)
  • 🇳🇴 Tech Wreck. The Norwegian sovereign fund lost $68B this quarter as slumping American tech giants dragged down the world’s biggest portfolio. (Boursier)
  • 🇺🇸 Voya Voyage. Activist fund Toms Capital is pressuring Voya Financial to consider a sale or split, targeting its $1.1T asset empire for breakup. (Financial Times)
  • 🇺🇸 Musk and Bust. Elon Musk drags Sam Altman and OpenAI into court, airing Silicon Valley’s dirty laundry and accusing them of cashing in on a broken mission. (Washington Post)
  • 🇺🇸 Arya, Out. AllianceBernstein winds down its Arya hedge fund, blaming lack of scale for the abrupt exit from the space. (Bloomberg)
  • 🇮🇳 Wizard of Fraud. Indian authorities accuse Builder.ai founder Sachin Dev Duggal of being the key beneficiary a scheme funneling Videocon funds through offshore companies. (Sifted)

Fundraising

  • Vertical Bridge 🇺🇸 (Telecommunications): $1.5B
  • Omni 🇺🇸 (Analytics): $1.5B
  • VAST Data 🇮🇱 (AI infrastructure): $1B (Drive Capital, Access Industries)
  • Reliable Robotics 🇺🇸 (Aerospace): $160M
  • Pudu Robotics 🇨🇳 (Robotics): $150M
  • Omni 🇺🇸 (AI): $120M (ICONIQ, Theory Ventures, First Round Capital, Redpoint Ventures, GV)
  • Robinhood 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $75M
  • Salmon Group 🇵🇭 (Fintech): $60M
  • BLP Digital 🇨🇭 (Fintech): $50M
  • Courier Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $50M (Oak HC/FT)
  • NeoCognition 🇺🇸 (AI): $40M
  • Afresh 🇺🇸 (AI): $34M (Just Climate, High Sage Ventures)
  • Univity 🇫🇷 (Satellite): €27M (Blast, Expansion, Deeptech 2030)
  • Monk 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $25M
  • Fortem Technologies 🇺🇸 (Defense): $25M
  • Humble 🇺🇸 (Mobility): $24M (Eclipse, Energy Impact Partners)
  • Petual 🇺🇸 (AI): $20M (Andreessen Horowitz, First Round Capital, Cowboy Ventures, Elad Gil)
  • Lucra Sports 🇺🇸 (eSports): $20M
  • Mosaic 🇨🇦 (AI): $18M
  • Rilian 🇺🇸 (Cybersecurity): $17.5M (8VC, First In, Tamarack Global, 8090 Industries, Liquid 2 Ventures, Perot Jain, Protego Ventures)
  • BAND 🇺🇸 (AI): $17M (Sierra Ventures, Hetz Ventures, Team8)
  • C-Infinity 🇺🇸 (AI): $16M (Canaan Partners, Inventus Capital, Bee Partners, Radius Capital)
  • Amperos Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $16M
  • Zócalo Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $15M (EO Ventures, Talipot, Vamos Ventures, Animo Ventures, Acumen America, Sorenson Ventures, BarronKent, Kapor Center)
  • SCATR Corp. 🇺🇸 (Unknown): $12.6M
  • Era 🇺🇸 (Software): $11M (Abstract Ventures, BoxGroup, Collaborative Fund, Mozilla Ventures, Topology Ventures, Betaworks)
  • Almanac Health 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $10M (F-Prime, General Catalyst, Lightspeed Venture Partners)
  • BetHog 🇺🇸 (Gaming): $10M (Will Ventures, RockawayX, PCV, 6MV, Bullpen Capital, Advancit Capital)
  • Octen 🇦🇺 (AI): $10M
  • BetHog 🇬🇧 (Gaming): $10M (Will Ventures, RockawayX)
  • Ultralight 🇺🇸 (Healthcare): $9.3M
  • Copperhelm 🇮🇱 (Cybersecurity): $7M (TLV Partners, toDay Ventures, ICON, SaaS Ventures Israel)
  • Ouidrop 🇫🇷 (Robotics): €7M (Epopée Gestion, Swen Capital Partners, GSO Innovation, Crédit Agricole Aquitaine Expansion, Spring Invest)
  • DOJO AI 🇵🇹 (Marketing): $6M
  • Astor 🇺🇸 (Fintech): $5M (Monashees, Y Combinator, Goodwater Capital, Gilgamesh Ventures, 468 Capital, Valutia, Sunshine Lake)
  • 10x Science 🇺🇸 (Life Sciences): $4.8M (Initialized Capital, Y Combinator, Civilization Ventures, Founder Factor)
  • Cloneable 🇺🇸 (AI): $4.6M (Congruent Ventures, First In, Overline, St. Elmo Venture Capital, Bull City Venture Partners)
  • Ferrosa Therapeutics AG 🇨🇭 (Biotech): $3.5M (Forty51 Ventures)
  • Brev 🇺🇸 (Business Operations): $3.3M (Resolute Ventures, shuckerVC, Duro VC, Gaingels, FOG Ventures)
  • Affix Labs 🇳🇱 (Green Chemtech): €1M (VP Capital, Oost NL)

Fund Watch

  • Adams Street Partners 🇺🇸: $2.5B (6th co-investment fund, oversubscribed)
  • OpenAI 🇺🇸: $1.5B
  • Kinderhook Industries 🇺🇸: $1.1B (Kinderhook Strategic Opportunities Fund I, lower middle market investment)
  • Blockchain Capital 🇺🇸: $700M (7th early-stage fund & 2nd growth fund, currently raising)
  • L Catterton 🇺🇸: $500M (Champ fund, athlete-backed consumer investments)
  • Harbinger Sports Partners 🇺🇸: $450M (debut flagship fund, targeted $1B)
  • Mighty Capital 🇺🇸: $91M (3rd fund, tripling size, tech focus)
  • Oncology Ventures 🇩🇰: $62M (Fund II, cancer care acceleration)
  • Coller Capital 🇬🇧:

🔔IPO

  • X-Energy 🇺🇸 (Nuclear): raised $1.02B in its IPO backed by Amazon.
  • Yesway 🇺🇸 (Retail): raised $280M in an upsized IPO priced at the bottom of its marketed range.
  • Quantinuum 🇺🇸 (Tech): has confidentially filed for an IPO.

🧳 Debt

  • 74Software 🇫🇷: refinanced €320M in bank debt, extending maturity to 2029.
  • Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio 🇮🇹: reached a preliminary $11.7B loan deal to buy out his siblings in holding company Delfin.
  • Blackstone 🇺🇸: launched an $850M investment grade bond sale at a 230 bps premium.
  • TD Bank Group 🇨🇦: planning a $1B SRT tied to current and future data center exposure.
  • China 🇨🇳: raised $2.3B in yuan bonds in Hong Kong, marking its largest sale since 2023.
  • Salmon 🇵🇭: raised $100M in equity and debt to enhance digital credit access for underbanked Filipinos.
  • AirTrunk 🇦🇺: looking to raise $360M in a debut data center-backed ABS deal.

❌ Failures

  • Kooma 🇫🇷: en redressement judiciaire, le restaurant a réalisé 1,5M€ de chiffre d’affaires en 2024 et recherche un repreneur.
  • Cabasse 🇫🇷: placed in liquidation after failing to recover, but saved by Loewe Technology, retaining 24 out of 27 jobs.
  • Nestlé 🇫🇷: the company announced 180 job cuts in France as part of a global plan to reduce over 16,000 positions and save over €1B annually by 2027.
  • Bridgepoint 🇬🇧: injected $135M into Zenith Automotive for recapitalization and restructuring.
  • Meta 🇺🇸: the company plans to cut 8,000 jobs, roughly 10% of its workforce, while increasing AI spending to $135B this year.
  • Nike 🇺🇸: the company announced about 1,400 layoffs, primarily in technology, as part of its « Win Now » strategy.
  • Microsoft 🇺🇸: the tech giant is offering voluntary redundancy to about 8,000 employees, or 7% of its workforce, amid an expensive AI investment.
  • Medallia 🇺🇸: Thoma Bravo is set to wipe out $5.1B of equity and transfer control to lenders including Blackstone and KKR.
  • Affordable Care 🇺🇸: Blackstone and KKR are leading a $1.4B private credit restructuring for the dental services company.
  • Spirit Airlines 🇺🇸: the airline is considering a $500M rescue loan from the government in exchange for a 90% equity stake post-bankruptcy.
  • Callaway Arts & Entertainment 🇺🇸: the bankrupt publisher is seeking to sell its assets or merge with a larger publishing house in Chapter 11.

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